Todd Rose, Co-founder of The Center for Individual Opportunity, discusses The Myth of Average at TEDxSonomaCounty. Here is the full transcript of the TEDx Talk.
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Announcer: Please welcome to the TEDxSonomaCounty stage Todd Rose.
Todd Rose – Author of The End of Average
It’s 1952, and the Air Force has a problem. They’ve got good pilots, flying better planes but they’re getting worse results. And they don’t know why.
For a while they blamed the pilots. They even blamed the technology. They eventually got around to blaming the flight instructors. But it turned out that the problem was actually with the cockpit. Let me explain.
Imagine you’re a fighter pilot. You’re operating a machine that in some cases can travel faster than the speed of sound and where issues between success and failure, sometimes life and death, can be measured in split seconds. If you’re a fighter pilot, you know that your performance depends fundamentally on the fit between you and your cockpit. Because after all what good is the best technology in the world, if you can’t reach the critical instruments when you need them the most?
But this presents a challenge for the Air Force. Because obviously, pilots are not the same size. So, the issue is: How do you design one cockpit that can fit the most individuals? For a long time, it was assumed that you could do this by designing for the average pilot. That almost seems intuitively right. If you design something that’s fit for the average sized person, wouldn’t it fit most people? It seems right but it’s actually wrong.
And 60 years ago, an Air Force researcher, Gilbert Daniels, proved to the world just how wrong this really is and what it was costing us. Here’s how he did it. He studied over 4,000 pilots and he measured them on 10 dimensions of size and he asked a very simple question: How many of these pilots are average on all 10 dimensions? The assumption was that most of them would be. Do you know how many really were? Zero. Gilbert Daniels proved that there was no such thing as an average pilot.
Instead, what he found was that every single pilot had what we call a jagged size profile. Right? It means no one is at the same on every dimension. And this makes sense. Just because you’re the tallest person doesn’t mean you’re the heaviest, doesn’t mean you have the broadest shoulders, or the longest torso. But this is tricky because if every pilot has a jagged size profile and you design a cockpit on average you’ve literally designed it for nobody.
So, the Air Force realized they had a problem. And their response was bold. They banned the average. Meaning that moving forward they refused to buy fighter jets where the cockpit was designed for an average sized pilot. And instead, they demanded that the companies who built these planes designed them to the edges of dimensions of size. Meaning that rather than design for, say, the average height, they wanted a cockpit that could accommodate as close to the shortest pilot and the tallest pilot as the technology would allow.
Now, the companies that made these planes as you could imagine weren’t happy, right? They argued and lobbied and they said, it’s going to be impossible, or at least impossibly expensive to build a flexible cockpit. But, once they realized that the Air Force wasn’t going to budge, suddenly it was possible. And it turned out it wasn’t that expensive. And in fact, they made great strides leveraging simple solutions that we all take for granted in our everyday life, like adjustable seats. And as a result, the Air Force not only improved the performance of the pilots that they already had, but they dramatically expanded their talent pool.
And today, we have the most diverse pool of fighter pilots ever. But here’s the thing, many of our top pilots would have never fit in a cockpit designed on average. So, most of us have never sat in the cockpit of a $150 million fighter jet, right? But we’ve all sat in the classroom. And I would argue — I would argue that these are the cockpits of our economy and I think we all know that we have some problems. We’re spending more money than ever before, but we’re getting worse results. Whether we’re talking about declining test scores in math and science, or our drop-out crisis.