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Home » Col Doug Macgregor: IRAN WAR Not Ending Anytime Soon (Transcript)

Col Doug Macgregor: IRAN WAR Not Ending Anytime Soon (Transcript)

Editor’s Notes: Colonel Doug Macgregor joins Daniel Davis to provide a sobering assessment of the escalating conflict with Iran and why a quick resolution remains unlikely. The conversation explores the devastating impact on global energy and commodity markets, including the shutdown of major refineries and the resulting threat of long-term inflation. Macgregor analyzes the limits of coercive military power, suggesting that current strategies may inadvertently drive global powers like Russia and China closer to Tehran. From the risk of regional instability to the potential for domestic shortages, this deep dive examines the high stakes of a war that is reshaping the international order. (Mar 15, 2026)  

TRANSCRIPT:

The War Is Not Ending Anytime Soon

COL DOUG MACGREGOR: I think that at this point the administration wants very much to convince everybody that everything is just fine and this won’t last much longer. No, everything is not just fine. The UAE just shut down the largest oil refinery in the world with no prospect of reopening anytime soon. You have a similar set of circumstances in Qatar.

In other words, whatever you say about what you’re doing to the Iranians, you have to look at the facts on the ground. Are the Iranians continuing to launch theater ballistic missiles? Yes. Are they continuing to hit targets in Israel and around the Gulf region? Yes.

We haven’t even talked about eastern Iran, where you have more underground missile cities, none of which are being touched because frankly, eastern Iran is out of range for the most part of our weapons systems. So this is not ending anytime soon. But I certainly understand why President Trump said that because he wants to reassure the markets. But eventually the markets are going to figure this out.

Gulf Nations Slash Oil Output

DANIEL DAVIS: Well, that’s exactly where I was going to go next because that graphic I’m showing here, this is showing that the Gulf nations have slashed output by 6.7 million barrels a day. That’s 33% of regional production. For the reason you just mentioned that the storage is full and they can’t bring any more out of the ground.

But just for everybody’s understanding, the way this works is that the system is designed to not have war. So that when they pump stuff out, they put it in holding tanks for a while, the ships come in empty, they fill them up, they roll out and it’s just this nonstop whatever, 15, 20 million barrels per day.

Well, if all of a sudden you shut down the strait, then there’s nothing to offload and those storage tanks are not made to go for a long period of time. So now the only thing left is to shut down production and that’s going to have longer effects even after the strait gets opened up. But right now, Doug, I haven’t seen any evidence that it’s going to be.

25% of the World’s Oil Is Now Offline

COL DOUG MACGREGOR: No, the first thing we need to keep in mind is that roughly 25% of the world’s oil is now offline. That’s a quarter of the world’s oil supply. Now that is offline, not for a few days or for a few weeks. In some cases it’s indefinite. So that’s the first thing.

35% of the world’s fertilizer is now no longer being shipped. And that too is a vital aspect of our lives that we don’t pay a great deal of attention to. Natural gas fuels over 40% of US power. Higher gas prices lead to immediate utility bill increases for consumers.

So what’s this mean? US manufacturers of fertilizers and chemicals face higher feedstock costs. Eventually we’re going to see the price of food and consumer goods rise dramatically.

And what about monetary policy? Persistent energy driven inflation could prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting any interest rates as they previously planned in 2026.

So when you go to regions of the world, you look at a place like Europe, we went into March 2026 with a very low inventory compared with previous years. Roughly 46 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas or liquefied gas and global gas. So at the end of February, compared to 60 billion cubic meters in 2025, we have 46 billion. So by February 28th there were reports coming in indicating that LNG liquefied natural gas specific storage fell below 30% capacity.

In Asia, the demand rate remains extraordinarily high, particularly in China and India. Each of those countries depends upon 50% of their oil from the Gulf. And even though Iran has said if it’s a Chinese or Indian ship, you get to go through the Gulf, well, if you’re not refining anything, if you’re not extracting anything, if you can’t store anything, what does that say about the global supply outlook?

We expected that there would be in 2026 a projected rise of say 7% in global LNG supplies. The fastest growth since 2019, driven by new projects in the United States, Canada and Qatar. Now that’s gone, that’s out and everyone is feeling the squeeze.

You just go down the list. 100 day buffer. As of 2026, China holds 104 to 115 days of net import cover in its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, targeting the shadow supply. Well, by capturing Maduro and Venezuela and striking Iran, the US has effectively shut down the two primary sources of discounted oil that China used. The result, China is now forced to buy more expensive, transparently traded oil from the global market, rapidly depleting its cheap reserves.

I guess what I’m trying to get across is we are not feeling the profound impact as quickly as the rest of the world, but it’s going to catch up with us. It’s going to catch up with us.

Trump Tries to Calm the Markets

DANIEL DAVIS: And you mentioned a second ago, Doug, that President Trump has got to be keenly, sharply aware of this because that’s something he actually has always paid attention to.