Game Theory #18: Trump World Order w/ Professor Jiang (Transcript)

This seems as though America is preparing for total war.

Polymarket Indicators

Polymarket is a very interesting place to understand how global events will turn out. There are three indicators that, in fact, a war is coming — a ground invasion is coming.

First of all, the peace pizza index is exploding. What does this mean? It means that in the Pentagon, when they’re preparing to launch a ground invasion, they need to work overtime, and so they call for pizza. Pizza deliveries are going up.

Gay bars are empty. When people don’t have much to do, they go on dates.

The last is that people are making large bets that a ground invasion will happen. These are people who have inside information, and so they go on Polymarket and make a bet that this will happen, knowing it will happen. So this guy bet $20,000 that a ground invasion will happen, and if it turns out a ground invasion does happen, he will win over a million dollars.

So these are three very good indicators that a ground invasion has been approved, and it will happen very, very soon.

Trump’s Contradictions and NATO

Donald Trump himself has said many, many things. He said, “You know what? If we leave the Middle East, it’s not a problem. We don’t really care.” And he also says, “Hey, NATO. It’s your responsibility to open the Strait of Hormuz because we told you so and because you need the oil.”

Of course, NATO is angry at Donald Trump because previously, Donald Trump threatened to take over Greenland. So everything Donald Trump is doing — he’s just a moron. He doesn’t plan ahead, because before this war in Iran, where he needs the help of NATO, he was pissing off NATO by trying to take over Greenland. So Donald Trump is all over the place. He’s just a moron. Right?

Applying Game Theory: What If Trump Wants to Lose?

But let’s just assume that the ground invasion goes ahead. What will happen? Well, as I predicted before, if a ground invasion were to go ahead, first of all, America would lose its war because the ground invasion would fail. The Iranians are fully prepared for a ground invasion.

Second of all, if America loses the war, the American empire would die because we’d be forced out of the Middle East. They will lose the petrodollar and the US dollar as a global reserve currency. The third thing is the global economy would collapse.

So, clearly, Donald Trump is the worst president in human history, and he’s a complete buffoon. Right?

But let’s put our thinking caps on. Let’s use game theory and say — but what if for some strange reason Donald Trump wants to lose his war in Iran? What if he wants the American empire to collapse? What if Donald Trump wants to destroy the global economy? Then he’d be a genius. Right?

He’s a moron because he’s going to destroy the American empire. But if he actually wants to destroy the American empire, then the man is the greatest American president ever.

So we’re going to have a fun class today, and we’re going to make the argument that, in fact, Donald Trump is a genius. That, in fact, all this chaos is purposeful. That there’s actually a plan behind all this. That’s the argument I want to make to you today.

The Plan: Shifting Global Dependence to North America

So what is the plan? What is going on here?

The first thing to notice is that the world gets 20% of its oil from the Middle East, primarily going to East Asia. India gets about 6% of its oil from the Middle East. Japan gets 75% of its oil from the Middle East. So East Asia is heavily dependent on Middle East oil. But as you can see, it also goes to Europe as well and then also to the United States.

So the world is dependent on GCC oil. If this war continues, if ground forces are used, then all the oil from the Middle East collapses. JPMorgan has come out and said that by mid-April, the world will run out of oil. So this is a disaster for the world.

But it’s just much more than energy needs. Because Iran is constraining movement in the Strait of Hormuz, we’re seeing seven major shortages. Yes, we know oil and LNG are being stopped. But actually, the problem is much worse because look at phosphate, ammonium, sulfur, urea — this is food production, primarily used for fertilizers.

In other words, if this war persists, not only will countries run out of energy, they’ll also run out of food. Also, look at this — helium and sulfur are used for what? They’re used for semiconductors. The production of semiconductors uses helium and sulfuric acid, which leads to AI.

So in other words, this war in the Middle East is impacting everything in the modern economy. If this war continues, the global economy could collapse.

North America as the New Resource Hub

But we’re making the assumption that Donald Trump is a genius, and this is all part of his big plan. So what is his plan?

We know that there’s a lot of oil in the Middle East. But oil is not as rare as people think it is. There’s also a lot of oil in Canada. Venezuela has the world’s largest oil reserves. Russia also has a lot of oil.

So in other words, if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, if this war in the GCC continues, it doesn’t mean the world no longer has oil. It means the world is now much more dependent on North America and Russia for oil. And so the global economy now shifts over to North America and to Russia.

In other words, the United States starts a stupid war in the GCC in the Middle East. It can’t possibly win, but it still benefits because now the world is much more dependent on North America.

Why is Venezuela important? Because America just took over Venezuela in January. And look — Canada has a lot of oil, and Trump is threatening to take over Canada.

Who Needs the Oil?

So now let’s look at who needs the oil. This map tells you that if you’re in the red, you consume more oil than you export. And who are these countries? Well, they’re Europe, and they are East Asia as well as Australia.

So yes, I understand Donald Trump’s an idiot. Yes, I understand that he’s going to lose his war in the Middle East. Yes, I understand he’s going to destroy the global economy. But for some strange reason, he benefits, and the United States benefits. Because now Europe and China, Japan, Australia — they are much more dependent on North America for resources, for food, for energy.

Food and Nitrogen Dependency

Food. Nitrogen is important for fertilizers. You need nitrogen for fertilizers. And what this map tells you is that if you are in the blue or the light blue, it means you produce more nitrogen than you need to export it. If you are not in the blue, then you’re in trouble.

Basically, this area especially — parts of Europe. So now they need more nitrogen. Before, they were getting a lot of nitrogen and ammonia from the Middle East. And now where are they forced to get the nitrogen? From here and from here.

So again, yes, I know Donald Trump’s losing this war in the Middle East, but in the long term, America stands to benefit.

Water Security and Global Stability

The last thing I want to look at is water. Water is important because water tells us which areas are the most stable. Basically, if you have a lot of water, you are less prone to conflict. But if you don’t have that much water, then you’re prone to conflict.

So if you’re in dark blue, you’re good — nothing to worry about. If you are in the light blue, you are in a lot of trouble.

We look at North America — pretty stable, because lots and lots of fresh water. If you look at Russia — pretty stable, lots and lots of fresh water. But if you’re Africa, you’re in a lot of trouble. If you’re Europe, you’re in a lot of trouble. If you are the Middle East, you’re in a lot of trouble. If you are Southeast Asia, you are in some trouble.

So we already see how this map tells us where, in the future, Russia and the United States — North America — are the most stable parts of the world with the most resources, and therefore, they are the most resilient, the most stable.

The Trump World Order: Game Theory Analysis

Okay? But if you go to Africa, Europe, Middle East, Southeast Asia, these are points of conflict in the world. So we can expect these places to become much more unstable over time. So in other words, all the United States and Russia have to do is maintain stability and then export resources to these places. And guess what?

If they make a lot of money for themselves. Okay? So, again, I understand Donald Trump’s an idiot. I understand this war in the Middle East is stupid. But from a long term game theory perspective, the United States wins from this disaster, from a long term perspective.

Okay? Now you look at this map, you think, well, China is pretty good too. Right? Like, China has a lot of fresh water. The problem with China though is this.

China sits on a lot of fresh water that Southeast Asia and India depends on. Okay? So a lot of water is in the Tibetan Plateau, and it flows downstream into India and Southeast Asia. If there were drought, using game theory, we can suspect that China might want to keep the water for itself. Right?

In which case, Southeast Asia and India would be very angry. Okay? So this is a potential flash point that we have to watch out for. Okay? So it seems like China is stable, but the surrounding areas are not so stable, and so China will be dragged into a conflict.

Oil Reserves and the Energy Equation

Okay? Alright. So let’s summarize what we’ve learned so far. So these are the countries with the most oil reserves. Okay?

Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Canada, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, United States, Russia. Okay. Alright. Now what’s interesting about this is this. This war in the Middle East is going to knock out the oil production of Saudi Arabia, of Iraq, of UAE, of Kuwait, which leaves what?

Which leaves, uh-oh, Venezuela, Canada, and the United States. Okay? North America and Russia. Okay? Now let’s look at who has to buy oil.

Alright? Let’s look at who buys oil. Well, the United States consumes a lot of oil, but again, it has its own supply of oil. China needs to import a lot of its oil needs. Okay?

So China imports about seventy-five percent of its oil needs. India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Japan, South Korea. Okay? Germany. Alright.

So China, India, Japan, South Korea imports a lot of oil. And where does it get its oil from? The Middle East. Right? So if it can’t get its oil from the Middle East, then these four countries, China, India, Japan, and South Korea, will need to get the oil either from United States or Russia.

US Debt and the Treasury Holders

Okay? And why does this matter? Well, let’s look at who owns the most US treasuries. Basically, if you own a lot of US treasuries, it means that you are financing American debt. America right now is thirty-nine trillion dollars in debt. That’s a lot of money, but as long as people continue to buy US debt, as long as people want to buy US treasuries, it’s not a problem. Okay? It’s a Ponzi scheme.

So listen to this. Who are the biggest holders of US debt? Japan, China. Right? Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, India. Okay. So this is all Asia. And we already said that Asia needs a lot of oil from the Middle East. Right?

Now let’s look at others. United Kingdom is second. Okay? The Channel Islands is basically just Europe as well. It’s a mining operation. Okay? Belgium, Luxembourg, France, Canada, France, Ireland, Switzerland. These countries are Europe. And, again, where do we say most oil from the GCC go? It goes to either Asia or Europe.

And now because of the stupid war in the Middle East, Asia and Europe are now forced to buy oil from either Russia or United States. And this is important. Okay? This is important because previously, there’s a fear that these countries would stop buying US treasuries because America is too heavily in debt. The American economy is too much of a Ponzi scheme. So there’s this great fear that Europe and Asia would move away from the US dollar and more towards Swiss francs or gold.

Okay? Now because Europe and Asia need fertilizer. They need energy from the United States of America. The United States no longer has to worry about its debt. Okay?

Alright. The thirty-nine trillion dollar debt, not a problem because the entire world is dependent on North America for our resources. The policy can keep on going. So again, Donald Trump is an idiot, but he’s so stupid, he’s become a genius. Okay?

Putin’s Proof of Concept: The Ukraine War

Alright. Now you’re like, wait, but Donald Trump’s an idiot. Where would he get this idea from? How would he know how to do this? And the answer is because Putin has already proven that this strategy works in Ukraine.

Okay? So let me show you how. Okay. So this is the war in Ukraine. And as you can see, the dark red are areas in which Russia is contesting territory.

The pink are areas in which Russia wants to gain territory. As you can see, Russia still has a long way to go, and we’re already four, five years into this war, which means that this war can go on for another ten, twenty years. It’s a very slow grind, and it’s good for Russia. Yes.

I know that Russia is losing a lot of soldiers, and I know that the Russian economy is suffering, but this long war of attrition is good for Russia. Why? Well, because first of all, what it does is it allows Russia to industrialize its economy. Okay? It allows Russia to center its economy around war production.

Okay? So the red, as you can see, is total industry. Okay? And as you can see, it’s been going up since the war started. Alright?

Overall industry has been going up as well. Unfortunately, industries that are not dominated by the military, that have no war purpose, is actually going down. Okay? So it seems as though the entire Russian economy is being restructured for total war, for a long war, and that is the purpose. That is the goal.

Okay. So, again, the pink are military industries. The blue are civil industries. And as you can see, the pink completely dominate the blue, and the trend is increasing. Meaning, it is possible in four or five years’ time, Russia is primarily a war economy, industrializing to produce war weapons, munitions. Specifically, drones.

Okay? These are drones. Alright. So before, at the beginning of the war, Russia was dependent on Iran for drones. Okay? But then what happened over time is that Russia started to have its own domestic production. Okay? So imports from Iran have stayed constant, and then domestic production has gone way up, which tells us that the Russian economy is industrializing for the production of drones.

And Russia is preparing to fight a long, long war. Now not only can Russia produce its own drones for the war, but it can also export its drones to Iran to fight against the Americans. Okay? And so you’re like, wait a minute here. So Russia is switching its entire economy to war production, which means that Russia will always fight wars.

Is that what Russia’s planning? And the answer is yes. It is. Okay?

The Third Rome Plan: Alexander Dugin’s Vision

And so let me explain why Russia is planning this. This is what I call the Third Rome plan. Okay? And this comes from the 1996 book Foundations of Geopolitics. Okay?

By Aleksandr Dugin, who I think is one of the smartest geopolitical thinkers alive today. Okay? And his argument is this. His argument is this unipolar moment of American dominance, it’s going to fade away because it’s too much focused on secularism, individualism, liberalism, and these ideas break apart community. These ideas are anti human.

So eventually, western society, western civilization will collapse because its values are abhorrent. And when it collapses, this gives opportunity for Moscow to become the Third Rome. Okay? We’ll talk more about this in the future. But what’s brilliant about Dugin is he recognizes that when the world collapses, all Russia has to do is stay stable and resilient.

As long as it stays together, unified, cohesive, it’ll be fine. Okay? Because as this global order collapses, as the global economy collapses, every other society will face internal collapse such as United States. Okay? So he predicts civil war in the United States as left and right go to war against each other.

Okay? He predicts collapse of China. He predicts collapse of the Middle East. He predicts collapse of Europe. Okay?

So all these places are collapsing. Basically, if you are the main pillar of the global economy, you are much more susceptible to collapse than if you are not. Okay? So what Dugin says is this. Okay.

Alright. So the strategy is, first of all, Russia needs to stay coherent. It needs to defend its territory. It needs to unify its people through nationalism, through religion, through faith. And then what Russia needs to do is figure out allies that would support the Russian outlook.

And these allies could include Japan. Okay? Vietnam, India, Iran. Okay? And then by combining their forces, they become a trading block onto themselves.

This is an age of nuclear weapons. You don’t want to go to war against each other, but this is also an age of collapse. So as long as you’re able to stay coherent, as long as you’re able to defend your borders, then you’ll come out ahead. Okay? So that’s the idea of moving towards war because war has a power to unify the imagination and the beliefs of the people in your nation.

Alright? So using war in order to increase the nationalism, the religion of your society, which will allow you to weather the storm better. Okay? So that is the grand vision of Aleksandr Dugin. And in my opinion, he’s absolutely correct.

And Russia is moving towards this by invading Ukraine. Alright? So the Ukraine invasion was not a response to NATO. The Ukraine invasion was to implement this grand vision for the creation of the Third Rome to allow Russia to survive the coming collapse of the global order better than anyone else. Okay?

And so by taking over Ukraine, you now control one third of the world’s carbohydrates and a lot of the world’s energy. Right? Once you control Ukraine and the Black Sea, you are now able to export your energy and your food to Africa, to the Middle East, to Europe, to Asia. Okay? So that’s the grand vision for Russia.

And, again, in my opinion, this makes a lot of sense. The world is collapsing, and so you have to build a fortress. You have to be self sufficient in order to weather the storm.

America’s Response: The Technate

So given this, America is like, well, we can do the same thing. Okay? And so the grand plan for America is something called the Technate. Okay? Sorry. This is something we’ll discuss more later on. Okay?

But first, I want to introduce this idea to you, the Technate. And the Technate is very simple. It’s the idea that, you know what? Yes. The world is going into chaos.

The world is collapsing. But North America is self sufficient. Right? So these past few months, Donald Trump has been picking a fight with Denmark over Greenland. Right?

He’s been threatening Canada. He’s been threatening Mexico. He’s been threatening Colombia. He’s been going after Venezuela. He’s been threatening Cuba.

He’s been threatening Honduras, Nicaragua. Why is he doing this? Because they’re all part of the grand vision for Greater North America. Okay. What Peter Zeihan calls Greater North America.

The Technate. Alright? And this is a response to Moscow’s Third Rome. If Moscow is going to build this grand alliance in order to weather a storm, then America has no choice but to also build this grand alliance as well in order to protect itself in this coming storm. Alright?

So what Donald Trump has recognized is that Putin is right. The world is collapsing. There’s nothing we can do to save the world. So let’s just accelerate it in a way that allows America to benefit from this collapse. Okay?

So by collapsing the GCC, by collapsing the Middle East, you make Asia and Europe now dependent on North American energy and fertilizer exports. And this allows you the resources, the motivation to create the Technate. Okay? This self sufficient economy. Okay?

Does it make sense? Alright. Okay. Alright.

The New World Order: A Summary

So let us summarize. Okay? So in September 11, 1991, George H. W. Bush, he responds to the fall of the Berlin Wall, the collapse of Soviet Union by coining a new phrase called the New World Order. And there are three major pillars to the idea of the New World Order. Okay?

The first idea is that America will become the financial capital of the world. America will offshore resources and manufacturing to other places, and then America will focus primarily on finance, making Wall Street the center of the world. Okay? The other idea is the idea of secular multiculturalism. So the world is divided, but what can unite everyone is the love of money, the love of consumerism.

So if we just focus on making money and buying things, then the world will be forever at peace. Okay? And so we have to let go of borders. We have to let go of community. We have to let go of identity and focus more on consumerism.

Okay? And the last idea is global domination, where in order for global trade to happen, America will provide security for all. No one has to fight anymore because America will guarantee global peace. If anyone rises to challenge this order, Pax Americana, then America will go destroy it. Okay?

The Trump World Order: A Response to the New World Order

PROFESSOR JIANG: So these are the three main pillars of the new world order as announced by George H.W. Bush on September 11, 1991. Okay?

Trump world order is a response to this new world order. Basically, what Trump is saying, and what he’s been saying for a long time is, why should America pay for the defense of other nations? Why should America have to be the consumer of last resort for everyone? Why are Americans paying for everything so that Europeans can have their welfare and their pension? Everyone’s taking advantage of America and is destroying America. So let us change the new world order to the Trump world order. Okay?

And how do you do that? Well, you move America from a focus on finance to a focus on resources and manufacturing. Okay? Basically, you believe the world is going to permanent war, and so you provide the resources and the manufacturing in order to facilitate this world war. Meanwhile, America has become a fortress of America. It can hide behind its fortress, and it’s protected by two oceans. Right? Okay?

So this makes sense. Multiculturalism doesn’t work. It leads to stupidity such as DEI, world politics, transgenderism. It’s all retarded. Let’s focus on what makes us proud to be Americans, which is Christian nationalism. Okay? Our love of the white race, our nation, and God. So no more of this multiculturalism. No more immigration. No more open borders. No more democratic party. Let’s just focus on being Christian nationalists. Love the United States. Love of Christianity. Love of the white race.

And the last idea is, why should America pay to protect the world? Screw Pax Americana. Let’s just do MAGA. Okay? What is MAGA? MAGA is national rejuvenation. Let’s make America great again by rebuilding America’s manufacturing industry, by exploiting the infinite resources that God has given America in order to make sure every American has a decent life. Okay?

Alright. So, again, I understand Trump is an idiot. Trump has launched America into this stupid war in the Middle East. Trump has pissed off NATO. Trump has pissed off all of America’s allies. So he’s a retard. But if the goal was to destroy the American empire, destroy the global economy, and rebuild America for the benefit of Americans, then Trump is a genius. And he may go down in history as America’s greatest president. Okay?

Q&A Session

AUDIENCE QUESTION: So my first question is, you mentioned that Donald Trump or Putin, they think that the world, like, the whole system will collapse inevitably. But how, why? Like, if this Ukraine war doesn’t happen, or if this Iran war won’t happen, how will the world economy collapse?

PROFESSOR JIANG: Okay. That’s a really good question. Okay? So both Putin and Trump know that the world will collapse. And the question is, how do they know this? And the answer is because it’s so obvious. Okay?

So, for the longest time, what America did was it basically, after World War Two, it lent money to Europe and Japan so that Europe and Japan can buy manufactured goods from America. Okay? And this is good for America, because it created a lot of jobs, and Americans were productive. But then over time, Americans became very lazy, and so they made the Europeans and the Japanese do the work, especially Germany. And then America started to be the consumer. Okay? So then America started to spend more money than it made. Before, it made more money than it spent and lent this money to Europe and Japan. But then over time, this reversed itself. Okay?

And then what happened was that America started to shift its manufacturing to China. And so China is like, let me do all the work for you, America, and I’ll do it really cheaply, and I’ll lend you the money to do it. Okay? So what’s happening is that America is becoming lazy, in debt, and corrupt. Okay? Because the entire world was basically working for America for very little money. And this led to massive inequality in America, which led to political corruption, which led to an oligarchy. Okay?

So don’t think of America as a democracy. Think of it as an oligarchy. And so when that happens, when only a few people benefit from the system, then the American people get really pissed, and so they elected Donald Trump. Okay? And why did Donald Trump get elected? Because he understood intuitively this system does not work. It cannot hold. It cannot be stable for too long. It’s going to collapse eventually. Okay?

The question then is, when will it collapse and who will benefit from the collapse? And Donald Trump’s like, okay, then let’s control the collapse so that my friends and I can benefit the most from this collapse. Okay?

And Donald Trump has two sets of friends. The first are the Christians. Okay? Christian evangelicals, basically the fanatics who support Israel, as well as the AI, Silicon Valley. Alright?

So we learned about the idea of elite reduction. The idea is that as a society collapses and declines, the elite start to compete against themselves for resources. And so right now, the elite are the finance people, and the new elite, the counter elites, are the AI people. Okay? Artificial intelligence. And something we’ll discuss later on. But basically, the idea is that America is a house of cards. It’s a Ponzi scheme. It’s corrupt. It’s unequal. It’s lazy. It’s in decline. So it’s going to fall apart sooner or later. Okay?

But the question then is, how do you manage this decline? How do you control this decline in a way that allows you and your friends to benefit the most? Okay? And that’s why Donald Trump started this war in the Middle East. Because by starting this war in the Middle East, you’re extending the process of decline in America, and therefore, you’re able to help transform America from an economy that’s based on finance to one that’s based on resource exploitation and then manufacturing. Okay. Does that make sense?

Connecting the Religious and Geopolitical Explanations

AUDIENCE QUESTION: So I have one last question about the explanations of this war. Like before, we explained it in a religious perspective. And how does this explanation connect to the explanation today?

PROFESSOR JIANG: Okay. Alright. Yeah. That’s a really good question. Okay? So the thing I just want to say about war is that there are different factors at play. Okay? So before, we went into the eschatological factor. Alright? Now I explained to you the geopolitical or the economic. But there’s also the historical or hubris. Right?

And what you need to recognize about history is that often, all three things converge together. Okay? Because what is religion? Religion is a memory, or long lost memory, of our ancient past told through myths and stories. So there’s truth to religion because it’s basing a lot of its ideas through personal experience, through history. Okay? From thousands of years ago. Right? And geopolitics, economics drives historical forces.

So another way of understanding this is that often, all these different factors are aligned together. This is something we’ll discuss more later on. Okay? Alright?

And so why do I look at different factors, different vectors? And the answer is because I make predictions. And if I’m able to analyze an event using eschatology, geopolitics, and history, and they are aligned together, then I can make a pretty accurate prediction that this will happen. I don’t know when it will happen. I mean, I know who the players are, but I’m pretty sure this event will happen. Does that make sense? Okay. Great.

Alright. So we’ll continue this next week. Okay?

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