Editor’s Notes: In this episode of Judging Freedom, Judge Andrew Napolitano and geopolitical analyst Pepe Escobar discuss the strategic fracturing of the Gulf Cooperation Council and the rise of new regional coalitions amidst escalating tensions with Iran. The conversation delves into the potential for a U.S. ground invasion, analyzing Iran’s military resilience and the broader shift toward a multipolar world order. Escobar also explores the diplomatic maneuvers of global powers like Russia and China and the unintended consequences of current American foreign policy on the international stage. (April 1, 2026)
TRANSCRIPT:
“Undeclared wars are commonplace. Tragically, our government engages in preemptive war, otherwise known as aggression, with no complaints from the American people. Sadly, we have become accustomed to living with the illegitimate use of force by government. To develop a truly free society, the issue of initiating force must be understood and rejected.”
JUDGE ANDREW NAPOLITANO: What if sometimes to love your country, you had to alter or abolish the government? What if Jefferson was right? What if that government is best which governs least? What if it is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong? What if it is better to perish fighting for freedom than to live as a slave? What if freedom’s greatest hour of danger is now?
Hi, everyone. Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom. Today is Wednesday, April 1, 2026. The Great Pepe Escobar joins us now. Pepe, thank you very much.
PEPE ESCOBAR: Thank you, Judge.
JUDGE ANDREW NAPOLITANO: Pleasure. Are the Americans and the Iranians negotiating directly or indirectly?
Direct or Indirect Negotiations with Iran?
PEPE ESCOBAR: No. No. And we know that from Galiba himself. We know that from Al Raqi, we know from top political leaders in the Iranian Parliament. Once again, messages. And of course, what happened in the beginning of this week, which was quite something — the Quad meeting in Islamabad with the foreign ministers of Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia indirectly.
JUDGE ANDREW NAPOLITANO: I want to ask you in some detail about the Quad, about who controls the Quad. But before we get there, the President is peddling this nonsense. This morning he said that President Possesskin called him up and said, “We want a ceasefire.” I mean, that is just really — why would Iran want a ceasefire before any of its demands have been met?
PEPE ESCOBAR: Absolutely. So it’s the new narrative. We should always remember, this is the empire of creating, twisting and discarding narratives. So the latest narrative is the Iranians are desperate for a ceasefire, and this might open the path for Trump to pull off a “mission accomplished” and say, “Okay, I’m leaving.” Which is quite possible. It’s one of the things I might say tonight. Or the other one would be, “Okay, we are launching a ground invasion.” And then, wow, wow.
JUDGE ANDREW NAPOLITANO: I don’t know where he’s going to go tonight. None of us knows.
PEPE ESCOBAR: What is our gut feeling? Judge, if you allow me, what is your gut feeling?
Trump’s Options: Off Ramp or Escalation?
JUDGE ANDREW NAPOLITANO: My gut feeling is that he’s going to bring the troops home because he’s suffering so exquisitely in the polls. His disapproval rating is north of 60. His approval rating is south of 26. That is radical. Whether his party controls the Congress or not, when he makes these statements, it is just de rigueur that people laugh and say, “Well, it’s only the President who believes him.” So what is your gut feeling?
PEPE ESCOBAR: He’s desperately trying to find an off ramp, and all the signs — everything about him is contradictory, volatile, incandescent, we all know that. But he’s trying to find an off ramp because he’s looking at the oil market, he’s looking at the bond market, he’s looking at his numbers as you just mentioned correctly, and he’s looking at the political disaster approaching in the midterms.
JUDGE ANDREW NAPOLITANO: Let me make another suggestion. This is a three-day weekend coming up because of Good Friday — the markets are closed. He may be making a statement tonight: “Oh, we’re leaving. So don’t worry about it.” And then plan a massive invasion on Friday morning.
PEPE ESCOBAR: Massive invasion. Where, Judge? That’s about where. In Kish Island — he can’t. In Kard — he can’t. In Baluchistan — he can’t. All of these possible landing sites have been gamed to death and all of them are suicidal. There’s no possibility whatsoever.
And the Iranians, on top of it, they are ready. From the northwest of the Strait of Hormuz in Kharg, all the way to the Iran-Pakistani border, including both Balochistans — the Pakistani Balochistan, which is just desert, and Sistan-Baluchistan, which is used by the Balochistan Liberation Movement, which could be instrumentalized by the CIA and MI6 to help the Americans in case of a land invasion. But all of that has been gamed to death.
What Has the War Actually Achieved?
JUDGE ANDREW NAPOLITANO: What has he gained? The same government is intact, ballistic missiles are in use, he doesn’t have the nuclear material — it’s in storage. And the Strait of Hormuz, which was open before the war, is now closed. What has he gained?
PEPE ESCOBAR: Well, he gave to the whole Global South, on a silver platter, the actual beginning of multipolarity — with Iran emerging as a huge regional power and one of the world’s most important powers, not only regional but all across Asia, capable of influencing the global economy.
Plus the petro-yuan in effect at the Strait of Hormuz, which the Iranian parliament, the Majlis, has already approved the legislation organizing — okay, let’s put it mildly — some sort of nationalization of the Strait of Hormuz. Just like 1956 in Suez, what Egypt did starting 1957. They started their toll booth. There was a lot of scandal for a few months and now it’s absolutely normal.
This is exactly what’s going to happen to the Strait of Hormuz. So Trump gave that to the yuan and to Eurasian integration.
JUDGE ANDREW NAPOLITANO: So he also gave the Iranians a lot of income on the sale of oil, and he gave the Russians a lot of income on the sale of oil.
PEPE ESCOBAR: Lots of prizes for the — it’s a lottery for the Global South, Judge. In the end, talk about unintended consequences. This is what happens when you launch a war with less than zero planning.
Lavrov on the New World Order
JUDGE ANDREW NAPOLITANO: I want you to listen to our friend Foreign Minister Lavrov, whose views are very similar to yours, Pepe. Here he is yesterday, March 31st.
VIDEO CLIP BEGINS:
SERGEY LAVROV: We can say that we are in the middle of reshaping of the new world order, that will hopefully lead to the formation of a stable and fair multipolar world. But right now this restructuring looks more like disruption in all spheres. And the fight for power across the world is fierce. And political scientists in Russia and in the world point at a whole number of manifestations that indicate a very challenging history of today’s situation.
VIDEO CLIP ENDS:
JUDGE ANDREW NAPOLITANO: I don’t think Trump and Hegseth and Rubio and General Caine had any idea of the changes that they would be bringing about. How do you read Sergey Lavrov right there?
PEPE ESCOBAR: The grand master speaks, Judge, in a little over a minute. That’s exactly what’s happening. Okay, quoting that woman again, but okay — “the birth pangs of the multipolar world.” This is what we’re actually living now.
That’s why I made a bold claim in one of my articles these past few weeks: this is the war that is defining the 21st century geopolitically. We never expected a month ago that, of course, it would have to be a war. Multipolarity would never be born in a BRICS room with people in suits deliberating. No, it would have to be born in the battlefield, under fire, against all odds. And that’s exactly what’s happening now.
The Fracturing of the Gulf Cooperation Council
JUDGE ANDREW NAPOLITANO: Wow. What is happening to the GCC — the Gulf Cooperation Council — which was probably instigated by the war?
PEPE ESCOBAR: Yes, it’s already fractured, Judge. Very, very important. Two of them — two important members, because one of them is traditionally neutral and the other one is a gas monarchy and an economic powerhouse — Qatar and Oman now own the record. They say, “No, we need a diplomatic solution.” And they are not antagonizing Iran by any stretch of the imagination. Not anymore.
Qatar in the beginning was, and now we have the warmongers — the UAE, Saudi Arabia, still Bahrain and Kuwait — who had been instigating Trump, until literally yesterday, to go all the way to smash Iran. Saudi Arabia now is a completely different story after the “kiss my ass” gambit, because MBS was publicly humiliated by the President.
JUDGE ANDREW NAPOLITANO: Did the President of the United States say that to and about Mohammed bin Salman? And if he did, how egregious an insult is that in the Arab world? I mean, in America, you say that all the time in locker rooms and particularly in athletic contests. But what does that mean in the Arab world?
PEPE ESCOBAR: It’s the ultimate insult. And don’t forget, these are very conservative, tribal, hierarchical societies. And when the leader is disrespected in front of public opinion like that, there’s going to be blowback. Blowback already started, in fact, little by little.
Don’t forget that MBS’s ego is as huge as the baboon of barbarians — so that’s a very strong competition. He already said that we are not buying American weapons anymore. Okay. Is he going to buy them from Russia? From Europe? Europe doesn’t have practically anything to sell, so it would have to be from Russia. And we should not forget that MBS and Putin have very good relations, and Putin respects MBS.
Trump’s “Barnyard Statement” and Its Consequences
JUDGE ANDREW NAPOLITANO: Do we know what prompted President Trump to issue that barnyard statement about Mohammed bin Salman?
PEPE ESCOBAR: Psychological imbalance. There’s no rational explanation, Judge. It’s impossible. He’s alienating one of America’s historical allies in the Persian Gulf with three words. It’s completely — wow. He obviously doesn’t think about the consequences of his words. And because he is a talking machine, non-stop, and obviously considering the mediocrity of the people around him — the psycho fans, vassals, etc. — there’s nobody there to say, “Mr. President, please restrain yourself.” No, they are terrified of him.
Professor Mearsheimer: Nuremberg Standards
JUDGE ANDREW NAPOLITANO: I want you to take a listen to Professor Mearsheimer.
PEPE ESCOBAR: Yes.
JUDGE ANDREW NAPOLITANO: Serious, serious academic. Never heard a four-letter word out of his mouth. Using some very, very strong language yesterday, particularly at the very end of this minute-and-a-half clip.
VIDEO CLIP BEGINS:
JOHN MEARSHEIMER: We didn’t even make any attempt to argue that the Iranians had done something militarily to precipitate our attack on Iran. There’s no provocation here. We just decided we were going to go out and we were going to whack the Iranians, both last June and again this time.
Furthermore, both the Israelis and the Americans are running around the world assassinating leaders. This was not something that the United States engaged in, in large part, or certainly in an overt way, in the past. And here we are.
And furthermore, there’s the Gaza genocide. The Israelis — here’s an apartheid state executing a genocide in Gaza, and we’re complicit in that genocide. If there were Nuremberg trials where the Israelis and the Americans were brought before the court, President Trump along with President Netanyahu and many of their advisors would be hanged.
This is a genocide, is it not? It is a genocide. What did we do in 1945 with those Germans who executed a genocide in Europe, and who were not only accused of executing a genocide, but those German leaders were accused of launching a war of aggression?
VIDEO CLIP ENDS:
JUDGE ANDREW NAPOLITANO: — bears remarkable resemblance to what we and the Israelis have now twice done against Iran. He is the first national figure to say that if there were a Nuremberg-like tribunal, Netanyahu, Trump, Hegseth and the others would be hanged. Hanged.
PEPE ESCOBAR: Absolutely. Absolutely. Of course, if the same standards of Nuremberg — there’s no question about that.
JUDGE ANDREW NAPOLITANO: Right, right.
The GCC Under the Thumb of the US?
JUDGE ANDREW NAPOLITANO: Who — aren’t the GCC, the Gulf Cooperation Council — aren’t they all ultimately under the thumb of the US? I mean, take a look at Egypt. Where would Egypt even have a government if we didn’t give them $4 billion in cash every year?
The Muslim Quad and China’s Role
PEPE ESCOBAR: That’s why the squad, Judge, was particularly intriguing because, in a sense, it was already a post-GCC in some aspects. Maybe it was a trial balloon for a post-American West Asia. It was a sort of a budging Muslim coalition. There was a lot of spin that this was a Sunni axis. These are four Muslim countries with extremely diverse interests.
But in this case, Pakistan sees the opportunity, and Pakistan now, as we all know, they have a horrible military junta for all practical purposes. The leader, by the way, Field Marshal Munir, he has Trump on a speed dial. But we can also say that el-Sisi in Egypt and this military junta in Islamabad are essentially Zionist-aligned administrations, governments, whatever you want to call them. Turkey is always hedging, and Saudi Arabia now could be a loose cannon after the “kiss my ass” gambit. We are sure that MBS will exert his revenge, but how?
What they discussed in Islamabad was not good enough. And that’s why the next day, the Foreign Minister of Pakistan had to rush to Beijing to talk to Wang Yi, the Chinese Foreign Minister, to explain what they discussed in Islamabad. Because the idea, the Pakistani idea originally, was: okay, we have this Muslim quad, we come up with some sort of plan, then we present it to the Chinese and we bring the Chinese in as guarantors of our plan.
The Chinese from the beginning saw that there was no plan to start with, and they will never risk being a guarantor of a non-plan. Consider that on the other side, they have a president who changes his mind every 10 seconds.
So this was the conversation yesterday in Beijing between the Foreign Minister of Pakistan and Wang Yi. In the end, this was fascinating. They have a joint statement, a five-point plan, which would be, let’s say, the beginning of a peace plan for the war and the beginning of an entente between the US and Iran. But when you read it, it’s a collection of clichés. But that’s Chinese diplomacy. They release this collection of clichés that more or less appeases everybody.
But certainly, they are now in the background working out with Iran and with Russia: can we come up with something really solid without trusting the Trump administration? Then we can have the whole of West Asia and the whole of the Global South behind us, and then it’s going to be practically the whole world against the Trump administration, trying to force some sort of understanding and the end of aggression against Iran over and over again.
So that’s why this process initiated in Islamabad is extremely interesting. It can go to places where we don’t even suspect. But the key is not Pakistan and this quad of four. The key is what China is going to do.
Iran’s Resilience and Trump’s Deadline
JUDGE ANDREW NAPOLITANO: What will Russia and China do if things start to go south in the Iran war? Right now it’s advantage Iran by every measurement, except what the Pentagon is willing to admit. But suppose the tide turns. What will or can Russia and China do?
PEPE ESCOBAR: The tide won’t turn, Judge, because they still have unlimited retaliation and dissuasive capacities. The latest generation missiles, their newest drones, the invisible cities — most of them the Americans don’t even know where they are. They are bombing Isfahan this past two or three days nonstop with bunker busters, because they’re bombing the entrances to two underground missile cities that they identified. But this is only the entrances. And then the Iranians go there and they start all over again and they clear the entrances. The other ones, they don’t even know where they are.
So Iran is ready for a long war lasting months, which is exactly what Trump does not have. He cannot allow himself even to go over his self-imposed deadline of two to four weeks. And in May, very importantly, there’s the trip to Xi. He cannot go to China in the middle of a war. He needs to go to China with some sort of leverage.
JUDGE ANDREW NAPOLITANO: Well, he’s already delayed that trip by a month. The stated reason was the war. I happen to think that Xi didn’t want to be seen shaking hands with Trump during the war.
PEPE ESCOBAR: Exactly. So now it’s postponed to May 14–16. As it stands, it can be postponed again, of course. But this self-imposed deadline takes into consideration the preparation for Trump’s trip to China. He needs to arrive there with some cards in his hand, and at the moment he has literally none.
Putin, Russian Public Opinion, and the Ukraine Parallel
JUDGE ANDREW NAPOLITANO: What about Moscow? We heard from the smartest diplomat in the world on geopolitics, who believes that this is going to produce a grand reset. But what is President Putin thinking?
PEPE ESCOBAR: We don’t know, Judge, we don’t know. And the rumor mill in Moscow these past few days is something. Wow, you hear everything. There are a lot of well-informed and well-connected people. They are looking at the war in Iran and they are saying: why can’t we do the same thing in Ukraine? So these questions are being asked publicly already.
Of course, this is not the way Putin operates. Putin is cool, calm, calculating, thinks long term, legalistic. He thinks about all legal aspects. He doesn’t want to lose support across the Global South if he does something rash. But Russian public opinion may be little by little turning, because the sacrifices of the war are terrible.
And these latest drone attacks against ports in the Baltic — they are serious. The oil refining capacity of Russia may have been hit 3%, 4%, 5%, but still they are very, very serious, and they will continue. They come from the Baltics, and there’s nothing Russia is doing to prevent it. It would have to be a direct attack on the Baltic Chihuahuas, which Putin has refused so far.
So the interconnection — of course we all know these wars are interconnected — but what Russian public opinion is understanding from what Iran is doing in their own war, their conclusion is: wow, Russia should apply the same methodology. So something is going to change in the next few weeks and months. There’s no question.
A Satirical AI Vision of America in 2029
JUDGE ANDREW NAPOLITANO: Wow. Chris came across a rather hilarious clip. It’s done by AI, but it’s side-splitting — about America on January 21, 2029. As soon as I saw it and we were laughing like hell, I said we’ve got to run this for Pepe. It’s about a minute and a half long, but it’s worth watching.
PEPE ESCOBAR: Is this one of the LEGO ones?
VIDEO CLIP BEGINS:
UNIDENTIFIED SPEAKER: Today, January 21, 2029, America takes out the trash. We restore the names of the Americans who actually earned them, and we tear down the propaganda of a man who mistook power for greatness. We erase the vanity projects, melt down the monuments to his ego, and give back what always belonged to the American people. Welcome back.
We reclaim our institutions, restore the dignity of the offices he disgraced, and scrub his name from every wall, every hall, every stone he defaced.
America was never his. It was never for sale. It was never a brand. It is a republic. And today, we take it back. The restoration of the rule of law begins in 3, 2, 1.
VIDEO CLIP ENDS:
JUDGE ANDREW NAPOLITANO: Not that far-fetched, Pepe.
PEPE ESCOBAR: Wow. If he watches this, Judge, he’ll never be able to sleep again. And the worst part is that he brought it on himself.
Iran’s National Resolve and the Lessons of History
JUDGE ANDREW NAPOLITANO: Yes, none of this was necessary. So I don’t know where this ends or how it goes. We’ll all be watching what he says tonight, but most people won’t believe what he says. If he says the troops are coming home, do you think the Iranians are going to stand down? Of course not.
PEPE ESCOBAR: No. They’re ready for war. Exactly. Whatever he says, they are ready for war. They’re ready for a land invasion, whatever that is. And the national consensus — which is something that our friend Professor Marandi explained to you brilliantly — that’s the national feeling. Everybody feels it in Iran. And now they have this sense that they are in the middle of a historic mission, like the old glory days of the Persian Empire. “We are resurrecting. We are a big global power again.” With their suffering, paying a horrendous price, but that’s it. History rewards the bold, always.
JUDGE ANDREW NAPOLITANO: Yes, it does, Pepe. Thank you. You are the bold — you are the boldest. Although John Mearsheimer is a close second to you. Thank you, Pepe. Happy Easter to you, and we’ll see you next week.
PEPE ESCOBAR: Buddhist greetings from Southeast Asia. Cheers.
JUDGE ANDREW NAPOLITANO: Thank you. All the best, my dear friend. If you’re watching us live, in 15 minutes, Colonel Karen Kwiatkowski at 1:45, and at 3:00 o’clock, the great Phil Giraldi. They judge Napolitano for Judging Freedom.
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