Here is the full transcript of a conversation between Prof. Glenn Diesen and Henry Tillman, the CEO of Aiyana Advisory and Research, on “China’s Thorium Revolution – 60.000 Years of Cheap Energy”, April 23, 2025.
Introduction
GLENN DIESEN: Hi everyone and welcome. I am joined today by Henry Tillman, the CEO of Aiyana Global Advisory and Research, who is deeply engaged in energy and infrastructure projects. So welcome to the program.
HENRY TILLMAN: Thanks, Glenn. It’s always an honor to be with you.
GLENN DIESEN: Access to energy has always been a foundational pillar of civilization, be it from human energy, coal and steel, oil, electricity, nuclear power. But we seem to be close to a major revolution of energy that could transform human civilization. I’m not sure if that’s an exaggeration, but it’s now said that China could have cheap energy for the next 60,000 years fueled by thorium.
So this is considered often to be this holy grail of nuclear power. And indeed we now have news reports of the first working thorium reactor in the Gobi Desert of China. Can you explain what this is and why it’s so significant?
The History of Thorium Energy
HENRY TILLMAN: Sure. First of all, the words you chose are the words I chose to present in October 23rd at the Arctic Circle Forum, Thorium Revolution in front of 25 countries. So I did agree with this a couple of years ago.
But the story is thorium goes back to the 1830s in Norway as a rare earth, basically. And it was by 1941 in the US at Berkeley, where I went to school later on, of course, both plutonium and thorium were in the mix for the Manhattan Project. But thorium is not explosive on its own. So the choice was made for plutonium.
By 1959, Edmund Teller, as part of the Eisenhower for Safe Nuclear, had developed thorium as a nuclear reactor and presented it to the first US oil company in 1959, saying we have a problem with CO2 and here’s the solution for it because it’s clean burn and it’s non-explosive.
From 1962 to 1972 the US ran the first cargo ship on thorium for 10 straight years, no incidents. And then it also was run at Oak Ridge onshore from 1965 to 1969 for about 13,000 hours. It was sporadic, but in 1972 led by US Admiral Rickover, who was quite a character with Nixon, the ultimate plan was not to use thorium going forward, but they’d use plutonium in the nuclear program.
So from 1972 to 2011, the US backed by the UK had locked down the formula for the use of thorium. Then Fukushima happened. By the time Fukushima happened, the US had decided, we have to go back in time. At some point around 2011, the US opened up that technology to many universities and many governments. It was also led by the research I’ve done by two US senators, one from Utah and one from Nevada, Harry Reid, to say, let’s open this up. If you use this, you have to give the IP back. So they gave this to Jiang Jimen’s son, literally from China in 2011, but it also went to Russia and a number of other countries.
China’s Thorium Development
What I find interesting about this is because in the 1950s, thorium was also used a little bit in a project called Candu in Canada, and it was also used in France. So there was some knowledge of this. And of course China had some knowledge of what was happening in Canada back in the 50s and 60s. So China had knowledge of this back in the 50s, 60s and 70s.
So when it came to the point where it became open to use, China jumped all over it, and so have other countries. But China has been the lead behind this and made a strategic decision as a country to get behind this. So they’ve accelerated the use of technology in nuclear, first of which was non-thorium, in Gen 3 nuclear and then into thorium, which you’re talking about here.
And you’re right that it started in 2011. They started putting money into it by 2011. It became functional in this last year. And then of course, the big highlight, the reason we’re asking the question now is in the last few days they topped up the reactor. Yes, so it’s a functional reactor and they’re on course by building a major onshore reactor and functional by 2029/2030.
But even closer to that, China is also using LingLong1, which will be functional next year. So from an SMR perspective, they’re probably at least five years or maybe 10 years ahead of the rest of the world in this, and they’re certainly 10 years ahead of using thorium for the rest of the world in a larger reactor.
Global Distribution and Potential
Now, thorium itself, back to your question, is spread throughout the world, nobody controls this. India has the largest component of it. Turkey has the largest component of it. China has a piece. Norway, your country, has a piece. I’ve talked to your former energy minister and Norway considered using thorium back in 2008-09 but couldn’t figure out how to make it work.
So it’s broadly around the rest of the world, it’s a lot cheaper, it’s a lot more powerful and safe. The SMR that’s coming out is a Gen 3 SMR and thorium is Gen 4 SMR and the older stuff is Gen 2. So the later the generation, the more safe they are and the more powerful they are.
It can be used around the world, but it takes a lot of time to build it, a huge amount of focus on building it and a huge amount of government backing to build it. So China has gone from 400 million to probably 6 billion into it. They’ve gone from a few employees to over 400 employees into it.
But the power of this, as you rightfully point out, will be huge into the Belt and Road countries.
First of the smaller SMRs and of course for the larger pieces, as the onshore thorium reactor comes on board.
Why Isn’t Everyone Racing Toward Thorium?
GLENN DIESEN: Yeah, very much so. But if this is 200 times more efficient or gives 200 times more energy than traditional nuclear energy and it’s cleaner, safer, how come the whole world isn’t in a huge race rushing towards developing this?
HENRY TILLMAN: Well, actually they are. That’s a good question. I first started studying this in 2018, I was first published on it in 2023. If you look at the share prices, the US commodities, US nuclear companies have all shot through the roof, even though they won’t have revenues before 2030, 2031.
And of course the big spend up front on thorium, it’s a 4 billion ticket. I think Indonesia is a 4 billion number because Indonesia is trying to build a thorium plant with technology from Denmark and technology from the USA. That’s a 4 billion spend, number one. And number two, even if you build it, there’s a period of time before it starts making money by this commercial angle of this thing.
Much like China did with solar and wind to back it for 25 years, then the prices have come down, become functional. It’ll be years before this stuff becomes functional, whether it’s at the SMR level or whether it’s on the ground level with thorium. So it’s cheaper to get. There’s more of it to get.
I work as an advisor to many countries and many countries can’t seem to process the fact this is moving so quickly. Their supply of uranium now might be worth a lot of money for five or 10 years. Now they’re moving from uranium to thorium and there’s so much more thorium and they can’t seem to process how fast this is all moving even at government levels. It’s quite extraordinary actually.
China’s Lead and Economic Impact
GLENN DIESEN: But how can we explain that China has such a huge lead on this and what will it mean I guess for the Chinese economy moving forward?
HENRY TILLMAN: First of all, it’s a powerful energy source. So it burns 98% clean. There’s very little waste about post usage. It’s much cheaper. You power the country on this.
If I take it one step further, probably 15 years from now, I could see that you’ll need this to power AI. So what’s happening in the US right now, you have a number of major companies trying to power their AI or data centers and that means you need nuclear power. This is the best formula and most effective form of nuclear power over a period of time.
So near term they’re going to have to look at other options. But by a few years from now, in the 2030 to 2035 period of time, thorium will be used in many other countries. I’ve seen estimates of between 30 and 41 countries along the Belt and Road that are interested in looking at thorium reactors to power their countries.
GLENN DIESEN: But do they have their own technology or will they rely on China to help them build this?
HENRY TILLMAN: It’ll be Chinese technology. Many of these are actually modular. The SMRs are modular. So you piece by piece. But yes, they rely on Chinese technology. So this is a massive game changer.
Global Impact on Energy and Transportation
GLENN DIESEN: But if again most or a lot of the global competition and conflicts are over energy resources, will this displace other forms of energy? How do you project that this will shape the international system?
HENRY TILLMAN: This is a very good question because there are lots of people who say thorium until this happened – thorium became active in the last few days – there were still a lot of naysayers. If I go back a few years, I started researching this in 2018. People were saying this didn’t work and this didn’t work. And yes it worked in 1965 to 1969 but not really, only part of the time. There were lots of naysayers that said it just didn’t work. Now it’s working.
I personally believe, and this is not a government statement, it’s my statement as a researcher that by the mid-40s, you can go from Korea to Germany, across Eurasia with AI, whether it’s driverless cars, rail or lorries powered by this form of nuclear energy, all driverless. That’s completely Star Wars stuff. But I mean, that’s what I really think is going to happen over a period of time, quickly, by 2045. So all those countries will be able to power this, to use this Chinese technology. It’s Chinese technology, but thorium is elsewhere.
GLENN DIESEN: In the world and this is adapted to shipping and all other forms of transportation.
HENRY TILLMAN: That’s a very good question. Both, actually. China is building the world’s largest cargo vessel to be powered by thorium that was launched in 2023. And they’re also looking at offshore nuclear, which currently is being led by Russia. Russia has been leading this. The first offshore nuclear has been 2020 by Russia, but that’s not thorium, that’s uranium lead, but it is offshore.
And then I think from my perspective, you have many countries in the West looking how to do this in the marine area. And that’s being led by full marks to a man named Mikhail Bo, who runs Core Power UK, who is someone who’s leading the Western charge of doing this for gathering steam around the world, supported by both equity capital from other sources and also governments to back this plan.
And now Core Power is funded mostly by Japanese partners, but there are a number of Western partners, either Scandinavian or North Asian, led by the UK through Core Power and also by the USA, as ultimately the USA would like to use this type of energy to power ships along the rivers.
So yes, this will be both onshore, offshore, it’s both thorium and uranium. This is all developing very, very quickly, but it can’t get much press for whatever reason, or the press that comes out is not really describing this in detail.
China’s Competitive Edge
GLENN DIESEN: What explains the Chinese competitiveness? Is it just a technological advancement in China or is it their ability to scale in terms of implementing this? Because as you mentioned, the United States and others are working on this, but they’re still at the scientific or experimental phase while the Chinese are actually implementing it and having the first reactor running now. So how can you explain this? Is it the scaling? Because usually with other technologies, you see, this is a key advantage.
The Thorium Advantage and China’s Commitment
HENRY TILLMAN: I can answer that using a recent quote by a person running the project for the Chinese government which basically says sometimes rabbits get tired and fat and sometimes turtles can catch them. So I’m paraphrasing those words, but fundamentally, the U.S. has had this technology since 1959. Since 1959. And they stopped it in 1972.
I think if you look at it—I don’t know this, I’m not involved in these discussions—I think you’ll see the US current focus in the next few years is selling LNG to Europe with an LNG play to Europe over Trump too, forcing Russia to go elsewhere with its LNG. So the focus is really a near-term play versus a long-term 20-year play.
Remember this TF1 which I’m talking about for the thorium reactor started in 2011 and they’ve gone full bore on it and China’s gone full bore on the commitment. But also remember China has studied this since the 1950s. They looked at this for such a long period of time. They knew what was in there. They didn’t know how to make it work. But when finally given the opportunity to make it work, they put everything into it.
They still do. I don’t think there’s much holiday being taken for these workers because they’re years and events developing this stuff. So it’s a huge commitment from the workers in the country to the top of the country, because in essence this will change the world. As you say, it is a revolution, thorium revolution.
I don’t see anything stopping this. In fact, what we’ve seen is they’ve now gone from saying this was 2023, that China has 20,000 years of thorium within China itself. They have 60,000 years of thorium within China itself. And I think if you look farther down the line, you’ll see that China will want to build a thorium reactor on the moon by 2040.
GLENN DIESEN: So this is unlimited supply of energy effectively.
HENRY TILLMAN: And not just for China, but the world leaders, India and Turkey. There’s plenty of this stuff around the world. It’s a lot cheaper than uranium.
Global Implications and Energy Transformation
GLENN DIESEN: Well, that’s a source for optimism though, isn’t it, the lack of scarcity. Because if there’s a lot of scarcity, you would assume there would be conflicts or if it was all concentrated in China. But with it spread across and being in abundance—will this displace gas, oil? I’m trying to wrap my head around the significance.
HENRY TILLMAN: Well, I’m in the advisory business. I think one looks at diversifying risk. I’m pretty optimistic in the near term over the midterm of green hydrogen. If you look at North Africa or Namibia or other parts of the world looking at green hydrogen to power Europe. So there’s lots of interim moves in this.
But longer term, I think thorium will play a major role in this. As I said to you, I envisage a period of time where trans-Eurasia travel will be powered by thorium. AI will be powered by thorium. The Belt and Road will be powered by thorium power. I know it sounds a bit odd, people say what’s wrong with you? But I’m pretty sure that that’s in the works.
GLENN DIESEN: Well, it’s no big secret that AI requires a lot of energy and obviously China also has the Belt and Road initiative. So this is something that really complements the wider economic activities of China then. I mean this would fuel the whole thing.
HENRY TILLMAN: I think that’s the right word to use. And I think as I said, you’re looking at lots of different options in a portfolio of energy. Even the great producers in the Gulf are seriously looking at this. I can presume that they’ll be partners for China somewhere down the road in thorium activity.
I think the world underestimates the power needed just to run data centers. I’ve read a piece someplace where the Amazon data center just outside of Washington D.C. would require the same amount of power as the city of Chicago—just one data center. So you’re going to have to have adequate power to run all this. Just the data centers alone, plus the other countries are talking about. Therefore you’ll need huge amounts of nuclear power, which is why China has a number one priority of actually leading the world in nuclear power by 2030.
Historical Context and Disruptive Potential
GLENN DIESEN: It’s so incredibly disruptive though. If we look back at the first Industrial Revolution, obviously the British had the lead, but then you had countries like China, Russia falling behind and they paid a heavy price. The Russians being defeated in the Crimean War, largely because they fell behind on the industrial revolution in the mid-19th century. And at the exact same time, you also had the Chinese being defeated in the Opium Wars. But this is going to put China in the driver’s seat again, being such a disruptive new technology.
HENRY TILLMAN: I think it’s important to look at Rosatom. We did a piece on Rosatom that’s published last year on our research website and we follow Rosatom every day. Rosatom’s done a fantastic job. Their uranium SMRs and they continue to upscale those and they just announced the Gen 4 Uranium SMR. They started FNPPs offshore in 2020.
If you look at the number of partners they have around the world, they’re in 57 countries. It’s pretty amazing. So Rosatom—no one talks about Rosatom, but it’s a $20 billion market cap company. It’s very close to President Putin. When he travels, they travel with him and they are incredibly powerful. They’ve just announced a series of wins in modular SMRs in Uzbekistan, where I’ve done some research. They’ve announced Vietnam in Q1 this year.
They’re also broadened. It’s not just uranium, it’s wind, solar and uranium production, not just nuclear. So it’s a diversified company and they’re very aggressively growing their business and it’s commercial.
ASEAN’s Nuclear Shift
I just touched on ASEAN. I just did a piece which I sent to the UK government. The ASEAN region itself, other than Indonesia, which is 2022, 2023 with thorium—in the last six months we’ve seen huge changes. Not just Vietnam with Rosatom, we’ve seen the Malaysian government say a year ago, despite all the inbound investment they had from around the world in semiconductors and solar, wind, etc., they suddenly need to start looking closely at nuclear.
So again, government led, Prime Minister led, they’re going to do this over a 12-month period of time. They’ve just decided they’re going the SMR route. It’ll take them until 2035 to do it because they want to go step by step to make sure people understand this type of nuclear is not Gen 2 nuclear which represents the accidents that happened before. These accidents can’t happen anymore in Gen 3, Gen 4. So it takes a year or two to get buy-in.
And then most recently I was very surprised to see Singapore—small island, do we really want nuclear? I think it was February 19th their Deputy Prime Minister said we should really think about this because we need something to drive these data centers. And the next day they invested $5 billion into a fund to think about how they could fund it. And they’re also searching for advisors to help them with a nuclear program. This is Singapore, highly conservative, an island, conservatively managed. And see how fast that’s moved from conservatism to “we need to jump on this.”
So I think there’s big news about the need for nuclear across not just Google and all the major players, Amazon etc., but also across these countries. But there’s not enough press or news on thorium which is why I wanted to do this with you—to teach people because there’s very little knowledge of this and there’s very little knowledge how far it goes back. The US had this technology in its hands for many, many years.
Russia’s Nuclear Position
GLENN DIESEN: Well China will obviously already taking the lead. But you mentioned Rosatom, the Russian nuclear company. Russia tends to have a very leading position on nuclear energy, having a lot of the construction of new nuclear power plants around the world on their books. They have nuclear turnkey solutions—they can build the nuclear power plants, they can operate them, they can provide the fuel, they can dispose of the waste. Do you think the Russians will be able to benefit greatly from this? Are they able to transition into it or will this be a rival to their existing industries?
HENRY TILLMAN: I think as I said before, people look at multiple different ways of approaching this. Thorium might be a piece of it, uranium might be a piece of it. But I’ll pick up your point which is an excellent one. In Zimbabwe in the last year, Rosatom made a proposal to mine uranium, build the power plant, work on the data center, deal with all the mining and also deal with the manufacturing. Comprehensive list of what it can do for the government. Turnkey list of what it can do. And that’s the skill set Rosatom has built. Very powerful for many countries across Africa.
In fact, they’re talking about now building a manufacturing plant in Guinea. So I think Russia is doing quite well. That’s a commercial business with, as I say, I think it’s $20 billion market cap with the markets today, who knows. But a sizable company and profitable. So they’re doing quite well. So I think it’s complementary because a lot of that’s going to be offshore and a lot of that’s diversified revenues across businesses is where Rosatom’s built.
Nuclear Proliferation Concerns
GLENN DIESEN: Given that unlike traditional nuclear energy, this can’t actually be weaponized, it can’t be used for a bomb, would this have a very positive impact then on nuclear proliferation? Because everyone wants a nuclear energy program. But once they get close to having the technology of building nuclear weapons, that’s usually when countries get nervous. We end up in conflicts. Do you see this as having beneficial impact on nuclear proliferation then?
HENRY TILLMAN: Well, I don’t see thorium as helping build nuclear proliferation because as you know, you really can’t weaponize it. That’s why the U.S. government, the U.S. military, and the U.S. navy chose in 1972 to say we can’t use this because we can’t weaponize it.
But I hope that the world moves this in a way that’s beneficial. I have children, I have grandchildren, and they’re passionate about this because this is a way which was stated back in 1959—this is a safe nuclear technology. Use it. It’ll help clean up the world’s CO2. It’s nothing new. China has adapted it to Gen 4 standards.
It’s hard for people to change though. I think they always joke about “change” being the hardest word in the English language. It’s hard for people to move from the past perception of nuclear. I mean I saw the Oppenheimer film. I think I have enough data to show a better film, which is this one because instead of people dying, it’s actually people living longer in a greener world. But that forces a lot of changes where people weren’t willing to do that. As we saw the oil companies refused to do that in 1959. Although Aramco has done a fantastic job, the Saudis and the UAE have done a fantastic job of actually moving into the new world.
GLENN DIESEN: In terms of developing the same technology.
HENRY TILLMAN: In terms of welcoming new technologies such as this, I would be surprised if China doesn’t have a partnership down the road in thorium with the UAE and with Saudi, among other countries.
GLENN DIESEN: I’ve seen some media reports though accusing China of stealing the technology. What do you make of those accusations?
US Technology Sharing and China’s Development
HENRY TILLMAN: The research I presented years ago, as I mentioned briefly before, in 2011 the US opened all of that technology up. I found reports where Harry Reid from Nevada and Morris Udall, the Senator from Utah, actually opened it up for China specifically. I understood that the US government personally and professionally handed that technology to Jiang Zemin’s son, who was living in the US at the time, as long as they returned it. Remember, there was a time when the US was much more friendly with other places.
I don’t see anything stolen there. The criticism Lighthizer has is that in 2008, when the US was trying to help an earlier process, a Gen 2 process bridge to Gen 3, the Chinese had a joint venture with the US where Lighthizer accused them of stealing things beyond the technology signed up for. But that has nothing to do with thorium. That was three years previously and had nothing to do with thorium.
Thorium actually was presented to the world by the US government and shared with the world in 2011. That’s why I’m delighted to be on here to make the point because I just think it’s not a good idea to spin things but be factual from the start. Thank you for asking the question.
Geopolitical Winners and Losers
GLENN DIESEN: Yeah, well, I guess my last question is given the benefit of this is quite obvious. If there is 60,000 years worth of cheap clean energy, this is huge good news. But in the geostrategic rivalry we have, do you see anyone being clear winners versus others being clear losers? Or would it be simply too early to say?
HENRY TILLMAN: It depends on who wants to put money behind it. As you’ve seen to date, the US has sprinkled funding elsewhere. They’ve not been passionate about it, where China is focused on it. They’re saying we’re going to do this as part of our strategic plan. It’s worth it. We’re driving this as a country. It’s a game changer for us in the world.
I haven’t seen that come from the US or anybody else at that level. France has done a good job. I think France is a good nuclear power and has been powered by nuclear. So I could see France playing a role here and I could see other countries playing a role here, as I mentioned before. But I can’t see anybody so far behind this because China made this decision in 2011 and doubled down in 2021, and I can’t see that changing.
GLENN DIESEN: No, this is, yeah, it’s a bit mind boggling, the whole development.
HENRY TILLMAN: I’ve been doing this since 2018, so I’m delighted. I do this every year in Iceland to try to teach 25 countries or so. This is moving, but it’s a slow process. But at least I appreciate the opportunity to talk about it, put some facts out so people understand. But this has been happening since 1959. And the US had a lockdown since 1972.
Future Expectations
GLENN DIESEN: Well, actually another last question. What can we expect to see going forward now? Because as you mentioned before, this was previously, you know, a lot of naysayers said a lot of people thought this couldn’t be done. But now of course that the Chinese have their first reactor running. What do you expect happening from here on? Will more countries rush towards this? Will the Chinese simply begin to scale it at a huge level to become energy self-sufficient? Or would it be too much speculation?
HENRY TILLMAN: Well, I can’t forecast the future, but I’m pretty sure that there’s a pretty long list of people that want to use LingLong1, which is their small modular reactor which will become commercially available next year, if not later on this year. And I’m pretty sure it’s a very long list of BRI countries that want the thorium piece when it becomes commercially available in 2029-2030.
So if you then look at how that transforms the BRI, how that transforms the world geopolitically, I’m sure the Chinese will figure this out much more than I have.
GLENN DIESEN: So the Belt and Road initiative will be the, I guess the main initiative, giving preferential treatments to countries then?
HENRY TILLMAN: Well, I think it’s the whole purpose behind the BRI, isn’t it? Whether it’s that or new form of healthcare which you haven’t talked about which is called the One Health One Drug, but that’s another story not for today. So China continues to layer in advantages of becoming part of the Belt and Road which are not necessarily visible to people that criticize it. But this is a huge one. This is transformational.
Closing Thoughts
GLENN DIESEN: You know it does feel like a revolutionary moment. Well Henry Tillman, thank you so much for your time. I really appreciate it. Fascinating topic.
HENRY TILLMAN: Well I appreciate the chance to share some of this data with people because it’s an important consideration and for me as a father and grandfather I’m feeling in pretty good shape that we’re now headed to a place where it’s not stoppable. It was paused for 40 years or 50 years and now it’s out and once the genie is out of the bottle she’s not going to go back.
GLENN DIESEN: Thanks again.
HENRY TILLMAN: Thank you.
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