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Home » Prof John Mearsheimer: Enormous Trouble w/China Awaits (Transcript)

Prof John Mearsheimer: Enormous Trouble w/China Awaits (Transcript)

Here is the full transcript of Prof John Mearsheimer’s interview on Daniel Davis / Deep Dive, January 4, 2026.

Brief Notes: In this sobering episode of the Daniel Davis/ Deep Dive, renowned international relations scholar Professor John Mearsheimer examines the mounting tensions in East Asia following large-scale Chinese military drills and an $11 billion U.S. aid package to Taiwan. Mearsheimer warns that the 2026 geopolitical landscape is fraught with risk, particularly as Japan signals its readiness to defend Taiwan, a move that the Chinese view as a direct threat to their “sacred territory”.

The conversation dives deep into the strategic “Achilles heel” of the United States—its degraded industrial base compared to China’s formidable manufacturing capacity—and the terrifying potential for a conventional conflict to spiral into nuclear war if homelands are attacked. From the vulnerabilities of aircraft carriers to the critical role of submarines, this interview provides a stark, realist assessment of why avoiding a war over Taiwan is the most vital challenge of the 21st century.

The Growing Crisis in East Asia

DANIEL DAVIS: They just had this big Chinese drill, the third large-scale where they basically rehearsed a blockade of the island. Where is this thing going and are you worried about it?

PROF JOHN MEARSHEIMER: Well, I’m very worried about it. I mean, we don’t pay much attention to it because our mind is focused on the Middle East and on Ukraine. And the potential for trouble in East Asia between the United States and China and China and its neighbors is enormous.

What you see going on vis-a-vis Taiwan is very worrying. It’s one of the three big flashpoints out there, the other two being the South China Sea and the East China Sea.

And two things have recently happened that greatly anger the Chinese. The first is that the Japanese Prime Minister said in early December of 2025 that if China were to invade Taiwan, Japan would see that in all likelihood as a threat to its survival. I think that was interpreted by the Chinese quite correctly as meaning that Japan would come to the defense of Taiwan.

And this of course enraged the Chinese because the Chinese believe that Taiwan is a domestic political issue for Beijing and it’s none of Japan’s business. Plus, you have the history of what happened in the past, especially in World War II, in terms of Sino-Japanese relations. So this was one big incident.

And then the other was, as you pointed out, we gave—we, the United States—gave $11.1 billion in military assistance to Taiwan, which is all designed to help Taiwan defend itself against an attack from China.

So you have this situation where the Chinese desperately want to take Taiwan back. They think that it’s sacred territory that belongs to them. And they also surely understand that it has great strategic value for them.

And we on the other hand, and here I’m talking not just about the United States, but the Japanese as well, we both understand that we have a deep-seated strategic interest in keeping Taiwan on our side of the ledger.

And the end result is you have this head-to-head face-off between the United States and Japan on one side and China on the other side over Taiwan. And how this plays out over time is very hard to say. But you can tell all sorts of plausible stories about how you get a war over Taiwan.

And you could do a similar thing with regard to the South China Sea and the East China Sea. And by the way, you can do a similar thing with regard to the India-China border up in the Himalaya Mountains. There have been a spate of articles that have come out to talk about the military buildup on the Indian side and on the Chinese side of the line of control up there. And of course the potential for a real war is there for sure.

So East Asia is a dangerous area, much the way the Middle East is and the way Ukraine is.

The Question of Taiwan’s Sovereignty

DANIEL DAVIS: And what are your concerns about diplomacy and sovereignty? For example, there are those who say, well, we obviously see—there are those who say, basically Taiwan is independent, so there’s no point in even messing around. We might as well just call out what it is.

But then there’s others that say, well listen, in the realistic terms of things, you have to look at this the way—what really makes sense is Taiwan helped by going down that path and saying they’re independent if that spawns a war that would be catastrophic and destructive.

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And I don’t want to go into too much detail here. My assessment is that there is no prospect even if you succeeded in stopping China from completely capturing Taiwan. I doubt we could. But even if your so-called best case scenario, you now have this situation to where you almost have permanent conflict because China will never tolerate a permanent American military presence on Taiwan.

So why would you even want to go down that path when you can, as the United States especially privately, tell the leaders of Taiwan, “We will never go to war for you. So you need to understand that. And so you need to take whatever bilateral relations you need with China to make sure that they don’t attack you. And if you go too far, you’re going to be on your own,” which would seem to preclude a war because I think the status quo can go on without any war as long as Taiwan doesn’t move anymore in that direction. What do you say to that?

PROF JOHN MEARSHEIMER: I think there is absolutely no question that we want to do everything we can to avoid a war over Taiwan as well as over the South China Sea and the East China Sea. We do not want to get into a war with China. I want to make that very clear.

But I also believe at the same time we have a deep-seated interest in containing China and not allowing it to conquer Taiwan.