Transcript of Alastair Crooke: Trump in a Hurry; Putin Patient

We don’t have to destroy the nuclear one. We can decapitate Iran. And having decapitated it, they feel it could be just like Syria. Syria is the other model that has an important impact on the consciousness of Washington at the moment.

Look, there was no revolution. There was nothing happen. The HTS led by Jolani just walked in and the shop was empty, unlocked, abandoned. They were free to just go in and take it. And I think there is still that sort of sense in Washington that Iran could be the next Syria. That could be this longed for uprising by the Iranian people that Washington seems to see much more clearly than those living in Iran.

But this uprising may take place and then Israel and America will walk into Iran, that will be taken over by new management which will be normalized with Iran and be pro-America. This is the imaginary outcome that people are looking for. The thing is that it’s widely believed.

I think one of the things that Colonel MacGregor said on your program, which is so important and absolutely, I concur with that, first of all, the Arab states are completely cowed and will not really push back at all. Syria isn’t in a capacity. Lebanon is in a weak position. Certainly the Gulf states will not push back.

Secondly, that it is viewed in the region that if US and Israel act in a combined way, they are invincible. I disagree with that. But I agree with Colonel MacGregor that that’s an underlying principle of American policy at the moment. And the last one is that the world will just go along with it. If they do decapitate Iran, take out its IRGC leadership, its religious leadership.

JUDGE ANDREW NAPOLITANO: What threat to American national security, what conceivable threat to American national security does Iran pose?

Israel First Policy

ALASTAIR CROOKE: Of course it doesn’t. It poses a presumed threat to Israel. And Iran is suggested that Iran’s ability or capacity, if they ever decided to move to a nuclear weapon, is threatening to Israel.

One of the things that is so striking in this period is that all of the team are absolutely in lockstep. What is the prime policy of the Trump administration? Protect Israel. Israel first. I mean, for me, it was extraordinary at the end when the head of the FBI, Kash Patel, said, what’s his first priority? Israel. What is the FBI saying that for that first priority, Israel.

But all of them speak in lockstep, unconstrained support for Israel. And of course, Israel needs desperately an attack on Iran, not because they’re threatened by Iran, not because they think that there is a nuclear weapon in Iran, but because the divisions in Israel have become so acute and so angry and persistent that they believe that the only thing to bring people together, as always in these conditions when the country is so deeply divided, have a war, raise the flag, bring everyone around together, find a way of coming together again by supporting a war, in this case a war on Iran together with the wars on Syria, the war on Yemen and the war in Lebanon.

National Security Advisor’s Position

JUDGE ANDREW NAPOLITANO: Here’s Mike Waltz, the President’s National Security Advisor, making a thumbnail version of the explanation that you just gave on one of the talk shows:

[Video clip: “We’ve seen the death and destruction that they’re doing through its proxies between Hezbollah, the Assad regime, the Houthis and what have you. If they had nuclear weapons, the entire Middle East would explode in an arms race that is completely unacceptable to our national security. I won’t get into what the back and forth has been, but Iran is in the worst place it has been from its own national security since 1979, thanks to Hezbollah, Hamas, the Assad regime and its own air defenses being taken out by the Israelis.”]

Does this make sense? I mean, you and Ritter and Colonel McGregor emphasize how powerful the Iran military is and how sophisticated is A) their offensive weaponry and B) their Russian supplied defensive weaponry. And here you have the President’s National Security Advisor saying they’re weak and the time to strike is now. The only thing he didn’t say was as a favor to Netanyahu.

The Urgency Behind the Iran Strategy

ALASTAIR CROOKE: It’s driven by two things, I believe. The first one is there is an agreement that a decision, in fact, there is a delegation, your old friend Ron Dermer and the security, the head of security in the atomic energy head from Israel are going to be in Washington this week arguing that there is no time to be lost.

Why is there no time to be lost? There is no time to be lost because in October, later this year, the snapback provisions of the JCPOA, the UN resolutions could all come back into force if such a resolution is tabled by one of the participating members of the JCPOA. There’s a small provision for reconciliation and then the resolution has to be tabled within 30 days. After that, it is mandatory on all UN nations to impose the sanctions on Iran. All the sanctions, all UN members. And that is the deal.

That’s why they’re talking about spring. This is a deadline, it has to be spring, because it’s going to take that long to get through to the process and then have a snapback. Snapback is automatic in the process. It was put in this way so that Russia or China couldn’t veto it. So that’s one element of it.

Russia and Ukraine Connection

I think the other element which is defining our politics at the moment is that of Russia. Why do we see this administration in such a rush to get the ceasefire and a deal with Russia? I mean, it really has been surprising to me. They didn’t really even do a proper job of defining the ceasefire. I think it’s going to be done much better with my experts this week in Saudi Arabia.

Is this just to put pressure on Putin or is it a form of going back to sort of the Kissinger triangulation that they want to deal with Russia so that when they instigate pressure or attack Iran? Because Iran, as you know, Trump has given Iran an ultimatum of two months to come to terms with this. And he said it’s all going to happen very quickly. This is down to the final moments with Iran. He said, “We can’t let them have a nuclear weapon. Something is going to happen very soon.”

So I think what’s going on between Russia and the United States on Ukraine, people have their eye looking over their shoulder at what’s likely to happen with Iran. Either Israel acting on its own, which America doesn’t want, or indeed with this team here. And we see that America has been preparing, they’re doing exercises with B-52s in the region. They’re flying them, connected jointly with Israeli aircraft. They are preparing.

And we know that the Pentagon is preparing serious plans. Pentagons always have plans for everything, of course, but this looks like a much more serious plan, including having nuclear weapons still on the table.

Peace Through Strength?

JUDGE ANDREW NAPOLITANO: So the man who said during his presidential campaign his goal is to receive the Nobel Peace Prize, is financing slaughter in Gaza, is about to invade Iran. Neither Gaza nor Iran pose the remotest threat to the United States and is in a hurry to bring about a peaceful resolution in Ukraine. I don’t get it.

ALASTAIR CROOKE: I think he thinks this is peace through strength, that the hole in the middle. It’s a peace done by killing. It’s sort of Jabotinsky plus the iron wall. It’s Jabotinsky plus it’s not possible. It’s not possible to do this. Excuse me. Someone is banging my window. Just one second and I’ll come back.

JUDGE ANDREW NAPOLITANO: Sure. Well, Alastair will be back with us in just a minute. What I’m scratching my head over this morning is how Donald Trump can be so impatient in his dealings with Vladimir Putin, but gives Bibi Netanyahu everything he wants and is willing to attack Iran. All taken care of, Alastair?

ALASTAIR CROOKE: All taken care of. So sorry for that interruption.

JUDGE ANDREW NAPOLITANO: Oh, quite all right.

Regional Domination Strategy

ALASTAIR CROOKE: I’m alone in the house and they would stop ringing the bell at me. Look, I think what they’re envisaging is, you ask me, I think actually that this is very much against the United States. Not only just this sort of blind positioning of saying we’re all in lockstep on this. Iran is… Israel is our main policy and we are going to pursue this.

They see this as the possibility to decapitate and dismember Iran and then the whole thing, the whole region will be submissive to Israel. It will be under Israel’s sort of tutelage, and that’s the solution, a peaceful solution, and then will follow normalization. They still think Syria will normalize with Israel. Iran, then, after being decapitated, will normalize and Israel will be secured.

Don’t ask me if I think that is reasonable, because I just don’t think it will happen. I think it will explode.

Putin’s Long-Term View

I think the second thing, and I want to underline that the second thing is it will be the end of Trump’s effort at normalization with Russia, with Putin, because for sure, the sentiment in Moscow, if there is an attack, as seems quite likely, on Iran in the next period, if there is such an attack, many people will say, “Listen, they had an agreement, they walked out of an agreement. Now they want to destroy Iran. Isn’t there a message in this for us in Russia? Does it mean we can’t trust that America is agreement incapable?”

And we saw over this week there was a very important statement by Putin about the future when he addressed the union of businessmen, very senior businessmen, in Moscow this month. And he said, effectively, “Look, this world, we’re not going back. You, all of you businessmen have to realize sanctions will go on. Whatever happens in the negotiations, we’re not going back to the world. You must live in the expectation that sanctions will continue.”

“Look what’s happened in the past when we had sanctions put on us and then they were lifted in the 80s, then they came back in another form. Restrictions and pressures on Russia will continue in the long term and that is not a problem, it is an opportunity for us. We must orientate towards a more self-sufficient economy, have a small element of export led going to the BRICS and we must concentrate on the payment and the financial systems in BRICS.”

And it was a very serious talk to them and he said, “Don’t think that this normalization with America is going to happen rapidly. It’s not. We are in a new world. Sanctions are permanent, they will continue. We have to reorganize and reset our mentality to adjust to that.”

And that means that we’ve got to keep going. We must not be dependent on oil and gas. I mean it’s an adjunct to our economy. But what matters now is industrial production, the internal economy to have a sufficient. He’s going back really to the 19th century economists Sergei Witte, who was a prime minister in Russia and Friedrich List who both argued against the Anglo model of an open globalized economy completely and said you have to have an economy that is largely self-sufficient and self-sustaining because if you go to a service consumer economy you’ll end up unable to give employment to your own workforce.

Russia-Iran Relations

JUDGE ANDREW NAPOLITANO: Let me take you back to America. Let me take you back to Iran. Do not Russia and Iran have some sort of a defensive agreement or pact? Or stated differently, would Moscow just sit back and allow Tel Aviv and Washington to destroy the offensive weaponry in Iran and kill civilians?

Trump’s Approach to Iran and Russia

ALASTAIR CROOKE: Well, this is precisely what I refer to with a sort of Kissinger triangulation. Then it was trying to take Russia away from China, and why they’re hurrying to get an agreement on Ukraine is to sort of detach Russia from Iran. Trump has suggested that Russia would play a role in bringing about either a new agreement or stopping anything.

Actually, there’s nothing specific in that security arrangement with Iran about it being a defensive pact—it is a trading pact. I looked at it and it says that Iran has the right to peaceful nuclear energy, but it doesn’t warn against it or anything like that. People have been saying that, but I’ve looked at the paragraphs, it doesn’t say that.

I don’t think Russia would give up Iran under pressure from America because Iran sits in the middle of the north-south corridor. This is Russia’s main trade corridor for the future, and Iran sits in the middle of the east-west corridor, which is basically the Central Asian corridor for economic development. It’s self-interest of Russia that connects it to Iran. Not some sort of willy-nilly thinking about a concert of states. It’s self-interest that is important now.

The point here is that in the memorandum that Trump signed at the time when Netanyahu visited Washington—when Trump talked about the Gaza and the new casino world of Gaza—he signed a memorandum that had all the elements from the Pompeo-Bolton memorandum. That is, Iran is not allowed the capacity not just to move to weapons, but mustn’t have the capacity to move to weapons. Secondly, it can’t be allowed to have its defensive system; its missiles must be removed. And thirdly, it’s not allowed to continue with its foreign policy.

All that is not made explicit. It’s always resolved as “oh, it can’t have the nuclear weapon.” But what Trump signed as the policy paper in that memorandum is that Iran should be completely disarmed and left naked.

The Unrealistic Demands on Iran

JUDGE ANDREW NAPOLITANO: I don’t know why Iran would ever agree to that. But here’s Mike Waltz yesterday saying just about the same thing:

“Full dismantlement. Iran has to give up its program in a way that the entire world can see. And this is, look, as President Trump has said, this is coming to a head. All options are on the table and it is time for Iran to walk away completely from its desire to have a nuclear weapon. And they will not and cannot be allowed to have a nuclear weapons program.”

This is insane. Why does Israel have a nuclear weapon without the permission of the UN? Why does Israel get away with slaughtering 50,000 innocents? Iran hasn’t done anything like that. All of this is because of the domestic political pressure on Trump and the American government imposed by the donor class.

Russia’s Skepticism and American Credibility

ALASTAIR CROOKE: Yes. And I don’t understand why they feel so tied to Israel. It’s not in America’s interest. As I say, it could blow up the agreement with Russia because it’s not a question about Putin trusting Trump or anything like this. What we’re talking about is something different.

The political class in Russia is deeply skeptical about American ability to maintain its intentions. Deeply skeptical. And an attack on Iran, even if it’s a financial attack, on an ally of Russia will be seen as an example of why America is not agreement capable. And that will tie Putin’s hands whatever he wants.

Yes, Putin would like to see normalization, but he said even last week that it has to be legally foolproof. “I’m not going to repeat and be accused of repeating the same mistakes that took place during the Minsk agreements.” And so it’ll blow up the whole program of the administration.

Yet they seem absolutely fixed, as you’ve just heard, on moving ahead for reasons I don’t fully understand. And as I’ve tried to explain, it’s not about the nuclear issue—it’s the subsidiary things that were inserted by Israel into that memorandum by Pompeo and Bolton and which were then repeated by Trump directly. He signed off on the same requirements: the dismantlement of all Iranian defensive systems and its foreign policy. It has to be rendered completely neutered.

JUDGE ANDREW NAPOLITANO: I see dark days coming, my dear friend, but thank you very much for this extraordinary analysis. All the best to you. We’ll look forward to seeing you next week.

ALASTAIR CROOKE: Thank you very much. Thank you.

JUDGE ANDREW NAPOLITANO: And coming up later today, it’s Monday. Ray McGovern at 10:00, Larry Johnson at 11:30, Scott Ritter at 3:00. And live from Yemen, his first report from Yemen at 4:00 this afternoon, Pepe Escobar. Judge Napolitano for Judging Freedom.

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