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Home » The Future of Inequality: Abhijit Banerjee (Transcript)

The Future of Inequality: Abhijit Banerjee (Transcript)

Read the full transcript of economist Abhijit Banerjee’s talk titled “The Future of Inequality” at World Knowledge Forum 2024. In the Q&A session, Yoonjae Whang, Professor of Economics at Seoul National University, interviews him.

Listen to the audio version here:

TRANSCRIPT:

YOONJAE WHANG: Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. My name is Yoonjae Whang, and I’m a professor at Seoul National University. And I’m very pleased and honored to have an opportunity to moderate this invite session by Professor Abhijit Banerjee. Professor Banerjee is one of the most famous and respected economists in the world, as far as I know, and so would not need a long introduction to be introduced.

Professor Banerjee is currently the Ford Foundation International Professor of Economics at MIT, and he received his bachelor’s degree at University of Calcutta in India and obtained a Ph.D. from Harvard University. He also worked at Harvard and Princeton before joining MIT.

His work is vast and covers a wide range of topics in development economics. He received numerous honors from prestigious academic societies. Among them, the most notable honor should be the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Science, awarded jointly to Esther Duflo and Michael Cramer in 2019 for their experimental approach to alleviating global poverty. They pioneered the use of randomized controlled trials, so-called RCTs, in economics to measure the effectiveness of policy actions, such as government interventions or government programs, in improving individuals’ lives, particularly in areas like education and health care, etc.

Their research had a profound impact on economics and opened a new paradigm for empirical research in economics. Today, Professor Banerjee will talk about the future of inequality and share his intuition on this important topic. He will first give us a keynote speech for about 20 minutes, and then we’ll have some discussion for about 30 minutes, followed by a Q&A session for the audience in the floor. And this section will be finished with short closing remarks by Professor Banerjee.

Professor Banerjee, please go ahead.

Keynote Speech by Abhijit Banerjee

ABHIJIT BANERJEE: Thank you. Thank you very much for having me. It’s an honor to be addressing this very important event, and I’m very grateful to be invited.

My topic is the future of inequality, but I don’t have a crystal ball, so mostly what I’ll talk about is the past of inequality. That’s all we can really talk about because the only guidance we have, in a sense, is past plus some contemporary evidence and some theory. Let me start with the past. In particular, I don’t want to start with the long past.

I just want to observe that we are currently, in many countries, not all actually, I’ll come to that, in a really somewhat exceptional point in the history of inequality. For a range of countries, that includes China, India, Japan, the United States, Korea, and of course many other countries, the inequality that we measure now, let’s say measured by the ratio of the incomes of the top 10% to the incomes of the bottom 50%, are at historical highs. They have never been this high since we have measured data. It doesn’t mean that 600 years ago it wasn’t higher, but since we have had data, so in many countries that data goes back to 1900.

Since 1900, we are now at global heights of inequality in these countries. In many countries, we are more unequal now than we have been in modern memory. There are others where it’s not as striking. There’s a set of European countries like the UK and Italy, which used to have a very large aristocratic class.

So, till about 19 — till the Second World War, there was a lot of inequality. But even in these countries, the current levels are higher than it’s ever been since the Second World War. So, we’re in a place which is unprecedented in some ways. We don’t have a moment in history where we measured the data and it looked like this.

Is this inevitable? Is this something about the nature of economics which makes this necessary? It makes this unavoidable? I think if you look at the recent history, some things seem clear.

One is that while there’s a lot of countries where it happens, and if you look at the global income distribution, because these are big countries, these are countries like India, China, US. The global picture looks more like these countries. But the countries which are not following this trend, and those are not necessarily European social democracies. They are actually countries like Mexico, Brazil, Indonesia, Morocco, Nigeria. These are countries where you don’t follow this trend. Inequality is actually going down in these countries. These countries are flat. And it’s striking that these are countries which historically have had very high levels of inequality.

And inequality has been a big social problem in these countries for a long time. These are the countries where inequality has not gone up in the last 30 years or so. That’s in a sense interesting that it’s precisely the countries that are famous for the inequality. Countries like Brazil, Nigeria, Indonesia. These are the countries where inequality is actually either stable or falling.

I want to make something of that, so I’ll come back to that. Other fact that is very striking is that the timing is quite specific. The inequality falls in all the countries I mentioned at the beginning till 1980 and then goes up. And some of these countries, countries like China, of course, there is a clear policy shift there. China becomes a market economy in 1979 or begins to become one. And so you see why it’s happening. But in others, it’s a turnaround that actually deserves an explanation.

So the bottom of this curve of inequality is around 1980. Now what happens in 1980? One thing that happens, I live in the US, so it’s maybe an overly US-centric perspective, is that Ronald Reagan becomes President of the US and Margaret Thatcher becomes Prime Minister of the UK in 1979.