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Home » Gordon Chang: Why Trump’s Iran Strategy Is All About China (Transcript)

Gordon Chang: Why Trump’s Iran Strategy Is All About China (Transcript)

Editor’s Notes: In this episode of American Thought Leaders, host Jan Jekielek sits down with China analyst Gordon Chang to discuss how joint U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran are fundamentally reshaping the global balance of power. Chang argues that President Trump is indirectly targeting China by cutting off its critical sources of support, particularly Iranian oil, which previously accounted for a significant portion of China’s imports. The conversation explores the idea that “all roads lead to China,” examining how Beijing’s influence is being systematically reduced in key regions like the Middle East and South America. Ultimately, Chang frames this period as an existential struggle against the Chinese Communist Party, urging a return to a “peace through strength” strategy to defeat communism worldwide. (March 1, 2026)

TRANSCRIPT:

JAN JEKIELEK: This is American Thought Leaders, and I’m Jan Jekielek. Gordon Chang, such a pleasure to have you back on American Thought Leaders.

GORDON CHANG: Thank you so much, Jan.

China’s Response to U.S. and Israel Strikes on Iran

JAN JEKIELEK: So, Gordon, hot off the presses. China’s UN ambassador on this March 1 emergency session at the UN has basically said that the US and Israel strikes were brazen violations of sovereignty and demanded an immediate ceasefire to what’s happening in Iran. What’s your reaction?

GORDON CHANG: Well, that’s China’s reaction. It’s the same one they had in Venezuela. All they did was they took the same press release, they used the white out, they took out the word Venezuela, they put in Iran, they took out the word Venezuelan, and they put in Iranian. And there you have it. China is not a superpower, if it ever wants to be. It always criticizes the U.S., but when the U.S. is determined to do something, it cannot stop us. And that shows just the limits of Chinese power.

Xi Jinping’s Maoist Playbook — and Trump’s Counter-Strategy

JAN JEKIELEK: It’s a very interesting reality you’re contrasting here, or comparing with the Venezuelan reality. And I can’t help but notice that we have two, let’s call them totalitarian leaders that have been deposed in the last very, very short period of time. What is Xi Jinping thinking?

GORDON CHANG: I think that Xi Jinping believes that President Trump is a Maoist. Remember, Mao boasted that he won the Chinese civil war because he encircled the cities from the countryside. Xi Jinping, who reveres Mao, I think has taken that page out of Mao’s playbook and used it against the US, where he looks at Ukraine, North Africa, and Israel as countryside, and the United States as the city.

Well, Trump has just taken that same policy and applied it against China, because Venezuela and Iran are countryside and China is the city. And this is extraordinarily successful. And the thing about Xi Jinping is he knows what Trump is doing, but he can’t stop him.

JAN JEKIELEK: So tell me more about what he knows what Trump is doing, because I don’t think everybody knows what Trump is doing. I don’t think everybody’s clear on that.

GORDON CHANG: Well, the narrative is that Trump is sort of gone soft on China, and on certain things he has. But if you look, for instance, at the national security strategy, it’s very clear that China is a high priority. It may not be the number one priority, which is the Western Hemisphere, but if you look through that short document, it’s clear that China is foremost in President Trump’s mind.

For instance, towards the end of it, it talks about how the United States must not allow any hostile power — the phrase that it uses — to either close off the South China Sea or impose tolls on traffic over or on the South China Sea. Well, there’s only one country that fits that description, that has that ambition and has that power.

When you look through the entire document, I believe that President Trump is going after the Chinese, and he’s not doing it directly, but he is doing it indirectly, and he’s cutting off their sources of support. Oil, for instance. Venezuela supplies maybe 3 to 4% of China’s imported oil, but Iran was somewhere between 15 and 23%, depending on the year. And that’s important because when you put those two numbers together, you get a significant portion of China’s imported oil has now been taken off the board.

President Trump may allow the Venezuelans to sell oil to China, but not at the heavily discounted rates that China was benefiting from. And Chinese factories are now dependent on cheap oil. Well, they’re not getting it anymore. If they get their oil, they’re going to have to pay market prices.

China’s Oil Imports and the RMB Settlement Factor

JAN JEKIELEK: And also just to add to that, Venezuelan and Iranian imports for China were actually settled in RMB, which most people are not willing to do.

GORDON CHANG: Yes. I mean, who wants a currency that is not a hard one? When people have a choice, they want the stronger currency. Now, Venezuela and Iran might have been forced to take a cheap currency because they didn’t have very much choice, but now they’re going to get that choice, and that means that they’re going to have to start paying dollars again.

Chinese Military Equipment Failing Against U.S. Countermeasures

JAN JEKIELEK: So I don’t know how closely you’ve been following this. I’m getting reports from a few think tanks that basically there aren’t any new anti-ship missiles or drones being shipped, or there’s no kind of rush to support Iran — an increased rush of sales to Iran since this has happened. So I’m kind of wondering, what is China really saying? What are they actually going to do? You said that they can’t do anything, but there are some things they can do. For example, they could accelerate those deliveries.

GORDON CHANG: There are reports of something like 15 to 18 Chinese cargo planes that left China’s bases and flew into Iranian airspace. We don’t know what they brought over, except that there are confirmed reports that they did sell or transfer a particular type of Chinese radar.

Now, it didn’t do the Iranians very much good, because we knew where they were, and when the Iranians powered them up on the 28th, we just took them out, so we didn’t lose any aircraft.