Max Chernov Podcast: w/ Kishore Mahbubani on US, China and the Future of the Global Order (Transcript)

So China today, if you are a leader of a Latin American country—and I give you an example from Latin America. The biggest country in Latin America is Brazil. Twenty years ago, it took Brazil one year to export $1 billion to China. Today it takes Brazil 72 hours to export $1 billion to China.

So you think Brazil is going to cut off its ties with China just to please the West? So the West is completely unrealistic. And this is one thing that Henry Kissinger told me: that the quality of mind, especially of European leaders, has gone down because they’re not looking at the different world and saying, “How do we adjust? What do we do? How do we adapt?” And when the rest of the world is adapting and the Europeans are not adapting, the Europeans are going to be left behind.

Europe’s Strategic Blindness

MAX CHERNOV: Why do you think that is? Because they’ve been living such a good life for the last while?

KISHORE MAHBUBANI: Well, I think the Europeans have been leading a very good life. And you know, by the way, when a former foreign minister of Spain, Josep Borrell, said that “Europe is a garden surrounded by jungle,” he wasn’t wrong. In some ways it’s a garden. And it’s true that the rest of the world is a jungle.

In the long run, jungles are more powerful than gardens. Gardens cannot overtake jungles. Jungles can overtake gardens. So it is Europe that must adapt. And Europe is being very unwise. And I give you an example. Europe’s long-term challenge is not going to come from Russian tanks. There’ll be no Russian tanks going to Germany or France or whatever it is.

Europe’s long-term challenge is going to come from the demographic explosion in Africa. In the year 1950, Europe’s population was double that of Africa’s.

MAX CHERNOV: Double.

KISHORE MAHBUBANI: Now Africa’s population is two and a half times bigger than Europe. But by 2100, Africa’s population could be 10 times bigger than Europe. So Europe has got to try and focus on what it can do to help Africa develop. Because if Africa doesn’t develop, there’ll be more Africans going to Europe and that would be the challenge for them.

So therefore, Europe should welcome any investment in Africa. They should therefore welcome Chinese investment in Africa. It helps Europe. But it shows you how incredibly stupid European leaders are. They criticize Chinese investment in Africa. What are you doing? You’re shooting yourself in your own foot.

Every dollar that China invests in Africa is a gift to Europe. And European leaders should write thank you notes to China and say, “Thank you, China, for investing in Africa.” But the European leaders, instead of thanking China, are criticizing China, slapping China. So this shows you the lack of strategic common sense. It’s very basic. You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to work these things out. And yet the Europeans haven’t.

MAX CHERNOV: Who is the strongest leader in Europe right now, you think?

KISHORE MAHBUBANI: Unfortunately, there are none who are thinking carefully strategically over the long run. Because, you know, Europe needs—no European leader dares to say, “Hey, the world has now changed fundamentally. We have to reinvent ourselves and go back to basics.”

For example, they have to live with Russia for the next hundred, two hundred, maybe a thousand years. You’ve got to find some kind of compromise with Russia. And, you know, I thought President Trump did the right thing when he invited President Putin to come to Alaska. “Let’s talk.” You know, diplomacy was invented so you could talk to your enemies, not to your friends.

Can you imagine? Europe has a much greater interest in how Russia does. No European leader would talk to Putin for so many years. Trump was doing the right thing. Europeans can’t do the right thing. It doesn’t mean you agree with Putin, but you’ve got to talk to him.

And the fact that President Trump not just spoke to Putin, he spoke to Kim Jong-un, and he was prepared to talk to anybody, including the new leader of Syria, who was declared a terrorist. But that’s what diplomacy was invented for 2,000 years ago.

Because, you know, you don’t need diplomatic immunity in talking to your friends. I mean, diplomacy was invented because in the old days, when ambassadors went to talk to an enemy king and when they would disagree with the enemy king, they would have their heads chopped off. Literally. Literally, heads chopped off.

So they said, “Okay, this doesn’t work, because how can you talk with a chopped-off head?” So that’s why they created the concept of diplomatic immunity. So you can go into an enemy court, you can say things that will make the king unhappy, but you are safe. You walk out with your head on your shoulders. That’s what diplomacy is for.

So Donald Trump understands diplomacy. You have to talk to your enemies. That’s what diplomacy was invented for.

The Decline of European Leadership

MAX CHERNOV: Why is there no leader of Italy or Spain or Germany which is smart and bright and truly a leader? Why is that happening?

KISHORE MAHBUBANI: Well, they used to have leaders like that, certainly. You know, I accompanied Mr. Lee Kuan Yew when he did his farewell tour of Europe. And I was with him when we had dinner in number 10 Downing Street and Mrs. Margaret Thatcher gave him a brilliant, brilliant tribute to Lee Kuan Yew, but again, showing her understanding of geopolitical realities.

Then we went to Paris and we met François Mitterrand. And François Mitterrand also had a very good global understanding of realities. And we went to Germany, we met Helmut Kohl, and this is soon after the Berlin Wall had fallen. Again, they understood the global picture.

So the leaders of the caliber of Margaret Thatcher, François Mitterrand, Helmut Kohl—and I also got to know Helmut Schmidt, the previous Chancellor—they have a different quality of mind. In fact, Helmut Schmidt would say to me, he would read my writings because, you know, I was trying to give a different point of view and he wanted to listen to a different point of view.

But right now none of these European leaders are thinking long-term, strategically about sacrifices, adjustments, painful adjustments that Europe would have to make. What’s difficult for them—and you mentioned one legitimate point—they’re so frightened of their own populations, they do not tell the population the truth.

Which is why former Prime Minister of Luxembourg Jean-Claude Juncker said, “We European politicians, we know what to do, but we don’t know how to get elected after we do the right thing.” But I think I disagree with him. I think you can tell your people honestly that the welfare state has to be dismantled because the French cannot afford the welfare state they have created because their deficits are too high. You know, you can’t pay for them.

The West’s Fear of Asia’s Rise

MAX CHERNOV: Do you think this big shift—the focus, the economy, the money, investment shifting from the Western world, so-called Western world, to the East—is it something the people in the West fear? They’re not ready, they’re not prepared, they’re anxious about Asia’s rise?

The Darwinian Vigor of America

KISHORE MAHBUBANI: Well, you know, when you talk about the West, I have to make a very significant distinction between Europe and United States because Europe is a very depressed place. I mean, if you want to meet the most pessimistic young people in the world, go to Europe. Very few of them believe that they’ll have a better life than their parents did.

By contrast, the United States is still a very strong, vibrant society. United States is still producing, you know, look at the largest companies in the world. I mean, it’s amazing. When I was growing up in the 1980s, whatever it is, I never heard of Google, never heard of Apple, never heard of Microsoft, never heard of Facebook. Look at it, amazing. These are the biggest companies in the world. They didn’t exist when I was growing up.

Only the United States can produce these incredible world-beating companies. And at the same time, you know, I’ve lived in the United States for over 14 or 15 years altogether because I was ambassador to the UN for 10 years, spent two and a half years in Washington D.C., one year on sabbatical at Harvard. And since I know American society, it is still very vibrant and dynamic in terms of the ambitions of the people.

So I wouldn’t put the West in one category. I’d make a distinction within the United States which can continually reinvent itself. And you know, in my book, Has China Won?, the key message I put in the first part of the book is never underestimate the United States of America.

MAX CHERNOV: So do you think they will reinvent themselves?

KISHORE MAHBUBANI: I think they will. Because at the same time, Winston Churchill once said very wisely, “You can always count upon the United States to do the right thing after they have explored every other option.” Very funny, but true. But Americans have a way of reinventing themselves. So it’s a remarkable society. We should continue to watch it and work with it too.

MAX CHERNOV: What’s the biggest strength of the United States and the society of the United States?

KISHORE MAHBUBANI: Well, I think the biggest strength of the United States is that it has a very Darwinian form of competition. The state doesn’t save you. And in the companies you either succeed and thrive or you fail. You’re killed. And certainly there’s a lot of creative destruction within the American economy.

So very large companies which are number one in the world, like Kodak for example. When I grew up again as a child in Singapore, the best films were made in America, Kodak. And everyone thought that Kodak would be number one in the world forever. Gone. So, you know, the very Darwinian form of competition that goes on. And I think that explains the vigor and strength of the American economy.

Singapore’s Middle Path

MAX CHERNOV: And I think it’s very different from the way it is in Singapore. Like, Singapore is kind of capitalistic, but also socialist society. And America is like, truly, truly capitalist, like individualistic.

KISHORE MAHBUBANI: Oh, yeah, definitely. I mean, in Singapore, you know, I studied philosophy and my master’s thesis did a comparison of the concepts of freedom and equality in the writings of John Rawls and Karl Marx. John Rawls was the greatest political philosopher of the United States in recent times.

And John Rawls says that the most just society is a society that takes care of the bottom 10%. And sadly, even though Rawls was a very successful philosopher in the United States, the United States does a very bad job taking care of its bottom 10%. By contrast, Singapore as a society probably takes better care of its bottom 10% than almost any other society in the world.

MAX CHERNOV: So it’s very different.

KISHORE MAHBUBANI: Very different. Very different. Singapore is still a society. I mean, as you know, the PAP was founded. The ruling party of Singapore was founded as a democratic socialist party. And the government is very, very committed to providing a safety net for everybody.

And that’s why in Singapore, most people enjoy access to good housing, good healthcare, good education, good infrastructure, good employment. So all this is the result of a government that works incredibly hard.

MAX CHERNOV: Do you think this safety net kind of prevents Singapore maybe, or young Singaporeans from being truly entrepreneurial and like, taking risks? I talked to my friend, he’s a very prominent investor, and he told me, like, when you go to the U.S. you see these super rich people, but also super poor people on the street, and you see this contrast. So you can tell your kids, if you work hard, if you learn, if you study hard, you can be here or you can be here. The gap is huge. And in Singapore, it’s not like that.

KISHORE MAHBUBANI: Well, you’re absolutely right. That’s exactly the contrast between United States and Singapore, that we certainly take better care of people who are failing than the United States does. And it’s also true that young Americans are much more entrepreneurial and much more driven than young Singaporeans.

In fact, this was one of Mr. Lee Kuan Yew’s nightmares because he saw that the welfare states in Europe had made their populations very reluctant to work hard. “Why should I work hard? I will get a pension. I can retire on my pension.” So Mr. Lee Kuan Yew was determined not to create a similar welfare state.

And that’s why in Singapore, for every government service, the government insists on co-payment so that you never get anything for free. If you get something for free, there’s over-consumption. So that principle of co-payment, I think is very important. So it ensures that any welfare services are not abused and overused like the British healthcare services are.

MAX CHERNOV: So it’s maybe somewhere in the middle between Europe and America.

KISHORE MAHBUBANI: That’s right. It tries to be somewhere in the middle between Europe and America.

MAX CHERNOV: Yeah, like in Europe, it’s hard. If you are an employer, you cannot let people go. And then you need to pay for two years, you need to pay the salary. In the U.S. it’s not like that. So, yeah.

KISHORE MAHBUBANI: What I found shocking in the U.S. is that I met somebody at a cocktail party. So I asked him, “How was your day?” He said, “Well, I had a rough day.” I said, “Why?” He said, “I had to sack 50 of my staff.” And one of the ladies came up to me and said, “You know, I’ve just been told that I have cancer, I don’t have a house, I’m living in my car, and if you sack me, I have nothing.” And he had to sack her.

MAX CHERNOV: That’s the reality, right?

KISHORE MAHBUBANI: That’s the reality. That’s a cruel reality. In Singapore, I think that you would have some kind of safety net for people like that.

America’s Strategic Challenge

MAX CHERNOV: What do you think the biggest challenges that U.S. needs to overcome to become like top of the game again?

KISHORE MAHBUBANI: Well, I think it’s important for a lot of my writings. You know, things like Has China Won? The book was actually designed in an effort to help the United States prepare itself for a world that it can no longer dominate.

And, you know, the advice I give to the United States is the advice that President Bill Clinton gave to the United States. President Bill Clinton gave a speech at Yale in 2003, a brilliant speech. He said, “If America is going to be number one forever, then we can keep on doing what we’re doing. We’re number one.”

Then Bill Clinton added a “but,” which is very unusual. “But if we can conceive of a world where we are no longer the dominant political, military, economic, cultural superpower,” then he adds, “surely it is in America’s interest to strengthen multilateral rules, multilateral norms, multilateral processes, multilateral institutions that would then create a stable world in which America can live in as number two.”

MAX CHERNOV: Number two. He said, wow.

KISHORE MAHBUBANI: Yeah. He was very careful. He didn’t say number two. No, no. Bill Clinton is very, very smart. No politician in America can say the words that America will become number two. You cannot.

MAX CHERNOV: You cannot.

KISHORE MAHBUBANI: If you say that you’ll finish politically. In fact, Bill Clinton wanted to give this speech that he gave in 2003 after he stepped down. You know, if you look at my book The Great Convergence, I described the process. You know, his deputy Secretary of State was a friend of mine, Strobe Talbott, an American journalist at the time.

And Strobe Talbott describes in his book how Bill Clinton wanted to give that same speech when he was president. You know, “Let’s prepare for becoming number two.” And all his advisors said, “Mr. President, if you give a speech saying America should prepare for becoming number two, you’ll be dead, dead meat.”

Americans cannot. No American politician can use the words that America can become number two. But, you know, it can happen. Surely it can happen, so why not prepare for it? So I think what the United States needs now is a strategic reboot and to think long term and strategically. What kind of world does America want to live in when it is no longer as dominant in the way that it was in the 40s, 50s, 60s, 70s? It’s a different world that’s coming.

MAX CHERNOV: I interviewed numerous billionaires, politicians, celebrities, investors on this channel for the last three years. And many of them became my friends. Some even bought my services. And I started this project from scratch when I moved to Singapore. I didn’t know anyone. My English was not great. But I really wanted to make it work because I strongly believe that people around you is the most valuable asset for success in life. So I’m gathering a small group of interesting people and bringing them for a short networking retreat in Phuket. And you can join us too. You will expand your network, improve your conversational skills, and we will just have fun together. I’m even setting up a meetup with a billionaire at his mansion. So it’s going to be a very unique experience to join us here in beautiful Phuket. Jump on the early bird waiting list. To do it, scan this QR code or click the link in description.

So the number one will be China or like Asia overall, how would you describe it?

Birth Pangs of a New World Order

KISHORE MAHBUBANI: Well, it will be a multipolar world. In fact, I know the new world that is coming. The texture and chemistry of this world will be very different because we are also ending 200 years of Western domination of world history. That’s coming to an end too.

So we are moving from a mono-civilizational, unipolar, unilateral world towards a world that I describe as a 3M world. 3M is multi-civilizational, many successful civilizations, multipolar, many different poles of power, you know, including India, Russia, Japan and others. And also multilateral, where you strengthen multilateral institutions in an interdependent world.

So the nature of the world order that is coming is very different from the one that we’ve had over the last 80 years since World War II. But you know, when you give birth to a new world order, there are lots of birth pangs. Giving birth is very painful. I’ve been present when my children were born. I know how painful it is. So we are in the process of giving birth to a new world order, and it is going to be very painful.

MAX CHERNOV: So right now it is happening right now.

KISHORE MAHBUBANI: It is happening right now, yes. As you and I are speaking.

MAX CHERNOV: How many years will it take, this transition?

KISHORE MAHBUBANI: Decades. Decades. Decades. Decades. Nothing changes very fast. You cannot change the mindsets of people very fast. So there’s a whole generation of people in Washington D.C. who assume that America will be number one forever. So what’s the reason for changing?

And I actually, as a friend of the United States, am saying, “Hey, what you have enjoyed in the last 80 years is artificial. It’s unusual.” I mean, United States at the end of World War II had less than 5% of the world’s population and 50% of the global GNP. That’s how you get the American century.

But that was unnatural. How can 5% of the world’s population have 50%? Now America is down to 25%. It will go down some more. America will still be a very powerful country, but not in the way that it could dominate the world.

MAX CHERNOV: So if we go back to China, so China’s vision is like super long term, right? So they’re thinking like 50 years, 100 years, which is very different, right? Different approach to make this.

The Chinese Long-Term Strategic Vision

KISHORE MAHBUBANI: Absolutely, yeah. Certainly they’re thinking 10, 20 years down the road. Which is why, I mean, I just gave one statistic. In the year 2000, China’s share of global manufacturing was only 5%. By 2030, it is likely to reach 45%.

Now, do you think China went from a 5% share to 45% share absentmindedly? No. As a result of very careful, thorough, long-term planning with the right strategic decisions on which industries to invest in. To invest in the industries of the future, in solar power, in wind turbines, in battery technology, in electric vehicles. Those were strategic long-term decisions that were made a long time ago.

And that’s an example of our strategic thinking. Long-term strategic thinking. So the Chinese are already anticipating what the problems will be 10 years from now. And what do you do today to take care of the problem of ten years from now? No European leader, not one is saying, “Europe’s problem 10 years from now is this, I better take care of it now.” No, no, no. They’re only thinking, “How do I get re-elected next year?”

MAX CHERNOV: I’m pretty sure we’ll have like comments under the video saying, like, about China, but “at what cost?” They say, okay, China is progressing, but at what cost is what? Would you reply to this?

The Liberation from Poverty

KISHORE MAHBUBANI: Until you have experienced poverty, you have no idea how debilitating it is to you. It deprives you of your human dignity. I can tell you that the most liberating moment of my life came when my house finally got a flush toilet. For 13 years of my life, there was a can filling up all day. And we have to live with that can, right? All day.

So being liberated from poverty is the most liberating for a human being to experience. I experience it. The one country that has lifted more people out of poverty than any other country in human history is China. So when the Westerners say, “at what cost?” I say, haven’t you noticed that 800 million people have been lifted from poverty? That they have now enough food to eat, they have clothes to wear, they have schools to go to, they have houses to live in. Haven’t you noticed that?

And have you noticed that the life expectancy of the Chinese has gone up from about 40 years at the end of World War II to over 70 years today? How many more years of human well-being has been added by China to its Chinese people? So when you say “at what cost,” your eyes are closed.

India’s Rising Potential

MAX CHERNOV: What’s your thoughts on modern India like? India’s structure and philosophy is very different from China. It’s like, it’s so diverse, like it’s democratic. There are different languages. What’s your… Do you think India is going to the right direction? And what’s your takes on India?

KISHORE MAHBUBANI: Well, you know, I’m bullish for China’s prospects. I’m equally bullish, if not more bullish for India’s prospects because, you know, I’m not ethnically Chinese, I’m ethnically Indian and I’ve been going to India regularly. And now the level of confidence that the Indians have in their own future is about the highest they have had in the centuries. So that’s why I’m very confident that India will do well too.

And you know, in some ways, if you want to know the potential of Chinese and Indians, of Chinese people and Indian people, just go to the most competitive human laboratory in the world, which is the United States of America. Which ethnic groups are the ones that are more successful within the United States?

MAX CHERNOV: India, India’s by far Indians.

KISHORE MAHBUBANI: By far. In fact, the Indians have the highest per capita income of any ethnic group in the United States. And you know, look at how many of the biggest companies in the world have Indian CEOs. Google has an Indian CEO, Microsoft has an Indian CEO. So I mean India is a country with tremendous potential.

But of course I want to emphasize one point. Both China and India will succeed, but they’ll succeed in different ways because there are different civilizations, different cultural traits. India will not succeed like China. They in the same way.

MAX CHERNOV: Can you elaborate on that? What’s the Indian path?

KISHORE MAHBUBANI: Well, I mean the Indians, for example, have not been able to create, for example, a world-class manufacturing capability. I think they can, but they haven’t done so compared to the Chinese. But they have created a world-class services capability and I think they can continue to do more of that. The Indians have tremendous reservoirs of talent that they can count on both inside India and outside India too.

The Deep State Question

MAX CHERNOV: You met so many like powerful people and you had like private dinners, private conversations with them. Like I want to ask you, I always wanted to ask like you this question. Actually there is a conspiracy theory that there is a deep state. Like some, you know, hidden government exists. Does it really exist? Or it’s a…

KISHORE MAHBUBANI: No, there’s no, there is a deep state within countries for sure. I mean within the United States there is a deep state. I mean, so the key policymakers in Pentagon, CIA, DIA do talk to each other and do try to achieve a consensus. And so in the Five Eyes community, you know, the Five Eyes communities, United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. So there is a deep state there where there’s a lot of intelligence, collaboration and honest trustworthy communications among the five of them.

But by and large, I think it’s actually good if leaders can meet and develop trust with each other and talk to each other regularly. And that I think is never a bad thing when leaders talk to each other. Because I’ve seen with my own eyes how people change the opinions of people as a result of direct encounters.

So for example, take Singapore, right? Why has Singapore been at peace for 60 years now since it became independence? Total peace. Because one of the key reasons is that soon after Singapore became independent, we hanged two Indonesian marines. Indonesian President Suharto got very upset and the Singapore embassy was burnt. So we could have had years and years of problems between Indonesia and Singapore.

But Mr. Lee Kuan Yew did the bold thing. He went to Indonesia, put flowers on the graves of the two Indonesian Marines that we hanged. And a painful chapter was closed. And then there was a very good personal relationship between President Suharto and Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew. I was present when the two leaders met.

So it’s good when leaders talk to each other. So I would tell the European leaders, please talk to people, not people who agree with you. Talk to people who disagree with you. Go and talk to President Putin.

MAX CHERNOV: When people say about Deep State, they mean more like Rothschilds or like Bill Gates. That’s the real, like some people that control everything.

KISHORE MAHBUBANI: There is definitely a group of people who are more influential than other people, but it doesn’t mean that they control everything. And to me, the real proof of this is the fact that the Deep State, all the people you mentioned came together. All the money in the most powerful city in the world, New York City, all the money came to stop Zoran Mamdani from being elected and she still was, and he failed.

So it shows you that money alone cannot run the world. At the end of the day, you have to win over the trust and affection and confidence of the people, which is what Zoran Mamdani has done. And by the way, I was very impressed by the meeting with between President Donald Trump…

MAX CHERNOV: Oh yeah, I saw.

KISHORE MAHBUBANI: And Zoran Mamdani. It’s amazing. These two men are exact opposites, but the fact that they could get along is very good for New York City.

Learning from Singapore’s Founding Fathers

MAX CHERNOV: What the more like the most interesting people that you met, like someone that we talk about like when you we talk about like Henry Kissinger, but someone who really, really like maybe changed your perspective on things or like some super memorable meeting that you can recall.

KISHORE MAHBUBANI: Well, I mean, I have to be very honest, you know, I’m a very lucky man that I’ve published 10 books and some of them have done reasonably well. And the only reason why I have been able to write 10 books is because I learned so much just through like an osmosis process by working with three great minds and the three great minds, Lee Kuan Yew, Goh Keng Swee, Rajaratnam.

I spent hours with them having dinner with them, talking to them, listening to them. And then gradually I saw how brilliant and ruthless they were in their analysis. Incredibly brilliant, incredibly ruthless. And they would cut out all the rubbish, cut out all the nonsense and go straight down to the heart of it matter. And that’s an exceptional skill that they had.

And you know, when you sit at the feet of three great masters, as I did, I didn’t know this. I was just learning so much from them. And I honestly believe that I would not have had the same impact in my writings as I’ve had if I had not spent time with these three gentlemen.

MAX CHERNOV: So one is like to cut the noise, right? What are the other like? Maybe you can give some examples, like what are the biggest insights or lessons from them?

KISHORE MAHBUBANI: Well, I would say I’m not sure whether I’m allowed to use this word on your program, but they were the first to smell bullst and they would cut out all the bullst. Amazing. They would just dismiss it, just sheer rubbish and get down to the hard, painful realities of the world as it was. And they were incredibly disciplined and rigorous in their analysis.

This is where the exact opposite of when you listen to European leaders, you know, they talk with such fluff and such language. They live in an unreal world, you know, and they don’t. And European leaders are not even aware that the rest of the world looks at them and say, “You’re talking bullst.”

And this is what you never got from Mr. Lee Kuan Yew or Dr. Goh or Mr. Rajaratnam, other world leaders who have met these three individuals, also amazed by them. I mean, after Dr. Goh Keng Swee retired, he was requested to advise Mr. Deng Xiaoping. And in my view, if you ask me who was the greatest leader of the 20th century, I would say is Mr. Deng Xiaoping because he rescued more people from poverty than any other world leader in human history.

Now, can you imagine a leader of the caliber of Deng Xiaoping? Who does he turn to for advice? Dr. Goh Keng Swee.

Experiencing Singapore’s Racial Riots

MAX CHERNOV: I’ve read the book of Lee Kuan Yew and like reading the history about Singapore that times were quite turbulent in terms of like the fights between different like demographics and ethnicities in Singapore. Did you experience it like being from India, like being from Hindu background and ethnicity, like any conflicts with Chinese and this kind of stuff?

KISHORE MAHBUBANI: Well, I think fortunately, you know, Singapore’s population is 75% Chinese, 15% Malay, Muslim, and about then at that time, 6, 7% Indian. So the Indians were the smallest minority. So the Indians were not involved in the ethnic rivalry that existed then within the Chinese community and the Malay community.

But I did experience racial riots. If you look at my memoirs, Living the Asian Century, I described how a bus driver was driving a bus in, you know, a Malay bus driver, only a few hundred yards from my house. And when the riot started, some Chinese gangster stopped him and took a long pole and pushed the pole through him and killed him. And this happened within a few hundred yards of my house.

And so I experienced the curfews. The government immediately imposed a curfew and during the curfew you couldn’t leave the house. But my mother needed some bread. So I would crawl in the drain, literally crawl in the drain to the bakery and buy the bread and crawl back in the drain back to my house. So that’s what I would do. So, I mean, I experienced the racial riots of Singapore.

And my neighbour, Malay neighbour, when he thought the riots were over, he decided to go to the office one day again, he walked a couple of hundred yards from my house. Then he was beaten up and he came back with bruises all over, blood. And I saw him, I saw how he was beaten up. So I had personally seen, but I mean, I wasn’t beaten up because Indians were not attacked by either the Malays or the Chinese.

MAX CHERNOV: When was the turning point for Singapore, if you remember, when this chaotic atmosphere start to be more normalized, more structured?

# Singapore’s Independence and Early Leadership

KISHORE MAHBUBANI: Well, there’s no single turning point, but certainly independence. The Declaration of Independence on 9 August 1965 was a traumatic moment. I do remember everyone feeling very depressed. The radio kept repeating Mr. Lee Kuan Yew’s announcement. We could be hearing the radio over and over again, Singapore separating and so on, so forth.

And everyone thought the same: Singapore is finished. How can Singapore survive? Because every city needs a hinterland. So we were a city cut out from the hinterland, like a heart being taken out of a body and the heart needs a body. So we were the urban heart of Malaysia in some ways and we were cut off.

So at that time there wasn’t much hope. But I think as Singapore began to progress in the late 60s and early 70s, I think by the mid-70s already, you could feel that Singapore was succeeding and thriving and growing. And I think the first generation of leaders of Singapore, especially Lee Kuan Yew, Goh Keng Swee and Rajaratnam, were exceptional, exceptional people and their competence came through, their confidence came through. And Singaporeans then began to feel a bit more relaxed and more confident about their future.

MAX CHERNOV: What do you think? Like the biggest decisions that Lee Kuan Yew, his team, made, like maybe top three decisions that actually made Singapore what we know now as Singapore.

The Three Foundational Decisions

KISHORE MAHBUBANI: Well, I think the first and most important decision they made was to not tolerate corruption. And you know, there was a Minister of State, like a deputy minister, who was invited by his businessman friend to go on holiday. And I remember his name, you know, the minister, Wee Toon Boon. The minister told the businessman friend, “I have no money. I can’t go with you on holiday.” The businessman said, “Don’t worry, don’t worry, I’ll pay for you.”

So he went, he accepted that offer. A free holiday. Went on a free holiday and came back and immediately was charged, arrested and went to jail. And so when a minister goes to jail for accepting a free holiday, everybody gets a message: oh, the minister can go to jail. I can go to jail too. So I think that was a very powerful signal that was sent that Singapore would accept zero corruption.

And I can tell you, when I was young and I was applying to get a driving license, my driving instructor said, “Don’t worry, I can pay $100 and give you the license.” It was in the 1960s, but then, can you imagine, we were typical third world country with, you know, bribes, corruption and all that. So the first major decision was to kill corruption. And that’s very, very critical. That, I think, was a big decision.

And then, of course, Dr. Goh Keng Swee had confidence that even though Singapore had no natural resources, we could attract investment. So he went ahead and took some swampland marshes in Jurong, cleared it up for factories, and people said, “That’s Dr. Goh’s folly. He has cleared the land. Who’s going to invest in Singapore?”

And amazingly, Dr. Goh Keng Swee was right. You cleared the land, you provide the infrastructure and incentives, and the investment came. And Singapore did an absolutely amazing job in attracting investment. So I think that was the second. So, you know, it was Mr. Lee Kuan Yew who led the fight against corruption. Dr. Goh Keng Swee led the economic development of Singapore.

And Mr. S. Rajaratnam also gave a brilliant speech in the UN I think way back in the 60s, soon after Singapore became independent, laying out the principles of Singapore’s foreign policy. We would remain independent. We would not align with anyone, not become allies with everybody, and we would try to be friends with everybody.

And the decision not to become an ally was a very important decision, that we’re not going to be tied to any great power. Maybe we could be friendly to the United States, but we’re not an ally of the United States. And so some of the fundamental principles were put in there.

And I can tell you I accompanied Mr. Rajaratnam when he went on an official trip to Moscow in 1976. And I still remember, amazingly, the meeting with Mr. Gromyko, the then foreign minister, and Mr. Rajaratnam telling Mr. Gromyko, saying, “Mr. Minister, Singapore is non-communist, but we are not anti-communist. We will cooperate with the Soviet Union if we have to.”

And he said, “We welcome American naval vessels to Singapore. We welcome Soviet naval vessels to Singapore.” And that was a very strong signal that we’re not getting involved on either side in the Cold War.

And I can tell you, in those days, it was unbelievable. At that time, you know, Soviet Union was rising as a power. I remember going down for breakfast in the guest house and there was a table, I think that was twice the size of this room and every square inch of the table you had some kind of food, you had caviar, you had ham, you had blinis, you had amazing variety and a spread. And the signal was, “You see how rich and powerful the Soviet Union is.”

Singapore’s Non-Aligned Foreign Policy

MAX CHERNOV: Do you think Singapore is still like on this track, on this course? Okay, we’re not taking sides. We’re friends with everyone, but we’re not allies with everyone.

KISHORE MAHBUBANI: I think the principle does remain the same. Singapore will not become an ally of any great power because Singapore understands very well that any great power will put its own interests first and not the interests of its allies. That’s been true for 2,000 years. And so we don’t want to be an adversary or enemy of any great power. In fact, we want to be useful to the great powers. And that’s what Mr. Lee Kuan Yew tried to do. But we will not become allies.

MAX CHERNOV: What was the big idea of Singapore before? Like in the 80s, in the 90s, the big idea of the country spread by Lee Kuan Yew and his government, his team.

Singapore as a Global City

KISHORE MAHBUBANI: Well, the big idea of Singapore was the one that was expressed by Mr. Rajaratnam because he gave a speech, you know, when someone said, when people were asking, “We’re a city, we’re cut off from our hinterland, how can we survive? We are a heart without a body.”

And Mr. Rajaratnam was brilliant. He said, “Our body is the world.” So he said Singapore will become a global city. Now when he said that, nobody believed him. Nobody. How can Singapore, small city, become a global city? But Mr. Rajaratnam was so far ahead of his time. He saw it coming.

And you know, we were very lucky because in the 80s, especially after the Reagan-Thatcher revolution, globalization was so much in vogue and Singapore rode the tidal wave of globalization.

And I can tell you one of the highlights of my life is that I accompanied Mr. Lee Kuan Yew when he was invited. This is a great honor, honor for Singapore. By the way, remember in 1985, Singapore was only 20 years old, small country, but yet the Prime Minister was invited to address a joint session of the US Congress.

In fact, I played a small part in arranging it because I was asked to speak to the Secretary of State, George Shultz, when he came to New York, when I was ambassador, nudged him to arrange that invitation. And when the invitation came through, it was a great honor to address the joint session of the US Congress.

And the speech that Mr. Lee Kuan Yew gave 40 years ago in 1985 is still worth reading now because what he said, he said, he thanked America. He said, “Thank you very much for creating an open world. Thank you very much for telling us to lower our trade barriers. Thank you very much for telling us to have free trade agreements.”

And you know what, “Thanks to your advice, we have succeeded.” But then he also added, and this is the 1980s when the United States was imposing tariffs on Japan. He says, “Think carefully before you impose tariffs on Japan. At the end of the day, you must allow the competition to happen and continue.” And it was really a brilliant speech by Mr. Lee Kuan Yew.

Personal Encounters with Lee Kuan Yew

MAX CHERNOV: What was your personal experience with him, what kind of person he was?

KISHORE MAHBUBANI: He’s clearly the most intimidating person I’ve ever met. And you know, I’ve been scolded by Mr. Lee Kuan Yew several times. In my memoirs, I describe how I was actually invited to join the People’s Action Party, the ruling party, and run as a member of Parliament.

So the then Foreign Minister, Mr. Dhanabalan, asked me to apply. So I applied. And I didn’t ask to join, I was asked to join. So I said, okay, I applied. So I passed the first round of interviews, second round of interviews. But as I described in my memoirs, in the third round of interviews, there was Mr. Lee Kuan Yew and a few ministers interviewing me in the cabinet office.

And Mr. Lee Kuan Yew was brutal in his criticisms of me. It was very clear that he didn’t want to select me to join the party. But it was such a searing experience to be scolded by him. But you know, at the same time, I can tell you, many civil servants of my generation, all of us have been scolded by Lee Kuan Yew. We still carry the scars on our back, but we also carry it as a badge of honor. And we say, “Yes, I too was scolded by Mr. Lee.”

MAX CHERNOV: And I guess if he was not tough, it wouldn’t be that much of a result.

KISHORE MAHBUBANI: No, but, yeah, that’s right. But at the same time, I have to add, to be fair to him, that in the 1990s, after he stepped down as Prime Minister, he had very more time. Every few months, he would invite three of us for lunch. Ambassador Tommy Koh, Ambassador Chan Heng Chee and myself.

And at these lunches in the Istana, in a small room, the four of us, Mr. Lee Kuan Yew was the best listener in the world. Even if he disagreed with you, he would listen first. He would never discourage you from saying anything, expressing any opinion, because he wanted to know the truth.

And so, you know, you had Lee Kuan Yew, the very formidable, tough, disciplined, ruthless leader in public, and then the very open-minded, avid listener in private with a willingness to engage you and talk to you. You know, so that’s why Lee Kuan Yew is a very complex man.

And sadly, there is no good biography of Mr. Lee Kuan Yew that captures the rich complexity of the man. You know, I can tell you, just today, I was walking along East Coast Park and I listened to podcasts. And today when I heard a podcast, Ezra Klein was interviewing Fareed Zakaria. Today, I was listening to it and Ezra Klein said to Fareed Zakaria, “You’ve interviewed so many world leaders, who’s the most impressive world leader you’ve interviewed?”

Within a split second, Fareed Zakaria said, “Lee Kuan Yew.” And by the way, another story which I also tell in my memoirs, in 1999, I was in St. Petersburg, Russia, and at that time, George H.W. Bush, the first president, Father Bush, was being interviewed by David Frost, a very famous British BBC journalist.

So David Frost asked President George H.W. Bush, “You met so many world leaders, who is the single most impressive world leader you met?” Within a split second, George H.W. Bush said, “Lee Kuan Yew.”

So I immediately wrote a note to Mr. Lee Kuan Yew and said, “Dear Mr. Lee, President George H.W. Bush says, you know, most…” I’m sure he was happy to get that note.

MAX CHERNOV: Yeah.

KISHORE MAHBUBANI: But this is the remarkable thing about Mr. Lee Kuan Yew. He was the leader of a very small country, but the impact he made was global.

MAX CHERNOV: What’s the big idea or maybe the next big idea for Singapore right now? Because Singapore, like, economically already there, like super developed. But what’s next for the country?

Singapore’s Fortunate Position

KISHORE MAHBUBANI: Singapore is in many ways a lucky country. I mean, number one is lucky because its founding fathers were as brilliant as, if not more brilliant than America’s founding fathers. I think it’s a real tragedy that many Singaporeans, especially the young Singaporeans, have no idea that the extraordinarily good life they are enjoying today is due to the fact that we had three exceptional founding fathers: Lee Kuan Yew, Goh Keng Swee, Rajaratnam. That was the first wave of luck.

The second wave of luck that came was globalization. Right? I mean, in the 1980s and 1990s, with the Cold War, the global economy could have shrunk, right? Could have broken up. Instead, the global economy opened up and there was American investment coming all over the world. And Singapore is amazing, the amount of American investment we attracted. So we rode this wave of globalization and succeeded.

But now today we are also very lucky because the center of gravity of the world’s economy, which used to be somewhere in Europe in the 19th century and then was in United States in the 20th century, the center of gravity of the world’s economy is moving towards us, towards East Asia especially. So we are now going to ride on the Asian century.

And you know, I can tell you that when I launched my open access book of essays called The Asian 21st Century in 2022, the German publisher said we should aim for 20,000 downloads. But instead of 20,000 downloads, there have been 4.23 million downloads. You know why? The whole world is psychologically preparing for the Asian 21st century and that Singapore is the natural capital of the Asian century.

MAX CHERNOV: So it will be like center of the brains concentrated here, like the smartest people, investments. What will be exactly the role?

The Profound Economic Shift to Asia

KISHORE MAHBUBANI: Well, it means that the economic growth will be in this region. I give you one statistic so you understand. In 2000, when the 21st century opens, in the year 2000, the combined GNP of the European Union countries is eight times bigger than China. In 2025, China and Europe same size. By 2050, Europe is half the size of China.

So you can see, can you look at this? Any future historian looks at this to be amazed. How is it? In the year 2000, Europe is eight times bigger than China. And by 2050, Europe is half the size of China. Now this is one of the most profound fundamental shifts in world history that is happening in our time.

And China is, by the way, not all of Asia. India is also growing. Right? Again, in the year 2000, the British economy was 3.5 times bigger than India’s. In the year 2000, today India’s economy is bigger. By 2050, India will be four times bigger than UK. So in the year 2000, UK almost four times bigger than India. By 2050, India will be four times bigger than UK.

And ASEAN, where we are in Singapore is part of ASEAN. In the decade 2010 to 2020, even though it’s one-fifth the size of the European Union, contributed more to global economic growth than the entire European Union did. So all the growth is happening here. And so Singapore clearly is in the right place at the right time.

A Difficult Childhood

MAX CHERNOV: I’ve read that your childhood was quite difficult and not very well off. The family was. Can you share, how was your childhood look like?

KISHORE MAHBUBANI: Well, I mean, I was definitely very poor. When I went to school at the age of six, I was put in a special feeding program because I was technically undernourished. And we would go to the principal’s office and there would be a big pail of milk, one ladle. And about the 12 or 15 boys who were technically underweight were given, each drank milk from the same ladle. And so that’s clearly an indication.

Of course, we live in a one bedroom house for six of us. And my father kept losing his job. He was, unfortunately, he lost his parents. He was orphaned in his first year, so he didn’t have a proper upbringing. So when he was sent to Singapore in 1933 at the age of 13, he developed bad habits like smoking, drinking, gambling. And so he was not a very good father.

And as a result of that, we had debt collectors coming to our house and my father hiding under the bed when the debt collectors came. And, you know, so it was a rough, difficult childhood. But what saved me was a very strong mother. So at the end of the day, I am where I am today because clearly our mother protected us from all that turbulence that we experienced through childhood.

MAX CHERNOV: What was the biggest memories from your childhood?

KISHORE MAHBUBANI: Well, it’s a combination of turbulence and learning. Turbulence because when my father would get drunk, he would do sometimes crazy things. Sometimes my neighbors would come to me and say, “Your father is fallen into the drain. Go and pick him up.” So I go and pick up my father from a drain because he was drunk.

And then one Deepavali, you know, we were Hindus to celebrate Diwali or Deepavali. And he got very angry. So normally for Deepavali you get new clothes and new television set. He burned everything in a bonfire in front of our house. So I have vivid memories, visual memories of that bonfire in front of our house, you know. But that’s the kind of turbulence I experienced in my childhood.

Saved by Reading

But I also, I mean, frankly, at a very young age, what saved me was that I discovered the Joo Chiat Public Library. It was a simple single story building about one kilometer away, or maybe a bit more. And I would walk there regularly with a good friend of mine, Jeffrey Seng, and I would borrow three or four books a week. And somehow or other I did a lot of reading.

And I think that reading saved me because in my house there were no books. None of my parents went to university, so we had no idea of books at all. There were no books. So somehow I fell in love with reading and that saved me. And that at the end, they explained why I did well in school and got bursaries and scholarships and ended up in university, which I shouldn’t have been.

MAX CHERNOV: You are 77.

KISHORE MAHBUBANI: 77. 77.

MAX CHERNOV: How does it feel to be 77?

Active at 77

KISHORE MAHBUBANI: I thought that my life would slow down. You know, I’m technically retired. I mean, I don’t have a job. But I would say that the 77th year of my life, 76, 77, has been among the busiest years of my life. And it’s not me. It’s not me personally. I think there is around the world a tremendous desire to learn more about Asia and the Asian century.

And I’ve been fortunate. I’ve been writing about the return of Asia for 30 years now. I wrote my first essay in the National Interest called “The West and the Rest” in 1992, 33 years ago. So for 30 years I’ve been writing about the rise of Asia and the return of Asia, and it’s happening. So when people want to say, you know, who can we listen to? Who can we talk to? I get lots of requests.

So I have, my problem is I get so many invitations to speak. That is a big challenge. Deciding which to accept and which to turn down.

MAX CHERNOV: Do you think you will ever retire? You want this or you?

KISHORE MAHBUBANI: Well, you know, I have observed people who are older than me whose minds are still amazing. I’ll give you an example, Professor Wang Gungwu. He’s 95 years old, and he can go on the stage and speak for an hour with no notes and give you brilliant insights into Asian history. Age of 95. So that’s my dream, to be able to do that if I get to 95.

And I’ve also discovered, since I had many friends in the 70s and 80s, that those who continue to remain active and engaged and who challenge their mind. So most of the time, when I go up to speak on a stage, I have no notes. I speak for 30 minutes, 45 minutes, and I try to remember the whole speech. By doing that, I’m stretching my brain as much as possible. And the more I stretch my brain, I think the better off I am. So I don’t see myself slowing down anytime soon.

MAX CHERNOV: Living on that. Like lying on the beach in Phuket.

KISHORE MAHBUBANI: No, I try to take breaks. And I try, I mean, I do play golf whenever I can. Yesterday, I cycled 20 kilometers along East Coast Park. And so I do do things that are physically pleasurable.

MAX CHERNOV: Do you have any regrets in life?

Failures as Blessings

KISHORE MAHBUBANI: Well, I mean, again, if you look at my memoirs, you will find that I talk a lot about my failures. In fact, when I, you know, this year I spoke at the Jaipur Literature Festival, which is one of the major literary festivals in the world. And my interlocutor was Mr. Amitabh Kant. He’s a very important and influential person in India. He’s the G20 Sherpa for India.

So before he interviewed me on stage, he said to me, “Kishore, you were far too frank in your memoirs to discuss your failures. You shouldn’t have revealed all your failures.” He said that to me. But it’s true, I reveal all my failures. But I have also, one of the themes of my memoirs is that almost all the failures I experienced turned out to be a blessing.

So, for example, when I went from being permanent secretary of the Foreign Ministry of Singapore, so I was like the CEO of the bank. And then I became the branch manager. When I became ambassador to the UN from CEO, I became the branch manager. So in theory, it’s a demotion.

But in my two years in the UN Security Council, I learned far more than I learned in the previous 30 years. Practicing diplomacy in the UN Security Council is like playing football in the World Cup. And when you play football in the World Cup, you’re playing with the best players in the world. And when you’re practicing diplomacy in the UN Security Council, you’re practicing diplomacy with the best diplomats in the world.

So you know, every failure in my life turned out to be a blessing. So I always tell my friends, never be discouraged. But at the same time, I must admit that the person who made me very strong and saved me from giving up when I failed was my mother. Because my mother went through hell bringing us up. I mean, can you imagine debt collectors coming to our house, not having enough money to pay the bills and so on, so forth? She never broke down.

So I told myself, if my mother never broke down, how can I break down? So every time I went down, my mother gave me a safety net.

Related Posts

• President Trump Remarks on US, Israel Attacking Iran (Transcript)
• President Trump on Economy, Energy in Corpus Christi, TX (Transcript) 
• Bulwark Podcast: w/ Susan Glasser on Trump’s State of the Union address (Transcript)
• Douglas Macgregor: US-Iran Diplomacy Fail (Transcript)
• The Truth About Trump’s State of the Union w/ Sen. Bernie Sanders (Transcript)