Transcript of Asia's Rise - How And When: Hans Rosling

Read the full transcript of Swedish physician and academic Hans Rosling’s talk titled “Asia’s Rise — How And When” at TED Talks conference. (Nov 25, 2009)

Listen to the audio version here:

TRANSCRIPT:

A Personal Awakening in Bangalore

HANS ROSLING: Once upon a time, at the age of 24, I was a student at St. John’s Medical College in Bangalore. I was a guest student during one month of a public health course, and that changed my mindset forever. The course was good, but it was not the course content in itself that changed the mindset. It was the brutal realization the first morning that the Indian students were better than me.

You see, I was a study nerd. I loved statistics from a young age, and I studied very much in Sweden. I used to be in the upper quarter of all courses I attended, but in St. John’s, I was in the lower quarter. And the fact was that Indian students studied harder than we did in Sweden. They read the textbook twice or three times or four times. In Sweden, we read it once and then we went partying.

And that, to me, that personal experience was the first time in my life that the mindset I grew up with was changed. And I realized that perhaps the Western world will not continue to dominate the world forever. And I think many of you have the same sort of personal experience. It’s that realization of someone you meet that really meant you changed the ideas about the world. It’s not the statistics, although I try to make it funny.

Predicting Asia’s Economic Rise

And I will now here on stage try to predict when that will happen, that Asia will regain its dominant position as the leading part of the world, as it used to be over thousands of years.

I will do that by trying to predict precisely at what year the average income per person in India and China will reach that of the West. And I don’t mean the whole economy, because to grow an economy of India to the size of the UK, that’s a piece of cake with one million people. But I want to see when will the average pay, the money for each person per month in India and China, when will that have reached that of UK and the United States.

1858: A Watershed Year

But I will start with a historical background, and you can see my map if I get it up here. I will start 1858. 1858 was a year of great technological advancement in the West. That was the year when Queen Victoria was able for the first time to communicate with President Buchanan through the transatlantic telegraphic cable, and they were the first to Twitter transatlantically.

And I’ve been able, through this wonderful Google and Internet, to find the text of the telegram sent back from President Buchanan to Queen Victoria, and it ends like this:

This telegraph is a fantastic instrument to diffuse religion, civilization, liberty and law throughout the world.

Those are nice words. But I got sort of curious of what he meant with liberty and liberty for whom. And we will think about that when we look at the wider picture of the world in 1858, because 1858 was also a watershed year in the history of Asia.

1858 was the year when the courageous uprising against the foreign occupation of India was defeated by the British forces, and India was up to 89 years more of foreign domination. 1858 in China was the victory in the Opium War by the British forces, and that meant that foreigners, as it said in the treaty, was allowed to trade freely in China. It meant paying with opium for Chinese goods.

And 1858 in Japan was the year when Japan had to sign the Harris Treaty and accept trade on favorable conditions for the US, and they were threatened by those black ships there that had been in Tokyo Harbor over the last year. But Japan, in contrast to India and China, maintained its national sovereignty. And let’s see how much difference that can make.

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Visualizing Global Economic History

And I will do that by bringing these bubbles back to a Gapminder graph here, where you can see each bubble is a country, the size of the bubble here is the population. On this axis, as I used to have income per person in comparable dollar, and on that axis I have life expectancy, the health of people. And I also bring an innovation here. I have transformed the laser beam into an ecological, recyclable version here in Green India.

And we will see, you know. Look here, 1858, India was here, China was here, Japan was there, United States and United Kingdom was richer over there, and I will start the world like this. India was not always like this level. Actually, if we go back into the historical record, there was a time hundreds of years ago when the income per person in India and China was even above that of Europe.

But 1850 had already been many, many years of foreign domination, and India had been de-industrialized. And you can see that the countries who were growing their economy was United States and United Kingdom, and they were also, by the end of the century, getting healthier. And Japan was starting to catch up. India was trying down here. Can you see how it starts to move there?

The Impact of National Sovereignty

But really, really, national sovereignty was good for Japan, and Japan is trying to move up there, and in the new century, health is getting better, United Kingdom, United States. But careful now, we are approaching the First World War, and the First World War, you know, we’ll see a lot of deaths and economical problems here. United Kingdom is going down, and now comes the Spanish flu also.

And then, after the First World War, they continue up. Still under foreign domination, and without sovereignty. India and China is down in the corner. Not much has happened. They have grown their population, but not much more. In the 1930s now, you can see that Japan is going to a period of war with lower life expectancy, and the Second World War was really a terrible event, also economically for Japan, but they did recover quite fast afterwards, and we are moving into the new world.

Independence and Economic Development

And 1947, India finally gained its independence, and they could raise the Indian flag, and become a sovereign nation, but in very big difficulties down there. And in 1949, we saw the emergence of the modern China, in a way which surprised the world. And what happened? What happens after independence? You can see that the health started to improve. Children started to go to school, health services were provided, but the economy was…

This was a great leap forward, when China fell down. It was central planning by Mao Zedong. China recovered, and they said, never more stupid central planning, but they went up here, and India was trying to follow, and they were catching up indeed, and both countries had better health, but still a very low economy.

Market Reforms and Economic Growth

And we came to 1978, and Mao Zedong died, and a new guy turned up from the left, and it was Deng Xiaoping coming out here, and he said, doesn’t matter if a cat is white or black, as long as it catch mice. Because catching mice, catching mice, is what the two cats wanted to do. And you can see the two cats being here, China and India, wanting to catch the mices over there, you know.

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And they decided to go, not only for health and education, but also starting to grow the economy. And the market reform was successful there, in 1992, India follows with a market reform, they go quite closely together, and you can see that the similarity with India and China in many ways are greater than the differences with them. And here they march on, and will they catch up? This is the big question today. There they are today.

Understanding Regional Inequalities

Now what does it mean that the average is there? This is the average of China. If I would split China, look here, Shanghai has already caught up. Shanghai is already there. And it’s healthier than the United States. But on the other hand, Guizhou, one of the poorest inland provinces of China is there. And if I split Guizhou into urban and rural, the rural part of Guizhou goes down there. You see this enormous inequity in China in the midst of fast economic growth.

And if I would also look at India, you have another type of inequity actually in India. The geographical, macro-geographical difference is not so big. Uttar Pradesh, the biggest of the states here, is poorer and have a lower health than the rest of India. Kerala is flying on top there, matching United States in health, but not in economy. And here Maharashtra with Mumbai is forging forward. Now in India the big inequities are within the state, rather than between the states. And that’s not the

Bad thing in itself. If you have a lot of inequity, macro-geographical inequities can be more difficult in the long term to deal with, than if it is in the same area where you have a growth centre relatively close to where poor people are living. No, there was one more inequity, look there, United States. Oh, they broke my frame. Washington D.C. went out here. My friends at Gapminder wanted me to show this because there’s a new leader in Washington who is really concerned about the health system and I can understand him because Washington D.C. is so rich over there, but they are not as healthy as Kerala. It’s quite interesting, isn’t it? I can see a business opportunity for Kerala helping fix the health system in the United States.

Now here we have the whole world. You have the legend down there. And when you see the two giant cats here pushing forward, you see that in between them and ahead of them is the whole emerging economies of the world, which Thomas Friedman so correctly called the flat world. You can see that in health and education, large part of the world population is putting forward. But in Africa and other parts, as in rural Guizhou in China, there are still people with low health and very low economy. We have an enormous disparity in the world, but most of the world in the middle are pushing forward very fast.

Projections for Economic Catch-Up

Now, back to my projection. When will it catch up? I have to go back to a very conventional graph. I will show income per person on this axis instead. Poor down here, rich up there. And then time here. From 1858, I start the world and we shall see what will happen with these countries. You see China and the foreign domination actually lowered their income and came down to the Indian level here, whereas UK and United States is getting richer and richer. And of the Second World War, United States is richer than UK. But independence is coming here. Growth is starting. Economic reform grows faster. And with projections from IMF, you can see where you expect them to be in 2014.

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Now the question is, when will the catch-up take place? Look at the United States. Can you see the bubble? The bubbles, not my bubbles, but the financial bubbles. That’s a dot-com bubble. This is the Lehman Brothers doorstep there. You see, it came down there. And it seems as if this is the Northern Rock coming down there, you know. So they don’t seem to go this way, these countries. They seem to go in a more humble growth way, you know. And people interested in growth are turning their eyes towards Asia.

I can compare to Japan. This is Japan coming up. You see, Japan did it like that. We add Japan to it. And there is no doubt that fast catch-up can take place. Can you see here what Japan did? Japan did it like this until full catch-up. And then they follow with the other high-income economies. But the real projections for those ones, I would like to give it like this. Can be worse. Can be better. It’s always difficult to predict, especially about the future. Now a historian tells me it’s even more difficult to predict about the past. But I think I’m in a difficult position here.

Challenges to Growth and Prosperity

Inequalities in China and India, I consider really the big obstacle. Because to bring the entire population into growth and prosperity is what will create a domestic market, what will avoid social instability, and which will make use of the entire capacity of the population. So social investments in health, education, and infrastructure, and electricity is really what is needed in India and China.

You know the climate. We have great international experts within India telling us that the climate is changing and action has to be taken. Otherwise, China and India would be the countries most to suffer from climate change. And I consider India and China the best partners in the world in a good global climate policy. But they aren’t going to pay for what others who have more money have largely created. And I can agree on that.

But what I’m really worried about is war. Will the former rich countries really accept a completely changed world economy and a shift of power away from where it has been the last 50 to 100 to 150 years back to Asia? And will Asia be able to handle that new position of being in charge of being the most mighty and governors of the world? So always avoid war, because that always pushes human beings backwards.

A Future of Equity

Now if this inequality, climate, and war can be avoided, get ready for a world in equity. Because this is what seems to be happening. And that vision that I got as a young student in 1972, that Indians can be much better than Swedes. It’s just about to happen. And it will happen precisely the year 2048 in the later part of the summer, in July, more precisely the 27th of July.

The 27th of July, 2048, is my 100th birthday. And I expect to speak in the first session of the 39th TED India. Get your bookings in time.

Thank you very much. Thank you.

Transcript of Asia’s Rise – How And When: Hans Rosling