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Home » 12 Predictions For The Future of Technology: Vinod Khosla (Transcript)

12 Predictions For The Future of Technology: Vinod Khosla (Transcript)

Here is the full transcript of techno-optimist Vinod Khosla’s talk titled “12 Predictions For The Future of Technology” at TED 2024 conference.

Listen to the audio version here:


I’m a techno-optimist, but techno-optimism should be practiced with both empathy and care. And I’m a believer in what is possible if you do it that way. First, I’m going to give you a word of warning. Experts extrapolate the past. They prevent radical progress because they don’t think nonlinearly. They don’t think of the improbable.

I personally believe only the improbables are important. We just don’t know which improbable is important. Entrepreneurs, on the other hand, with a passion for a vision, they dream the dreams, and then are foolish enough, and we need more foolishness, to try and make those implausible dreams come true.

That’s what entrepreneurship is about, something I’ve loved my whole life. In the 40 years, I’ve been doing innovation and innovation only. This may surprise people.

Lack of Expert-Driven Change

I can’t think of a single large social impact change that was driven by an expert in the field, possibly with the exception of biotechnology, that’s driven by an expert, by a large institution, a large non-founder-led company. Think about it. In 40 years, not one example.

Whether you look at SpaceX, or electric cars or Uber, not one example. The earliest one I could think of was credit cards in the early 70s, when Bank of America put credit on plastic. So what is this plausible world?

Scenarios of the Future

I’ll go through a dozen scenarios that I believe most experts will pooh-pooh. Most expertise enabled by AI will be free. I’m most excited that every human being on the planet can have, 24/7, a free doctor, primary care in a very expansive way.

That every child can have a free tutor in a very available, accessible way, and these will be near free. It doesn’t matter, other expertise whether you’re looking at structural engineers or oncologists, most expertise will be near free.

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