Col. Douglas Macgregor: 2025 Year End Review + 2026 Forecast (Transcript)

Ukraine is the instrument, and when I say instrument, I mean instrument. It is simply the puppet regime and the human capital that is being squandered on the battlefield on behalf of the globalist governments in Europe and Washington that want to destroy Russia.

He puts on the uniform at this point and shows up at a general staff meeting with the senior military leadership as a demonstration that this is now a war for the existence of Russia and the patience that once existed I think, is running out. And that is patience with us and patience with Europe.

You know, I think that President Putin always tries to be polite and he listens carefully to whatever President Trump says. And I think he believes President Trump is quite sincere, as he has said, but he has seen repeatedly that President Trump is unable to deliver on much of anything, that the United States Congress has a mind of its own, that the same people that are pressing for war in the Middle East and pressing against Venezuela are equally interested in destroying Russia.

And those people, whether they’re the major billionaire donors or members of the Senate, it doesn’t make any difference. They seem to wield more influence and power than President Trump. And that’s, I think, the message that President Putin is saying. Thank you very much. We appreciate your kind words. We are now at war for our existence, and we are prepared to take this war all the way to Europe if necessary.

MI6 Involvement and CIA Operations

JUDGE NAPOLITANO: Our friend and colleague Larry Johnson suggested earlier today that MI6 was probably involved in the delivery of or attempted delivery of these 91 drones to President Putin’s house. Would that surprise you?

DOUGLAS MACGREGOR: No, I think MI6 has always been in the lead. The British seem to be most interested in the destruction of Russia, of the various European states. When I say British, I’m not talking about the British people that don’t have any interest whatsoever in going to war with Russia, but its government. So I think that’s true.

But we should not lose sight of the fact that regardless of whatever President Trump says, whatever directives he issues, the CIA is still heavily engaged in Ukraine. They continue to provide valuable intelligence through the NATO military structure, down to the people who are still trying to hold the regime together in Kiev. And I’m sure that we had at least some targeting information that we provided as well.

This is what’s so disappointing. President Trump says one thing on the phone, and as I said, President Putin recognizes that he’s probably sincere, but things continue unchanging. It reminds me of his last year in office in 2020, when he was telling everybody, “I’m withdrawing our forces from Syria.” And people in the chain of command actually told him, “Oh, yes, they’re out,” and they never left.

Reclassification to All-Out War

JUDGE NAPOLITANO: Right. Just before we move to a different topic, the Guardian is reporting of speeches on the floor of the Russian Duma this morning, Tuesday, December 30th, beginning the process of reclassifying. And from what you’ve told me, the wording means a lot to the Russian people and to the military. Reclassifying this from a special military operation to an all-out war.

DOUGLAS MACGREGOR: Yes. You’ll remember a few days ago that President Putin made some remarks at a press conference, and these remarks were very straightforward. It was a warning to our European allies in NATO. If you press this thing and you truly want a war, we Russians are prepared for it, and we’re prepared to destroy you.

Now, the Russians have done a number of things. I was amused yesterday. There was an announcement of another 135,000 draftees. Russia has a selective draft that are moving into the force. But what’s much more important is that somewhere between 650 and 750,000 reservists have been called up. Of that number, it’s expected that three, maybe 400,000 somewhere in that range will be retained on active duty after this initial mobilization.

You have on the ground in Ukraine, what, 750 to 800,000. You add these numbers up and now you’re looking at more than a million men mobilized, ready to fight. And you have them organized along multiple axes from Kherson all the way up to the border with White Russia or Belarus.

Russia is getting ready. They’re taking the statements that may have been made unseriously, very seriously. If you talk to the soldiers on the ground who are rotating in and out of Ukraine, the Russians, my sources tell me, not only is their morale very high, but they’re very well informed. They understand exactly what is happening, and they are making it clear to anyone who asks them that they’re preparing for war against Europe.

That needs to be understood. Doesn’t matter that the British people, the German people, the French people have said, “No, thank you very much.” The fact is their leaders continue to talk stupidly about engaging in a war they have no chance of winning and puts everything at risk in their countries. And the Russians understand that. They’re prepared for it down to the lowest level.

Every Russian soldier that you talk to says the same thing. We are preparing for war with Europe. Ukraine is not a sideshow, but it now shrinks to insignificance next to the larger fight for the very existence of Russia.

NATO’s Viability and American Support

JUDGE NAPOLITANO: Well, how reckless is NATO and how much longer can it survive without vast amounts of American support?

DOUGLAS MACGREGOR: Well, you know, this is a good question. When we say vast amounts of American support, what’s really critical to them is command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance. That’s very important. Their industries, obviously are stretched to produce munitions and rockets and missiles for their weapons systems, but they are capable if they’re willing to devote themselves to the prospect. And that seems to be the case in Germany.

For instance, if they’re willing to borrow endlessly, putting themselves deeper and deeper into debt, operating with very fragile economies as much as we are, they’re pretty powerful. But keep in mind, regardless of what President Trump says, we continue to do everything we possibly can in support of this operation.

Now, we’re not sending as much money as we did. Most of the equipment that we’ve promised won’t show up for years. But the point is, today, what is happening right now, whatever we’ve got, we’ve given, whatever intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance data we can provide for targeting and attacks we give, those things have not changed.

I don’t see that ending unless President Trump gets personally involved, and I don’t think he has. I mean, quite frankly, it’s astonishing to me that this man Ratcliffe is still running the CIA. The CIA seems to be a rogue organization that does pretty much what it wants, anywhere it goes, regardless of what the President says, and that’s huge.

NATO’s Obsolescence

JUDGE NAPOLITANO: Of what value is NATO anymore?

DOUGLAS MACGREGOR: Well, listen, NATO should have gone away back in the early 1990s, Judge. As soon as the Soviet state system collapsed, the Warsaw Pact was dissolved, Soviet forces were pulled out of East Germany, and that was the big concentration that actually posed the greatest threat to the West. It was the group of Soviet forces in Germany.

Once those things happened, once Poland was evacuated, and Poland was always critical as a logistical infrastructure for any offensive operations the Soviets wanted to undertake, it was over. We should have taken the opportunity then and there to begin reducing our commitments to NATO, not in the sense that we’re going to abandon Europe altogether, but recognize the criticality of making the Europeans take responsibility for themselves.

President Trump always understood that. He made that very clear in 2020. He understood the criticality of making the Europeans assume responsibility as their own first responders. It hasn’t happened. It hasn’t happened largely because no one cared what President Trump said or thought. In other words, the war machine backed by the various intelligence agencies and the Congress continue to move in the same direction as it always has.

And anything you hear from Congress demonstrates conclusively. I listen to the commander of Indo-PACOM, whatever the hell that is. I mean, what an abortion? As though we control the Indian Ocean and India. It’s absurd. But nevertheless, he came in there and listening to this man, you would have thought it was 1989. I mean, the thinking has not changed. The machinery, the bureaucracy in Washington has not changed.

I think you have a similar phenomenon in Britain, France, Germany, and sadly, in Poland. And as a result, until those things change, the Russians are going to have to assume the worst and that’s what they’re doing.

The Collapse of American Empire and the Road to War

JUDGE NAPOLITANO: I only heard two members of the United States Congress. No surprise who they are. Senator Rand Paul, Congressman Thomas Massie condemned the efforts by the EU to steal Russian assets from Belgian banks. Thankfully, the Belgian Prime Minister, who understands private property and understands the banking industry, prevented it from happening, but they tried to twist his arm to make it happen. And where was the American Congress saying this is absurd? Just two members spoke out against it.

DOUGLAS MACGREGOR: Well, the Congress and I, unfortunately, I think this is true for the United States government, does not recognize any law higher than themselves, being all the lip service we pay to the so-called rules-based order and international law. It’s all nonsense. International law and the rules are whatever we say they are. Everything is about bullying everyone else to do as we say. And President Trump is caught in the middle of this and I don’t think that’s where he wants to be, but he doesn’t seem to know how to get out of it.

JUDGE NAPOLITANO: He’s also caught in the middle of Israel and Gaza. Colonel, more than 25,000 Gazans were killed, murdered by the IDF in 2025. Doesn’t seem to bother Donald Trump at all.

The Middle East Powder Keg

DOUGLAS MACGREGOR: No, you know, I assume that that’s probably true. I don’t like to think of it as being true. But nevertheless, actions speak louder than words and that would be suggested by his actions. The whole problem with the Gaza peace business is his name is all over it and he is at the center of it now. He likes to be at the center of everything. He likes his name on everything. But this is an enormous failure. It’s not going anywhere.

The region continues to develop in ways that are very dangerous. Right now you have a reviving Ottoman empire in the form of modern Turkey under Erdogan. He has aspirations and ambitions. Mr. Netanyahu is waging a war for Jewish supremacy over the region. Those are his ambitions. These two powers are going to collide and they are going to collide in Syria. They’re also going to collide at sea in the Mediterranean. I don’t think people are paying attention to it.

And the fact that Mr. Trump stands up there and says, “Well, Mr. Erdogan’s my good friend and Bibi Netanyahu is my good friend and I’m very happy with my good friends” is irrelevant. Interests trump warm feelings and affection. That’s all nonsense in international politics. Those two states are on a collision course. And to this you have to add Iran. And he’s made it very clear that war with Iran is coming. I don’t see how else you could interpret the comments that he made. So the bottom line is this is a very ominous situation in the Middle East. You have no end in sight in Ukraine. Where else are we going?

Jonathan Pollard’s Vision for Gaza

JUDGE NAPOLITANO: Ah, well, we attacked the land for the first time, land in Venezuela. But before we get to that, this is very disturbing. This is Jonathan Pollard, an American and Israeli citizen, who’s also, according to our colleagues on this show, the most dangerous spy against the United States in the modern era, whose sentence was commuted by Donald Trump saying, well, I’ll let you hear it. “Israel will own all of Gaza.” Cut number four.

VIDEO CLIP BEGINS:

JONATHAN POLLARD: Our repossession of our biblical land in Gaza will basically set the stage for our future. Why? Because it will show our enemies that if you fight us, we will not only defeat you decisively, but we will take back our land as well, permanently, to make sure that they’re safe and secure going forward. And the only way that’s going to take place is if we have a Jewish Gaza, 100% Jewish Gaza.

As far as President Trump is concerned, look, the man likes winners. There’s no question about it. It’s time we start acting like one. Rather than asking permission to be one, we should simply act like one. And this is why I firmly believe that just as America has a policy of America first, we should have a policy of Yisra’el Rishona, Israel first.

VIDEO CLIP ENDS:

JUDGE NAPOLITANO: Could this represent the attitude of Benjamin Netanyahu, who hugged and kissed him when he got off a plane when Trump commuted in Tel Aviv, when Trump commuted his American sentence?

DOUGLAS MACGREGOR: Oh, undoubtedly. I think he’s speaking for a majority of Israelis. The sad part is that we are not an America first administration. I wish that we were. If we were an America first administration, we would not be involved in the vast numbers of things we are. He’s talking about the extension of the policy of mass murder and expulsion. That should not surprise anybody.

We’ve had a pause. Why are we having a pause? And why is that pause now about to end? We’ve had to have a rebuilding of missile arsenals, missile defense arsenals, munitions and so forth in Israel. The same thing has happened in Iran, which is why we’re now once again on the road to war with Iran. The various parties have largely recovered from the previous 12-day conflict. That’s the truth.

And what he’s saying is not anything about America first. I mean, listen, again, I think we’re an Israel first administration in Washington. I see no evidence for anything that’s remotely America first, because our interests do not drive us into wars all over the world. They simply don’t exist, particularly given our fragile economy. But this is where we are, Judge.

You know, and it’s unfortunate to me that the man continues to retain some sort of American citizenship. I think we’ve reached the point in our history where the question is going to be, are you an American or are you not? He’s not. He’s an Israeli Jew. That’s his identity. We’ve got to start telling the truth. Who are you? What do you believe in and what do you want? And what he’s stating is factual from his standpoint. And they don’t care how many people have to die in the Middle East for them to have their Jewish supremacy over the region. That’s the fact.

The Iran Nuclear Question

JUDGE NAPOLITANO: President Trump claimed last June that the United States “obliterated,” his phrase or his word, all of the Iranian nuclear capability. Secretary of Defense, who calls himself the Secretary of War, used the same word. I guess they’re going to walk that back if we’re preparing to attack Iran with the Israelis. That was probably discussed at Mar-a-Lago yesterday.

DOUGLAS MACGREGOR: Remember that President Trump is a marketing genius. He’s one of the world’s greatest salesmen. Whatever else he is, that’s true. And whatever he does is always great. Whatever discussion he has on whatever phone with whatever leader, it’s always positive. It’s terrific. It’s super. So what was done the last time around was amazingly effective. Anyone who suggested anything else was immediately shouted down and invited to leave the room.

But it wasn’t. It was another temporary ceasefire. The Israelis needed it. The Iranians were willing to go along with it for their own reasons. That temporary ceasefire is at an end. These things will be resolved with violence. That’s the bad news. And we don’t seem to understand that. These things are not questions of an existential nature for us. But they are for Israel and they are for Iran, and increasingly, they are for the Turks.

When you put these groups together, you’re going to get massive killing. It’s inevitable. The question is, what are we doing in it? What do we, how do we benefit? What do we get out of it? Now, let’s be frank. I read just recently that President Trump’s personal wealth has tripled since he took office. I suppose that has something to do with his family, with Witkoff and others, and their children all running around in Qatar and then the Emirates collecting cash. But the American people don’t benefit. There’s nothing in it for us. That’s the problem.

Venezuela: The Next Front

JUDGE NAPOLITANO: It’s a very serious problem. Here’s President Trump yesterday confirming an American attack. He won’t say if it was the CIA or military. And we haven’t heard anything from Secretary Hegseth on this. Confirming an American attack on Venezuela sometime last week. Chris, cut number three.

VIDEO CLIP BEGINS:

UNIDENTIFIED SPEAKER: Can you say anything more about the explosion in Venezuela that you mentioned in radio interview? Did the military do that? Can you share anyone?

DONALD TRUMP: Well, it doesn’t matter, but there was a major explosion in the dock area where they load the boats up with drugs. They load the boats up with drugs. So we hit all the boats and now we hit the area. It’s the implementation area. That’s where they implement and that is no longer around.

VIDEO CLIP ENDS:

JUDGE NAPOLITANO: How significant, in your view, is this? Is this the incipient stages of an invasion?

DOUGLAS MACGREGOR: Well, I don’t know. What we’re going to invade with, 15,000 to 20,000 troops is a drop in the bucket in a country the size of Venezuela. We can’t possibly control much. We’d be hard pressed just to control Caracas with that, let alone strong points along the coast. So I don’t know what the plan is there.

I still think that there’s been heavily, a lot of planning has depended heavily on the implementation, as the president says, of a coup to remove Maduro. That doesn’t seem to have worked. You know, it’s hard to tell. I think the president has put himself in a difficult position. He’s talked about all the things he’s going to do and the terrible price that will be paid and said that whatever Maduro offers, it’s not enough unless Maduro agrees to leave the country. Not sure I see that happening.

Venezuela is part of the larger BRICS process. They haven’t joined it yet, but they’re certainly on the road to that. Which means that the Russians, the Chinese, the Indians, the Iranians, everybody is watching this very carefully because they really see this as an undeclared war by the United States against them. And that’s what’s really dangerous about Venezuela.

The whole drug business has never been taken seriously by anybody. This is all about not just the resources in Venezuela, but halting what appears to be an unstoppable advance by BRICS, by this new alternative financial system to what we have in the West. Our financial system is crumbling. They’re building a new one. Theirs is backed by gold. Ours is backed by hopes and dreams and not much else.

The Decline of Empire

JUDGE NAPOLITANO: Colonel, is the American empire collapsing?

DOUGLAS MACGREGOR: Yeah, I think you’re in the late stage of an empire. And unfortunately, as your financial and economic wherewithal diminishes, it’s historically accurate to suggest that the faltering empire turns to the use of military power to rescue itself or arrest the decline. It’s not going to happen, and it’s a waste of time and it’s counterproductive. But it’s something that leaders, and President Trump is no exception, turn to out of desperation. And I also think he enjoys this. Remember, one of the things that’s very clear with President Trump, he believes that bullying others works.

JUDGE NAPOLITANO: Colonel, I’m going to guess that you are not optimistic for peace in 2026.

DOUGLAS MACGREGOR: No. In fact, I think 2026 is going to blow the doors off of the airliner we call the United States. It’s flying through very, very bad weather, and I don’t know how it ends. But I still think we fail to look at the economy. We don’t look seriously at our financial system.

McKinsey put out an interesting report, talked about globally $600 trillion worth of wealth, and then made the comment that the wealth is not real because it doesn’t rest on a foundation of productivity. That’s particularly true for us. But when you have this kind of inflated market, inflated assets, that benefits the top 1% enormously. And that’s the problem.

The top 1%, much like President Trump, is increasing their wealth dramatically with each passing day. The rest of the population is on the downhill slide into poverty or worse. I think that’s where we’re headed. And nobody seems to want to address that. Instead, we sort of tell ourselves fantasy stories. “Oh, trillions are pouring into the country. Everything is coming up roses. Everything’s getting better.” But Americans aren’t stupid. They don’t see that. And none of the military operations that we’re engaged in are going to help us at all.

Closing Remarks

JUDGE NAPOLITANO: Colonel, thank you very much for your time this morning. We both thought we’d be silent for 10 days, but the two of us agreed my audience needed to hear you one more time. Thank you very much for your thoughts on all of these subjects. Thanks for everything you and I have done together, including the talks we gave together in Virginia and in Texas this past year. I hope we can do it all again.

I think you know that Judging Freedom crossed the 100 million view mark for the second time, second consecutive year. And you are the superstar. Thank you very much for all your time, all of your analysis, and such a pleasure, professional and personal pleasure to be able to pick your brain. Enjoy what remains of the holiday. We look forward to seeing you next week.

DOUGLAS MACGREGOR: Thank you, Judge. Happy New Year.

JUDGE NAPOLITANO: Happy New Year to you and Happy New Year to everyone watching us. Thank you at an enormous audience this morning. Thank you very much for tuning in tomorrow at 10 o’clock in the morning on New Year’s Eve. All you can get of Scott Ritter, eight hours of Scott Ritter starting at 10 o’clock Eastern Time, New Year’s Eve right here. Judge Napolitano for Judging Freedom.

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