Larry Johnson: What to Expect From Putin-Trump Meeting in Alaska (Transcript)

I mean, he’s complete reversal of positions, complete contradictions of what he said.

And actually, I think Vladimir Putin understands this. He’s had three prior meetings back in the past. The only way I know that he’s had three different meetings with Trump where they’re sitting side by side, shaking hands, is I can show you three different graphs where Trump and Putin have on different ties, three different kinds of ties. So they’ve had at least those three different meetings.

What Putin knows from meeting Trump in person is that the true Trump in person is a completely different personality than this character that Trump portrays on television, this bombastic bully who’s constantly making threats and making insulting comments right and left. Sometimes profanity laced. But in person, Trump is an insecure guy and he wants to be liked. And so he’s going to be obsequious, do everything he can to make sure you’re comfortable. Because he doesn’t really like to fire people. He’s terrible at hiring, terrible at firing.

And so Putin knows that when he’s one on one with Trump, or at least in the past, he could actually have a discussion with him. And Trump listens and asks questions. But it remains to be seen who’s really pulling the strings here, because we’ve had a series of events that I don’t believe were orchestrated by Donald Trump.

Recent Provocative Actions

Starting with the redeployment of the B61-12 nuclear gravity bombs to Lakenheath in the UK as well as to at least five of the NATO bases in Europe that was done middle of July. At the same time, General Chris Donahue, clearly, with permission from above, began talking about invading Kaliningrad, knowing that such talk would be a direct provocation to Russia.

Then Trump openly talking about deploying nuclear submarines off the coast of Russia, even though routinely the US Navy deploys nuclear submarines off the coast of Russia or in the North Atlantic and in the Pacific. But that was followed then by this. I call it the charade last Friday of these Trump hosting peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan. This was a direct shot at Russia. And Russia certainly has to take it into consideration that this is another move by the United States in NATO to intervene in the Caucasus to create a threat to Russia and to Iran, for that fact, to disrupt any Iranian Russian cooperation.

So I’d step back and turn a question around to you, Glenn. Can you point to me one positive action that Donald Trump has taken in the last six months towards Russia that would indicate conciliation, a desire for peace or a desire for friendship? Other than by saying, “let’s have talks,” I can’t think of one.

The Bare Minimum of Dialogue

GLENN DIESEN: I tend to applaud him for at least talking to the Russians. I mean, this seems like a bare minimum, but this is what none of the NATO countries have done for the past three and a half years. So that’s one thing. But you are correct, though, the substance isn’t really there.

And I guess this is part of the concern of many, because it’s not even clear if he understands the conflict, because when he took power, he was talking about restoring neutrality for Ukraine. Then suddenly he, which is. And even called it a Biden war. He still does that, but it still recognizes it’s a conflict between NATO and Russia. Then it becomes a bilateral conflict between Russia and Ukraine only where he gets to play the mediator. And now he’s talking about territories, territorial swaps. But do you think he understands this conflict? Because there seems to be an excessive focus on these territories.

The Real Nature of the Conflict

LARRY JOHNSON: No, actually, I don’t think he understands it, and I don’t think it’s entirely his fault. Based upon an article that Seymour Hersh wrote last week in which Sy was quoting a senior intelligence official and a senior intelligence official used language describing this conflict between Russia and Ukraine as a battle is a conflict over territory. And it’s like, so if the CIA or DIA, whoever the senior intelligence official was, if they genuinely are conveying that this is a territorial dispute, then it shows they don’t even begin to understand this has nothing to do with territory. It has everything to do with NATO expansion.

So the fact that Trump is being told that, also the same intelligence official had asserted that Russia had suffered 2 million casualties and that, again, that’s what Trump is saying. So Trump is being told things by the intelligence community, by the CIA, through Ratcliffe, that are simply not true. It’s unclear why Tulsi Gabbard hasn’t intervened to correct the record, but clearly Trump is operating under these false premises.

So until that’s corrected, and maybe Putin’s hoping that he can get Trump straightened out now, I can see a deal coming out of Friday. One possibility where Vladimir Putin will inform Donald Trump. “Look, I have no constitutional authority to do anything with the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia or Crimea, because those are all incorporated into the Federal Republic of Russia as states, if you will. And that’s constitutional. I can’t change that. I have no power over that.”

A Possible Deal Structure

“However, we will be willing to withdraw our forces from Dnipropetrovsk and from Sumy and from Kharkiv because we have not made yet.” And he’ll emphasize yet “a legal claim on those oblasts and on the condition that Ukraine as well withdraw its forces and will create that as a buffer zone.”

So I could see that being an agreement they could come to, but it would be conditional upon Ukraine accepting it, and I don’t see Ukraine accepting it. At which point, in theory, that would leave Trump free to say, “well, I put the agreement out there. These Ukrainians are refusing to accept the agreement” and walk away. That’s what he should do. But candidly, I don’t think he’ll do that. He’ll mealy mouth around and this war is going to come to a crashing halt by a Russian victory on the battlefield.

Putin’s Likely Demands

GLENN DIESEN: Do you think this will be the demands from Putin, though? Because they must. I guess it’s difficult to prepare for this meeting if they only listen to the statements of Trump, given how much it shifts back and forth. But for the Russians, they’ve been fairly consistent all along. Now, I always assume that they tend to suggest everything is written in stone. I often assume it’s more of a hard bargaining and that they might in some areas have some flexibility. But of course, they’re also eager to get this war over with, but they don’t want to throw away their leverage. So what do you think Putin will put in front of Trump in terms of an offer to end the war?

Russia’s Hardened Position Since Istanbul 2

LARRY JOHNSON: Yeah. And I’ve been fortunate to have had conversations with both Sergei Lavrov and the number two guy in the Foreign Ministry, Sergei Ryabkov. And then I’ve listened carefully to the Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova. I’ve listened to Kremlin spokesman Peskov. I’ve listened to other members of let’s call them Putin insiders and Vladimir Putin as well.

If anything, Russia’s position has hardened since Putin’s first presentation of let’s call it “Istanbul 2.” That was in June 14th of 2024. And how it’s hardened in this way: that in June 2024 they were simply asking that the five former Ukrainian oblasts that are now part of the Russian Federation, that they be officially recognized as part of the Russian nation, as part of the Russian Federation, that Ukraine must reject and not have any further doings with NATO, that NATO advisors must be pulled out, no more sharing of intelligence and military equipment, and that Ukraine withdraw all of its forces from those five oblasts.

I see now that Putin’s going to come in with a little tougher demand than that, and he will insist as well that the Ukrainians withdraw from Dnipropetrovsk, from Sumy Potava and from Kharkiv. And the Russians have made it clear that if Ukraine does not accept this deal, then the next deal will be Russia’s taking all of those. Russia will run elections in each of those oblasts, giving them the chance to declare whether they want to become part of Russia or not. And when that vote takes place, they will be adopted in.

What’s interesting is to note that since the very early days of the special military operation in 2022, Russia has maintained control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Now it’s been surrounded by Ukrainian forces, yet those Ukrainian forces have not broken through, attacked or tried to take that power plant back. So it’s shown the ability of Russia to be able to sustain its force even that far away.

Well, once this line collapses in Donetsk and Russia has full control then of Luhansk, Donetsk, there’s nothing that Ukraine can do to stop them. And so it’s just this will then be a matter of what the Russians have said all along. Ukraine can deal now and still maintain some access to the Black Sea, still maintain control over Odessa, still maintain control over Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Potava and even Kharkiv.

But if they don’t and if they refuse to accept what’s on the table, Russia is going to press forward militarily, and Russia has the full capability to do that. That’s where Putin’s holding the cards on this. Trump doesn’t hold. As Trump said to Zelensky at the end of February, “You don’t have any trump cards.” Well, guess what, Donald, just because your main name, Trump, doesn’t mean you have trump cards. You have none.

Behind-the-Scenes Negotiations

GLENN DIESEN: Well, this is the strategy which is not clear. It appears that he will meet Putin and then they can hash out some deal. But again, it could be that there has been something prepared in advance, because if I would come to Trump’s defense, I would argue that he has a lot of enemies or opponents at home. I mean, back in February when they tried to suggest there can’t be any more NATO expansion, he said all the right things from day one. Then there was a big backlash.

So one would assume that he has to appease the hawks within Washington, but also the Europeans and Zelensky. So, again, giving him the benefit of the doubt, is it possible that some negotiations has been done behind the scenes and there’s actually something on the table?

LARRY JOHNSON: Yeah. Yeah, actually there is. You know, as you know, Glenn, normally in these kinds of summits, there are the diplomatic Sherpas, named after the rugged Nepalese who carry the backpacks and gear of a bunch of fat, pampered Westerners up the Himalayas towards Mount Everest. The Sherpas do all the actual work. They strap people in. They make sure that the ropes are secured, that the ladders for crossing ravines are in place. They do everything. They prep the groundwork. That’s exactly what diplomatic Sherpas do.

And there was some hint from Marco Rubio two weeks ago that there was, in fact, some discussions going on with Russian officials. Didn’t specify at what level, didn’t specify who was doing the talking, but clearly there was talking. So hopefully those discussions have been going on.

Potential Areas for Cooperation

Now, there are some other agreements that Trump could make as a sign of good faith to Russia that they’re serious about putting this back on the right path. So, for example, fully normalizing diplomatic relations by reopening the Russian consulates in the United States that have been closed previously, returning Russian property that was seized by Barack Obama when he was president, freeing the funds that had been seized in Europe that belong to Russia, the $300 billion, reestablishing direct flights to the United States, committing to exploring the construction of a bridge or tunnel between Alaska and Russia that would connect the two countries, coming up with agreements on further cooperation with regards to the space station that had been put on hold, restarting arms control agreements.

So what we’re looking at. And there’s no lack of things to talk about, whether it’s working together in the Arctic or developing commercial economic projects. So, again, we’re going to find out if Trump is actually serious. The Russians are serious. The Russians, actually, they can multitask. They can do a variety of things. They’re going to work on this Ukraine problem in defeating NATO regardless of what Trump says, regardless of his decision.

However, they’d be happy to work with the United States on these other areas, and some of them may be very tempting for Donald Trump to consider. So we’ll have to wait and see.

GLENN DIESEN: I do get the impression that desire to restore bilateral relations is genuine, but I think there’s also recognition that all of this common interest, different areas to work on, all of this is hostage to the Ukraine war, which is a good reason to get it over with. Yeah, I guess my last question was about Alaska, though. Why do you think Alaska is the venue?

Why Alaska as the Meeting Venue

LARRY JOHNSON: Well, that’s where I come back to this possibility of proposing at least they’ll agree to start working on a project to build a tunnel and or bridge from Alaska to Russia, Russia to Alaska, connecting the two countries. Because otherwise there’s, I guess the only other reason to do it that way was to avoid having. If they would have, Putin couldn’t fly west, but he can fly east. He could have flown to the south. But Trump, for some reason, wasn’t interested in doing the United Arab Emirates or Qatar or Saudi Arabia.

So the Alaska venue offers a possibility that you could feature this project, because I know that one of Dmitriev, I believe, on the Russian side has been quite an advocate, a proponent of that kind of project. And he’s been in close talks with Witkoff. And so this is the kind of big, grandiose project that actually could have Trump interested.

The problem is Trump keeps sending verbal messages that contradict it, that imply that he’s going to blow the talks up or he’s going to try to bully Putin. But again, I think it’s just idle talk on his part. We’ve seen that over and over and over, and we’ll see if he continues with that pattern.

Trump’s Limited Options for Pressuring Russia

GLENN DIESEN: Yeah, just on that the continued threats is making against Russia, not just last week, but the new ones which recently came out. What actually can Trump do now in terms of punishing Russia, as he says, if they do not fall in line? Because this would have been much more convincing two years or three years ago. But again, what capabilities are actually left?

I thought this was a key theme in why there was a need to make a peace. That is, the Russians are advancing fast, Ukraine is collapsing, and NATO doesn’t really have any more weapons to send. So what are the real threats? He can actually, I mean, the sanctions is one thing, but it does appear that the Indians and Chinese are undeterred. So what is left here though?

LARRY JOHNSON: Well, the reality is nothing. So there was a time where the United States and Russia had a fairly robust trade relationship, but now, after three and a half years of sanctions, that’s been stripped to bare minimum. At this point, the United States needs the nitrogen that is used for fertilizer and the enriched uranium which is used to power nuclear reactors. The United States absolutely needs that. There’s not a single thing coming from the United States that Russia needs. Russia would like to have the convenience of being able to have normal economic relations, but they don’t need that. They’d like that, but that’s a different thing.

And as far as Washington’s threat to sanction India and China with bone crushing sanctions, what Trump and his team failed to comprehend and understand is that with respect to China, the rare earth minerals and the magnets are critical items to US Industry, what’s left of it, as well as to the military industrial complex. And China’s put a hold on those. And notice Trump keeps postponing the tariffs another 90 days or “we’re going to really crack down on you, but we give you three more months.”

And in India, India, even though they get a lot, India gets a lot of the pharmaceuticals out of China, when it’s producing pharma, the actual, what are called APIs, those come predominantly out of India to the US manufacturers. So India’s actually got some leverage there that the United States has actually had to do a carve out on.

The Consequences of Poorly Thought-Out Policies

And I just note in passing that there is no thinking going into Trump’s tariff policies and punishing other countries. They impose tariffs on Switzerland, who I was informed the other day by a Swiss citizen that Switzerland accounts for 93% of all of the insulin diabetics drugs that go into the United States. So we’re going, the United States being the bunch of fat bastards that we are with all of our junk food and overweight population have become a diabetes insane asylum. And now we’re cutting ourselves off from the supplier of the diabetes medicine.

That’s what I’m saying. This doesn’t make, these guys are not thinking. They’re not thinking strategically. They’re not thinking in terms of “how do I get leverage over these other people.” They are simply thinking on one dimension emotionally. And then when the next problem comes up, they have to react to that. So I think come Friday, we’re going to see Trump reacting to something that he didn’t quite expect.

Europe’s Inability to Face Reality

GLENN DIESEN: Well, the not thinking part I think we share on this side of the Atlantic. I see Merz just giving a speech out of Germany saying the same thing that, well, any talk will have to be started off with a 30 day ceasefire.

LARRY JOHNSON: Yeah.

GLENN DIESEN: Which is just obvious. Under no circumstance would that happen. The Russians wouldn’t give up any leverage when they know that the only reason you have a ceasefire is to prepare the front lines more in your own advantage. It’s just, I don’t know, it’s very frustrating that I think we created an environment in Europe where recognizing the reality would be somehow treasonous, that you can’t recognize that, well, did the Russians beat us at this? You can’t recognize we contributed to the conflict.

All of this is seen as taking the side of the Russians and you’re purged immediately. So they have to repeat these things, which they know isn’t going to work. It’s very frustrating to watch because we created an environment where our basic national interests, security and reality itself all falls under this umbrella of being pro Russian. So we can’t even state the obvious.

The Emperor’s New Clothes

LARRY JOHNSON: I think it was actually a historian and not Yogi Berra. Yogi Berra was this New York Yankees baseball catcher notorious for his sayings. And he said, “It’s deja vu all over again.” And I think maybe that was created by a historian, because what you’re watching is, was it Hans Christian Andersen who did the fairy tale of the King with no Clothes? Because it was to tell a story of how a population would allow complete confabulation and deception to go on. And it was left up to the child or another telling to the story, a prophet to rise up and try to tell them they’re wrong and they refused to accept the truth.

Well, here we are again. We are repeating that kind of history and only now we get to be conscious of it as we watch it unfold. Because I shake my head when I’m watching Donald Trump talk and the things, saying some of the ridiculous things that he is, because they are so divorced from reality and that people around him are nodding their heads going, “Baby, you tell them, Donald. That’s amen, brother.” It’s frightening.

GLENN DIESEN: This is what happens when society becomes too polarized, either or. Well, you hate the opponents, but you’re also compelled to defend anything that your own side says. So it doesn’t really matter what Trump says. His opponents will hate him anyways what he says. And the people who support him, they will make excuses for whatever he says. So it’s not great accountability. But, yeah, here we are. So, yes, thanks again for all your time and letting me pick your brain.

LARRY JOHNSON: Well, it’s slim pickings, right? Thanks, Glenn. Always a pleasure.

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