Nathan Kundtz – TRANSCRIPT
So this morning, I’d like to talk to you about antennas. Cue enthusiasm. Yeah. There you go. And you’re right to be enthusiastic, because it turns out — If you don’t learn anything other than that in this talk, then we’ve won. OK, so good job. You’re right to be enthusiastic, because these are so critical in how we connect and in particular the antennas that I’m designing right now will change the way the world communicates.
But before I get to that, I want to start by asking you a question: How would you feel if I asked you to give up your phone for a week? Good, how about a month? Slightly less applause. For a lot of us, that gives us stress, right? Give up my phone? I use that constantly. In fact, I’m ignoring you right now. You want to talk about antennas? When we asked people this more broadly, it turns out that a lot of people would actually rather work another day every week or even give up their vacation rather than give up their phones. It’s true. We’re so intimately connected to those phones, and it’s not just us, people. It’s projected that by 2030, we’ll have 30 billion connected devices around the planet. 30 billion — that’s four for every man, woman and child on the Earth.
But what I want to talk about today is the fact that there are some problems and limitations in the networks that we actually use to connect those devices. The first one I think you’re probably familiar with, which is that they only work if you’re in a coverage area. That’s great if you’re here in Seattle, but it turns out only about 20 percent of the Earth’s landmass is covered by broadband networks. And so if you’re outside of those networks, or if you’re on a plane or a boat, you’re out of luck. You don’t have that connectivity, and you lose all the things that it brings to our lives. But the limitations don’t stop there. Actually, inside of that twenty percent, we have another problem, called “congestion.” And congestion is when all these devices start to compete for the same spectrum.
Now you might be familiar with “spectrum,” but if you’re not, spectrum is kind of like real estate, but for communications. We use spectrum to actually pass data, and the more that you have, the more data you can pass. Just like land, it’s a shared asset, and in our country, we have the FCC allocate that spectrum to companies that then turn around and build our mobile networks. And here’s the thing: they don’t have enough. Recently, the cost of that spectrum, as it gets allocated and auctioned off, has skyrocketed. Just last year, there was an auction for an additional three percent, just an incremental change in the capacity of our networks. The price tag was 36 billion dollars. 36 billion dollars — that’s before we build a single cell tower, that’s before we dig a single trench or even sell a phone. The prices are astronomical, and they limit what we can do.
But there’s a solution. It turns out that we can solve both the coverage and the capacity problems if we go to space. OK, we don’t have to go to space … even if you might want to. We can send satellites. Now satellites are actually really exciting, even though we don’t notice them all the time in our daily lives. For one thing, nothing can beat a satellite in terms of coverage. A single satellite can cover an entire continent with high-capacity data. Even two. And with three, you can actually blanket the entire planet with coverage. And just for context here: some of you may be aware, but SpaceX just announced that they want to build around 4,000 of these babies and put them around the Earth. Imagine what you can do with 4,000. These satellites can solve our problems. They really can. They can build this network, they can give us access to this capacity. And one of the reasons is because of the amount of spectrum that’s allocated to them.
It turns out that if you do the math, it’s actually about 5,000 times more spectrum available to satellites than to our terrestrial networks today. And to give you some context for that, the reason is because when we use cellular networks, we’re using the same spectrum that we used for televisions when they had rabbit ears, for those of you who remember that. And when we use satellites, we’re using the same spectrum that we use for DIRECTV, but we can use it 300 times across the sky. 300 satellites that are all broadcasting that gigabit-per-second type of connectivity. But — and there’s a big “but” — to access that, you need a dish. We’re back to antennas. I told you antennas are cool. That’s right — so you need a dish.