Scott Ritter: Inside Russia’s Mindset: How the Kremlin Sees This War (Transcript)

Vance. J.D. Vance is a Marine Corps veteran of the war in Iraq. His fellow Marines were killed by Jolani’s compatriots. And Jolani just deserves a bullet in the head, not a handshake. I’m just sorry. The man’s a head chopper. He’s an al-Qaeda terrorist and I’m not willing to forgive.

JUDGE NAPOLITANO: Well, I can’t say that I blame you. I mean, your colleagues were in the line of fire of him and the thugs that were subordinate to him. Before he saw President Trump, he visited President Putin. What would they have been negotiating again?

SCOTT RITTER: Russia’s playing the same geopolitical game that we’re playing right now, maneuvering. Russia has two major bases in Syria and several other minor bases. And I believe Russia wants to retain these bases so that they can retain control over a very strategic, critical area.

They don’t want to yield the space to Turkey. And they also see their presence as a continued sort of playing a blocking role against Israeli and American expansion. So Jolani’s playing both sides of the game here.

The Netanyahu Rape Scandal

JUDGE NAPOLITANO: To go back to Israel for just a moment, how bad off is Netanyahu politically as a consequence of the rape, prison rape scandal, or does that help him politically with the Israeli public?

SCOTT RITTER: Sadly, I think it helps him. I mean, these rapists are being lauded as heroes. Literal rapists are being lauded as heroes in Israel, treated as national heroes. This further solidifies Israel’s policy of dehumanizing the Palestinians.

I mean, if your policy is you get to rape these people no matter what because they’re Palestinians, then what’s that say about you? So there they are. These guys are treated as heroes. They all belong in jail. They belong imprisoned for life for what they’ve done. Instead they’re being hugged and greeted as if they’ve done something fantastic.

JUDGE NAPOLITANO: This is actually going on in the courtroom where they were appearing. I don’t know what’s going to happen to them since, as you know, the person prosecuting them has been arrested for revealing a tape that they made of themselves raping this person.

So we have a country that legalizes murder, theft and rape if the victims are Palestinian. How could such a country possibly be accepted on the international stage? Or does nobody accept it except the United States?

SCOTT RITTER: I think you’re seeing, for instance, Kazakhstan, even though it’s recognized Israel since 1992, Kazakhstan recently was strong-armed by Donald Trump into signing up to the Abraham Accords. And I think you’re seeing the United States applying diplomatic pressure to try and get nations to rehabilitate Israel. And so I just think you’re going to see a lot of people holding their nose and going along with this.

The Status of the War in Ukraine

JUDGE NAPOLITANO: Wow. Moving over to Russia, Scotty, where you are now, what is your current thinking about the status of the war, the condition of the Ukrainian military and the advancement of the Russian troops?

SCOTT RITTER: Russia’s winning. I mean, this is plain and simple. I don’t even think the Ukrainians dispute this anymore. In the Pokrovsk pocket they’ve surrounded several brigades. Two of them, the 25th and I think the 92nd, are some of Ukraine’s most elite brigades. I think the 37th is also being surrounded.

These are their NATO-trained brigades, the well-equipped brigades. Not a single one of these men is going to come out of there alive. They’re either going to be killed or captured. And that’s just the reality.

The Azov brigade, the Nazi brigade, has been surrounded in Kupyansk. They’re all going to die. I spoke to Russian commanders who were right there, and they said there will not be a single Azov prisoner taken. They will all be killed. So this is the reality.

Ukraine’s losing its best shock troops. They’re going to die or be captured. There’s no escape for them. None whatsoever. And this is on top of thousands of other Ukrainian soldiers who are surrounded. And this situation is just going to repeat itself.

There’s additional cauldrons being formed right now as the Russians attack and outflank the strong points. They’ll surround them. The Ukrainians have no ability to reinforce, no ability to launch concerted counterattacks. And when you lose these brigades, they’re not going to be withdrawn. So when you lose them, that giant hole will be ripped in the Ukrainian line.

And from Pokrovsk, you basically got flat farmland all the way to the Dnieper River. So we’re getting to the end game state here.

Will Zelensky Flee Ukraine?

JUDGE NAPOLITANO: So one of our very reliable sources reported to me this morning, and I mentioned it to you before we came on air, rumors in Eastern Europe—the source is in Eastern Europe—that President Zelensky will flee to Greece this weekend. The Kyiv Independent newspaper just announced President Zelensky to visit Greece this weekend to sign an energy deal. Would it be realistic to expect that he visits Greece and doesn’t come home?

SCOTT RITTER: It’s possible. I mean, what we’re looking at is political collapse and societal collapse. The Russian counteroffensive—because remember, Russia didn’t start the energy war, Ukraine did. Ukraine with their drone attacks against Russian oil refining capability.

I just had a fascinating interview with a man who is responsible for energy security. And we had a long discussion about the things that Russia is doing to enhance security at their refineries. He said, first of all, Russia is a modern state that does oil refinery. He said, “Yeah, they hit us, they do damage, we repair it instantaneously. None of these refineries are offline. They’re all up and running, they’re all working.”

There’s no gas lines in Russia. This Western fiction that somehow the Russian economy is being harmed—no. The refinery in question shuts down the portions that were hit. There are spare parts right there. They come in, they replace them, it’s back up and running. And now they’re putting in counter-drone capabilities, et cetera.

So what the Ukrainians are doing to the Russians is nothing. The Russians, meanwhile, have shut down nearly the totality of Ukraine’s ability to generate electricity. This means that entire cities, entire regions are dark, and they’re not going to get their lights on. And it’s getting cold. Trust me. Outside it’s very cold.

This is going to create huge political pressure on Zelensky. I mean, it already has, but it’s even going to get worse because there’s going to be no response to his government. You couple that with the corruption that’s taking place—suddenly the Ukrainian government has to admit, “Oh, yes, there is corruption, but hey, because we found it and we’re talking about it, that means we’re a functioning democracy.”

It’s not. This is a society in freefall. And the man in charge, Zelensky, he can’t survive this. So it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he went to Greece and stayed there.

Corruption in the Ukrainian Government

JUDGE NAPOLITANO: The energy minister and the justice minister, the equivalent of our Secretary of Energy and our Attorney General, were ordered to resign by Zelensky because he caught them with their hands in the till. I guess when you resign from a position like that and your hand is in the till, you get to keep what your hands are on.

SCOTT RITTER: Yeah, it’s like one of those—you know how you went in that booth and they spin the dollars around you and you get to grab all the dollars, and then when they stop doing it, whatever you got, you got to keep. That’s how it is.

Look, everybody there is corrupt. There’s not a single person in Zelensky’s cabinet who isn’t taking hundreds of millions of dollars. The thing is, you’re supposed to do it, not get caught. There’s ways that you can do this, ways you can funnel the money out.

These guys just got greedy and went for the extra hundred million because there’s so much money flowing in right now. When all these European nations start writing these blank checks and pouring in these hundreds of millions of euros, et cetera, that money’s not going to where it needs to go. That money is going into the pockets of these corrupt individuals, all of whom know that it’s over right now.

And so what they’re doing is stealing as much money as they can, trying to get it out of the country so that they have a golden parachute that enables them to fly away when the walls come tumbling down.

The Fate of NATO Military Hardware

JUDGE NAPOLITANO: If the Russian—or excuse me—as the Ukrainian military is collapsing, what becomes of the military hardware that NATO countries are buying from United States manufacturers and are being shipped to Ukraine? Or is that a myth? Are they not actually buying it? Are they not paying for it? Is the equipment not making its way to Ukraine? Is the President of the United States misleading people on this?

SCOTT RITTER: Well, first of all, the vast majority of the equipment in question that’s being purchased is being purchased on long time frame delivery. So you’re not going to get that. Stuff’s not being delivered now. In fact, most of it’s not going to be delivered for another year, two years, three years. And so the money’s been spent up front for orders that will never be fulfilled because Ukraine won’t be around.

Equipment that is going in—for instance, the Germans have provided some Patriots. That’s because Germany’s made the decision to give up its own equipment and then backfill with the orders that have been placed. So Germany is going to have gaps now with that Patriot defense system. At a time when Europe is screaming about Russian drones, Russian drones, Germany just gave up its ability to defend itself because they’re helping the Ukrainians.

But the bottom line is it doesn’t matter. All NATO equipment on Ukrainian soil will either have to be withdrawn or it’s going to be destroyed or captured by the Russians.

Russian Public Attitudes Toward the War

JUDGE NAPOLITANO: Wow. What is your sense of the attitude of the Russian people? I mean, you’ve been in the past week, as I understand it, in Moscow and St. Petersburg—and you can tell us, you’ve probably been elsewhere as well. Has the war, now four years old, changed Russian attitudes at all about the war or about their government, for better or for worse?

Russia’s Unity Behind Putin

SCOTT RITTER: Look, contrary to what other people say, I don’t fly into Russia and I’m not wined and dined by RT and I don’t hang out with fat retired military leaders. I hang out with the people of Russia. I hang out with the real people.

I just had dinner with a drone commander who came from the front. We had a very long and, I mean, you know, real conversation about the state of war. I just had meetings today with frontline commanders and people who support them, the support network of the mobilized soldiers when they go forward.

The wives and the families here form these volunteer groups that are providing them with food and all the care packages they sew up. The fact is I’m wearing one right now that was given to me by one of the ladies, you know, sewing for victory. They sew these sweaters to send to the troops in wintertime so they can stay warm. It’s a supplement to the uniform items.

Russia is 100% united behind the president to achieve victory in this war. This is from the top to the bottom. I don’t know who the hell Doctorow is having dinner with, but they don’t reflect anything near the reality. And I’ll tell you what, Doctorow’s not having dinner with the real people of Russia. If he’s welcome, come back to Russia and I’ll take him and I’ll show him the real people of Russia, not the elites.

The real people of Russia, the salt of the earth. They are 100% behind Vladimir Putin and the concept of they want peace, but they always say first victory. And when they say victory, they mean total victory. None of this compromise stuff.

JUDGE NAPOLITANO: They’re probably going to get total victory pretty soon. In light of the observations that you have made, is there any dichotomy between the sort of liberalizing wishes of the Russian Foreign Ministry and more traditional attitudes of the FSB, the intelligence services?

No Gap Between Russian Agencies

SCOTT RITTER: I don’t see any liberalizing attitudes of the Foreign Ministry. I’ve seen Sergei Lavrov take very, you know, make very definitive statements about the outcome of this war and what’s required. I mean, the Foreign Ministry, Russia in general, including their intelligence services, they believe in a harmonious relationship with the world.

They’re not out there trying to cause problems, to try and disrupt things. They want harmony because to them, that means stability, and stability means predictability, and that’s good for Russia. They’re not trying to be the global hegemon.

You know, we in the west look at Russia, we mirror image ourselves onto them. What we do is we say, well, if we were in Russia’s position, what would we do? And of course, what we would do is seek to take advantage of everything to try and become number one. Russia’s not trying to be number one. Russia’s just trying to live in peace.

And so there’s no gap at all between the FSB, the SVR, the Foreign Intelligence Service, the GRU, Military Intelligence, and the Foreign Ministry. They all work for the same man. That man’s name is Vladimir Putin, and he’s the one calling the shots, no one else.

JUDGE NAPOLITANO: Is there any pressure on President Putin from either the elites around him or the intelligence community or senior military staff to end the war quickly, or is it about to end soon?

Russia’s Collegial Decision-Making Process

SCOTT RITTER: You know, my understanding is that the Russian government operates in a collegial fashion. And that means that Vladimir Putin will summon his various committees, various staffs, where they will have a discussion. He will ask questions, and they will provide him with answers, and he will ask questions to their answers, and then they will discuss options and he’ll ask them for their opinions, and they will say, this is what we want. This is what we want. This is what we think is going to happen.

He’ll ask questions back. And from that, a decision is made. And then once that decision is made, everybody is on board. There’s no dissenting. Nobody’s going out and talking to the Washington Post, you know, like happens here in the United States where they leak information.

In Russia, there’s a collegial process where everybody’s voice gets heard. Everybody’s voice gets heard. And every agency has a different angle here. And some people would want things to go faster here. Other people say, well, we can’t go that fast. This needs to happen. The Foreign Ministry will say, you know, we can’t get ahead of diplomacy. The energy people will say, you know, we can only fund to a certain level over a certain period of time.

And all of this is taken into account collegially. And then at the end of the day, the President will make a decision. Once that decision is made, there is no dissent. That’s what people need to say. I don’t understand anybody who pretends to know something about Russia to believe that there is active dissent inside the Russian government.

Once this collegial process has been done, people can, you know, decisions are reviewed, coming constantly, as any good leadership would do. And in that review, people can revise their opinion or come back and say, you know, as I briefed last time, I still believe this, that, and the other thing.

So there’s opportunities for what you’re calling dissent to be aired, but there’s none of this whispering behind the back, seething under. It doesn’t exist. Not at all. You know, if you want to find five old, embittered, pro-Navalny people and have dinner with them, feel free to do it. But that’s not Russia. It’s not even close to what the reality of Russia is.

JUDGE NAPOLITANO: Tell us what you’re doing in Russia. I know you were in Moscow. I saw you on television in Belarus, and I believe you’re now in St. Petersburg.

Promoting Nuclear Disarmament

SCOTT RITTER: Well, I’m here to promote the idea of nuclear disarmament, arms control, to try and stop this mad rush to nuclear war. Helping facilitate that, I had my book, “Highway to Hell,” translated in Russian. It’s published by a Russian publisher. And so I’m here also doing the book launch.

So I use the book launch as an opportunity to discuss the issues of the book of the arms race, the danger of nuclear weapons, the breakdown of diplomacy, and the absolute necessity for a revival of arms control. And so this is my final book event. And now for the rest of the week, I’ll be having conversations and hopefully interviews with people about this subject.

In MGIMO, the university that you spoke at, I’ll be speaking at again about arms control. I’m hopeful that there will be some arms control panels and maybe some interviews with some highly placed people.

JUDGE NAPOLITANO: Boy, that’ll be terrific. And of course, of course I wish you well. You know, I spent two weeks in Russia, not as extensively as you. One of them was happily with you. I didn’t sense any dissent or bitterness whatsoever. In fact, I sense a level of collegiality and common goal and common purpose far stronger than anything that exists in the United States.

Security Concerns and National Unity

SCOTT RITTER: Yeah, no, there’s unique. Look, tonight I’m in St. Petersburg, and just so people understand the context here, in 2023, Maxim Tatarsky, who is a very popular Russian blogger, military blogger, was assassinated by a Ukrainian intelligence agent, somebody working for the Ukrainian intelligence. And there’s been other people that have been killed.

And in St. Petersburg, as I’ve been told by their security people, their concern is that there’s still an active Ukrainian intelligence cell seeking to assassinate people. And I’m like number one on the Myrotvorets list. They’ve already tried to kill me a couple times. And so, you know, getting a venue to hold a book launch is a risky thing.

And we were going to do it in the biggest bookstore in St. Petersburg and the FSB came in and said, no, you’re not. We can’t guarantee the security. We tried three other locations and they all got canceled.

So tonight what we did is we held it in the LDPR party headquarters. That’s the party of Zhirinovsky. It’s not Vladimir Putin’s party. They are oftentimes critical commenters on Putin’s policy, etc. But the reason why I bring this up is when it comes to this war, when it comes to Russian unity, these guys are 100% behind Russia.

And that’s what people need to understand. No one’s betraying Russia at this point in time, and everybody’s behind the Russian leadership in bringing an end to this war. That doesn’t mean when the war ends, that these people won’t get back and start promoting. They’re a very nationalistic party, and so they’ll probably be promoting more nationalistic policies. But when it comes to the war, when it comes to Vladimir Putin’s, you know, what he’s doing in terms of leading the Russians, there is national unity like you’ve never seen.

Americans don’t understand it. And especially when we compare and contrast not just the Republicans and the Democrats, but within the Republican Party, within the Democrats, the dissenting points of view, the people willing to stab the American president in the back to undermine the president, to wish him failure. There’s none of that happening here in Russia. None whatsoever.

Senator Graham’s Disconnect From Reality

JUDGE NAPOLITANO: As recently as this week, I know this will raise your blood pressure a little bit, even though it’s not even worth the time of day mention, I guess. But I have to. As recently as this week, Senator Lindsey Graham said Ukraine is winning. Wouldn’t somebody from the Trump administration say, hey, Senator Graham, what are you crazy? This type of nonsense gets us nowhere.

SCOTT RITTER: I think the Trump administration right now is literally washing their hands of this. You saw Marco Rubio make a presentation to the press saying, I don’t know what else we can do. There’s nothing else we can do. That’s the bottom line. There’s nothing the United States can do.

Their sanctions on Russia are having null effect. You know, I look at the commentary of people about Rosneft, about Lukoil selling off assets. That’s not, you know, that’s just common sense. That’s just a business making the right decision to reduce their risk. Any company in America would do the same thing. But everybody’s looking, you know, try to overread things.

Russia is in 100% control of its economy. Russia is not failing at all. Again, I don’t mean to pick on Gilbert Doctorow, but he’s sitting there talking about the price of coffee as if it’s some sort of indicator that the Russian economy is secretly failing.

Hey, Gilbert, I went to like five different stores. I don’t know what stores you shop at, pal, and maybe you’re buying Brazilian beans, but I’m telling you, the price of coffee in Russia is affordable. People could buy bags of beans, grind their own coffee and drink it for far cheaper than you insinuate in your article. And this is the reality.

The Real Russia

The cops aren’t corrupt. I’ve been in cars twice now on this trip. They’ve been pulled over by the traffic cops to do their random, you know, see if you’ve been drinking. And they’re very polite, very professional. The window comes down, they look in, they ask to see the documents, they ask a question, and on you go. There is no police corruption taking place like Gilbert Doctorow is talking about.

I don’t know what Russia he’s experienced, but I’m out there living in the real Russia. I’m not in the hotels paid for by the elites. I’m not out there being wined and dined by the elites. I’m having dinner with frontline soldiers and the salt of the earth. And again, I’m just telling you that the reality of Russia is completely different than that reality that these other people are putting out there.

JUDGE NAPOLITANO: Scotty, thank you very much. I know it’s already Saturday where you are. I can’t tell you how much we appreciate this. Be well. Safe travels. We’ll look forward to seeing you again soon. My dear friend. All the best to you.

SCOTT RITTER: Okay, thanks.

JUDGE NAPOLITANO: Of course. Wow. If you’re watching us live in three minutes, the Intelligence Community Roundtable, 4:30 Eastern, with Matt Hoh and Ray McGovern. Judge Napolitano for Judging Freedom.

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