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Transcript of Vivian Balakrishnan on Global Uncertainty And Implications For Singapore

Read the full transcript of Singapore Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan’s speech in parliament on March 3, 2025 about the rapidly shifting global landscape and its implications for a small state like Singapore when major powers prioritise national interests and turn inwards.

Listen to the audio version here:

TRANSCRIPT:

Introduction to a Disrupted World Order

[VIVIAN BALAKRISHNAN:] Madam Chairperson, this is the tenth time I’m addressing the Committee of Supply as the Minister for Foreign Affairs. And I’ve never seen the world more disrupted, more volatile, or more dangerous. So this is a more somber, a more careful, and a brutally frank message this year. The common thread in all the interventions so far has been this big question, has the post-World War Two liberal world order come to an end?

This is a world order which has prevailed for eight decades. In 2025, Singapore celebrates our sixtieth anniversary, but it is also the eightieth anniversary of the end of the Second World War. In these six decades, successive generations of hardworking and disciplined Singaporeans have built up our tiny city-state into an outstanding beacon of economic and social success. That we did so without any natural resources or past fiscal reserves is all the more remarkable. But we should also be realistic and humble enough to be cognizant that there were external factors that were very conducive to our success.

The Post-World War Liberal World Order

The post-World War Liberal World Order was characterized by, first, the proliferation and the rise of free trade and global supply chains and multinational enterprises. Second, the establishment of multilateral institutions, United Nations, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the WTO for trade, WHO for health. Third, the development of international law and the treaties to protect the global commons, including, for instance, the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, the BBNJ, the treaty for biodiversity beyond national jurisdictions.

This world order was initially envisioned and underwritten by the United States and supported by its transatlantic allies in Western Europe. In turn, it was boosted by the reform and opening of China under Mr. Deng Xiaoping since 1978, the economic liberalization of India under Prime Minister Narasimha Rao since 1991, and the integration of ASEAN economies, at the end of the Cold War when Indochina joined us.

And this global order was very favorable for a tiny city-state, which has a trade volume three times our GDP. And Singapore’s role as a global financial center and our business ecosystem with intensive interactions between local and foreign companies engaged in advanced manufacturing and the provision of sophisticated services for a global market. In a sense, what I’m making, the point I’m making is that Singapore enjoyed the best of many worlds, and we were able to fire on all cylinders.

The Shifting Global Landscape

Unfortunately, the world is now shifting from unipolarity to multipolarity, from free trade to protectionism, from multilateralism to unilateralism, from globalization to hypernationalism, from openness to xenophobia, from optimism to anxiety.

And this is a global change, not just in one place. The big powers are taking a narrower view of their national interest, and they are adopting a more transactional and, frankly, sometimes even a more coercive approach. And because there is a lack of strategic trust between the big powers, each of them has deep anxiety to stay ahead of each other. These profound shifts have ushered in an era of sharper rivalry, autarky, and the fracturing of global supply chains. Countries have turned inwards ostensibly in the name of national security, resilience, and derisking in order to secure the individual interest in this turbulent environment.

This is not merely a sudden temporary change in diplomatic weather. This is geostrategic climate change. A new world order is taking shape and characterized by profound unpredictability, instability, and volatility. The question then is what does this portend for us in Singapore? This is a question which is on all your minds.

Implications for Singapore

There are three broad sets of implications for Singapore.

# First: Economic Implications

The United States for a very long time was the main advocate for freer trade globally. Post-World War Two, the United States had a disproportionate share of global GDP at forty percent. Today, the U.S. share of global GDP has declined to around twenty-six percent, although in absolute nominal terms, its GDP has grown tremendously.

It is a completely understandable political question for the domestic American voter to say, why should the United States continue to unilaterally underwrite this liberal world order, which in fact has brought peace and prosperity for so many other countries around the world. And so over the last decade, the United States has progressively shifted to a more nationalist approach in response to what it deems to be unfair trade measures and free riding.

The new US administration clearly sees tariffs as a means to address non-trade related policy objectives, including national security, local job creation, more resilient supply chains, and bargaining leverage. Other major countries are also using similar restrictions on trade more frequently and not always confining themselves to trade-related issues. Tariffs are being applied to partners, to competitors, and to adversaries alike. The US has announced tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. And in turn, these countries have also signaled retaliatory measures. Tit for tat tariffs by other countries can easily escalate into a global trade war.

Singapore so far has not been targeted directly. But even if we are not, we will still be affected. These tariffs will have a major impact on the volume and the pattern of world trade and significantly affect us the first level as a transshipment hub and with all the other global services that we provide the world. There will be supply chain disruptions. There will be more volatile prices. And it is worth remembering, if you cast your mind back to the 1930s, the Great Depression, retaliatory beggar-thy-neighbor policies, in fact, slowed growth everywhere. So we need to be prepared for this.

But the problems go beyond just trade and tariffs because in fact there are also implications on the global financial system and the way frontier technology, which some of you have referred to, is being developed, is being shared and it’s being exploited.