Col Doug Macgregor: Who Believes These are Peace Talks? (Transcript)

Read the full transcript of defense and foreign policy analyst Colonel Doug Macgregor in conversation with United States foreign policy analyst Lt Col Daniel Davis on “Who Believes These are Peace Talks?”, July 22, 2025.

The Reality Behind Tomorrow’s Istanbul Talks

DANIEL DAVIS: While peace talks are going to happen in Istanbul, Turkey tomorrow between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations face to face, on the surface of it, a lot of people want to say, “Hey, we’re making progress towards peace, we’re getting closer.” But when you look at the actual positions of the two sides heading into this talk tomorrow, it becomes more and more clear that this is basically both sides are just doing whatever they think they need to do diplomatically to keep whatever constituency they want happy.

But as Colonel Doug Macgregor, who’s on the show today and there couldn’t have been a better time, this is going to focus on that nobody should be expecting any big breakthroughs, which ironically is what Dmitri Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, actually has some of the same comments. Nobody should expect magical breakthroughs. What about you, Doug? Do you see any magical breakthroughs?

DOUG MACGREGOR: Well, in view of the decision by the Air Force to position low yield nuclear warheads in Great Britain, in other words, gravity bombs, B12s that carry nuclear charges in England is to ostensibly threaten the Russians. That’s not a good start for the talks.

DANIEL DAVIS: Yeah, and I’m sorry, I just want to drill in on that for a second. Why in the world would we need to station anything in the UK? They have their own nukes and we have our own global distribution triad. Why do we need to do that?

Nuclear Escalation and Strategic Miscalculation

DOUG MACGREGOR: Well, this is specifically designed to be delivered by an F-15 or an F-35A. In other words, aircraft that can fly at least within range of targets, something like St. Petersburg or further east potentially. But St. Petersburg’s an obvious and easy target.

And I think in the minds of some people, this threatening gesture of committing these low yield nuclear warheads to England right now is going to influence what happens in Istanbul. I don’t see any evidence for that. As you pointed out earlier, the two sides are further apart than ever.

I don’t see any evidence that the Ukrainians are going to behave as President Trump said a few months ago, knowing that they do not hold any cards. They’re behaving as though they hold cards. And the card appears to be us, Great Britain and to a lesser extent France. And I think that’s why the tactical nuclear weapon is being moved there.

It’s a very dangerous thing to do because it reinforces, frankly, what we saw Dmitri Trenin say in RT and on several other broadcasts, that the Russians think World War III has already begun and they’re now trying to organize and mobilize, not the way they did for World War II, but in the current environment, to deal with what they think is the last final great attempt by the United States and the west to destroy them.

I don’t think any of this is good news, and I don’t think it bodes well for what’s going to happen in Istanbul.

Trump’s Decision-Making Process

DANIEL DAVIS: You know, I wonder, Doug, what you think about, because I’m trying to think about what Trump has said in recent days, and we’re going to show you some of what he said regarding the negotiations here in just a minute. But there was a couple of times when the weapons and ammunition for Ukraine had been paused that Trump didn’t know anything about them. And he was asked pretty point blank about that. And he literally was caught with his pants down, had no idea when the reporter asked him. Then he went back and found out later on and made changes.

Do you think that Trump actually consciously made that decision to put the nuclear weapon in England, or do you think that this is something that somebody in the Pentagon might think and maybe Trump doesn’t even know?

DOUG MACGREGOR: Well, these things are hard to know. And we’re always condemned to speculate because we’re not in the room and we’re not on the ground and we don’t know exactly what was said by anyone present in front of the president.

But I can tell you that Fred Kaplan wrote a book many years ago, certainly more than 20 years ago, maybe 15 years ago. It was about atomic war and it’s entitled “The Bomb.” And Fred Kaplan, in this book, recounts some advice that then Mr. Trump, long before he had embarked on his political career, had offered to a chief negotiator with the Soviet side in the 1980s, and I guess this late 80s, early 90s, and it was about intermediate range nuclear weapons and the nuclear arsenal.

Ultimately, we got a good agreement. We both reduced our arsenals by a third, which was very smart, frankly. But President Trump said, “Well, I’ve got advice for you. This is to the negotiator, you’re going to walk up to the Soviet opponent who’s negotiating against you, you’re going to walk in the room, you’re going to put your finger in his chest and say screw you” as the opening salvo of the talks.

Obviously this advice was ignored. We did get an agreement. It was workable. So having gone back and reviewed some of the things that President Trump has said and done in his lifetime where he thinks, based on his “art of the deal,” that the best way to do business is to bully people, I’m afraid that he might well know that this has happened and he may think this is going to have some sort of salutary effect. I don’t think so. I think the opposite is the case. But you and I are not inside.

Trump’s Unrealistic Expectations

DANIEL DAVIS: We’re not. But as you say, there is some evidence that makes that a concerning thing.

But what also is concerning, speaking specifically about the commander in chief, is his judgment on several things and specifically about trying to get an end of war settlement with Russia and Ukraine.

Now, obviously, we’ve talked about many times how he was going to get this done in a day and then 100 days and then, well, actually a couple of weeks and then, well, okay, now 50 days. So obviously he’s all over the map on that. But there was something he said in a BBC interview a few days back that I think is really worth noting because it shows at least what he said in public was that he has an expectation that is pretty far divorced from reality.

[BBC Interview excerpt]

BBC: You’ve said you were four times close to a deal with Putin.

TRUMP: Yeah, I had a deal four times.

BBC: Are you done with him? I mean, I know that sounds simplistic, but…

TRUMP: I’m disappointed in him. But I’m not done with him. But I’m disappointed in him. So we had a deal done four times. And then you go home and you…see just attacked a nursing home or something in Kiev. I said, “What the hell was that all about?” Do you trust him?

TRUMP: I trust almost nobody, to be honest with you.

BBC: So how do you deal with someone you can’t trust?

TRUMP: Well, it’s not a question of that. It’s like I’m disappointed that this hasn’t been done.

DANIEL DAVIS: I mean, aside from the fact he doesn’t really answer the questions he says and this is not the first time or only time he said it is that he thought he had a deal four times. But there is no way on earth you can think you had a deal with Putin when he has never deviated from his requirements for ending the war. What do you make of that?

The Art of the Deal vs. International Relations

DOUG MACGREGOR: Well, he doesn’t understand that there’s this thing called negotiations, and these have to happen, and these take time, and they involve people systematically moving through all of the details on both sides, coming to an arrangement that both sides can accept, an arrangement that will not give everyone everything they want, but an arrangement that is at least satisfactory and satisfies the legitimate security interests of all concerned.

That takes time and patience, and President Trump has neither time nor patience for it. He thinks that he can get on the phone and much like a real estate deal in New York, “We’ll give you this. What are you going to take? Oh, well, don’t be stupid. Take this. This is a beautiful deal for you.” And everything will be great if you do it well.

That’s not the way things work in international relations. That’s not the way things work between governments. I’m sure that President Putin was always very polite to President Trump. It may be that he misinterpreted politeness as weakness or as the readiness to sign on for something that President Trump wanted. Who knows?

There are times when I just don’t think President Trump is operating in the same universe as the rest of us. And I think that’s particularly true when it comes to the Russians.

Western Delusions About Russian Intentions

DANIEL DAVIS: You know, we talked about that’s kind of how Trump sees things. I want to look here. This is just a representative sample. This is Mick Mulroy on ABC News talking about the upcoming talks. And I think that he gives a pretty common view of how these things are going to work from the Western side. And I wanted to get your view on the backside of whether this is somebody detached from reality or whether they have just been confused and think this is reality.

[ABC News excerpt]

MICK MULROY: So I think it’s maximalist. I think they’re, in many ways, they’re just trying to keep this ceasefire negotiation talk going. But the only way that’s really going to be effective, if there’s an actual ceasefire during the negotiations. If not, I believe Russia is just going to keep continuing to strike civilian targets in Kiev. They’re going to try to incrementally take up territory in the east. And that is their plan.

They have 50 days to do so before there’s even consequences. So the only way to change that is to make consequences, which is to get ready and potentially speed up putting sanctions on Russia, potentially even secondary sanctions. They can also start releasing some of the frozen assets that Russia has in Western banks. There’s over 300 billion. And that could also be substantial and something that Russia would want to see.

But right now, it looks like Russia is going to keep doing what they’re doing, potentially increasing their attacks, but with no real interest to see any kind of negotiated ceasefire.

DANIEL DAVIS: Because, I mean, there’s not an issue about whether there’s an interest. Russia definitely has an interest. They have been very clear on what their conditions are. And yet you still see this comment here that, “Well, they’re just not interested in peace.” What do you make of the view of what he said specifically, but also just how it’s generally viewed in the West?

The Double Standard Problem

DOUG MACGREGOR: Well, you heard this statement that President Trump said, “I don’t know, they attacked a nursing home.” Well, that’s nonsense. The Russians have bent over backwards to avoid civilian casualties and collateral damage, more so than almost anybody else in the last 50 or 60 years, I certainly think more so than we ever did in Vietnam.

So I reject this notion that the Russians are evil. The Russians intend to harm everyone they can. Nothing could be further from the truth. If they were that interested in harming people, this war would have proceeded very differently from the way it has. So that’s the first problem. And this man is simply signed on for all the nonsense, “The Russians aren’t serious. The Russians are this or that.”

Look, if we are steadfastly opposed under any and all circumstances to identify and subscribe to Russia’s legitimate security interests, right off the bat, there’s no chance for anything good coming out of this. Again, as we’ve talked many times, this is sort of like saying, “Well, we tell the Chinese, don’t you dare invade Taiwan or it’ll be war.” And they look at us as though we’ve lost our minds.

Would China basically say to us, “Don’t you dare threaten Cuba or it’ll be war with China?” Of course not. That makes no sense. It’s ridiculous.

DANIEL DAVIS: Yeah.

DOUG MACGREGOR: We’re in this kind of utterly bizarre universe where we are always right, we are always perfect, we are always morally justified, and everyone else is wrong. And Zelensky, who is ostensibly our puppet in Kiev, sometimes I wonder if he’s not pulling strings as well.

DANIEL DAVIS: Right.

Russian Perspectives on Peace Negotiations

DOUG MACGREGOR: Has lots of friends in Israel and in New York City and Washington are pulling strings for him. The bottom line is that this is all the theater of the absurd. You know, the only thing that the Russians can ever do that will make people happy in Washington, D.C. is to get on their knees, beg for forgiveness, and then put a gun to their head and kill themselves. It’s a lot of nonsense.

So I think we ought to just ignore what goes on there. Let’s see if anything comes out of it. But I can’t conceive of anything positive emerging. And now at the same time you’ve got all these things coming out of the CIA and MI6 rumors suggesting that Zelensky is on his way out, that there’s a desire to remove him and replace him with Solutiony over in London.

This is illusion, of course. As a former commander of Ukrainian ground forces, I don’t know why anybody thinks that the Russians would be inclined to accept Solutiony, who’s an MI6 puppet from London, as somehow better than Zelensky. It’s inconceivable. I don’t see any evidence that that would be the case.

But you know, all of these things are swirling around constantly and we don’t really know other than to say the following. The Russians are pressing ahead and I think they have finally concluded there is no alternative to ending this war but on the battlefield.

DANIEL DAVIS: Well certainly it’s moving in that direction. And before I get to the Russian bar here, one of our audience members has asked a question that I wanted to run by you. He said, “The thing that scares me is that the Gerald Ford carrier group has entered the Mediterranean. Last time they entered the sea the US bombed Iran. How possible is it for the US to bomb Russia?” What do you think about that?

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DOUG MACGREGOR: I think it’s extremely unlikely, but nothing is impossible with this administration given the attitudes that are expressed and the sort of level of disinformation and self delusion. I think we should be more concerned that that carrier is there for Israeli use against Iran than anything else.

The Istanbul Talks and Russian Terms

DANIEL DAVIS: Yeah, that’s a whole separate can of worms. But yeah, whatever is, it’s not nothing done there for American national security interests. I think we can pretty safely say that. But I do want to shift over to the Russian side. So that’s kind of the view from the US side, kind of how we’re viewing things, which is as you say, kind of detached from reality.

But the Russians are continuing to say things that they’ve said all along. In fact this is going to be, if everything works out right, tomorrow is going to be the third meeting of Russia and Ukraine in direct talks at Istanbul since the abortive time in 2022. And on the second one there was a list given a 12 point peace plan by the Russians, a memorandum which basically was, I mean if you’re just being honest it was basically terms of surrender. That’s what was on the table then.

Yesterday, or maybe it was even today, Dmitry Peskov says that this meeting, the one for Istanbul, third meeting, is going to say if. Gary, if you can put that one back up, the one from Dmitry Peskov, he’s saying that. That Rio Nova Ste is reporting that Russia and Ukraine will have to discuss difficult topics at the talks, including draft memorandums on the settlement.

Said Peskov, “The topic of negotiations is quite complicated. In addition to other issues, of course, it will be necessary to discuss the very draft memorandums that were exchanged during the second round.” So while it seems many in the west want to change the terms and make it something. And I can’t believe I keep hearing people say this, terms that are beneficial to Kiev, to somehow think they can negotiate that away. The Russian side has said, we haven’t moved since the last one. We’re still here.

Trump’s Role and Nuclear Escalation Risks

DOUG MACGREGOR: I think the Russians know that the key to all of this is Washington, D.C. President Trump has always had the power to tell Zelensky enough. Remember his little meeting in the Oval Office where Zelensky behaved so badly while he was wearing his costume as a military leader, and President Trump said, “You have no cards to play. You hold nothing. You need to sit down.”

Well, President Trump was right when he said that the cards that Zelensky is holding are American cards, primarily. Not even British or French or German, but primarily American. It is up to us to decide whether or not we’re going to allow the Germans to provide Taurus missiles to the Ukrainians, whether or not we’re going to allow the British to launch missiles that they’ve manufactured or created against Russia. The same thing is true in France.

In other words, the man in charge of everything is, in fact, Donald Trump. He has the authority to suspend all of it, or he has the authority to move forward. Thus far, he’s not suspending anything. And so Zelensky is happy to send his crew to Istanbul with instructions to stonewall, give up nothing, demand everything. And I think that’s what we’re going to see.

So the whole thing stands or falls on the basis of what President Trump’s willing to do. I don’t know how much good will there is left in Russia. I mean, the Russians have lied to so prolifically over the last 20 years, over and over and over again. We go back all the way to 2014, to the coup, and then what happens in the Minsk accords and so forth. Nobody in the west ever bothers to point that out. It’s all very one sided. We’re good, they’re bad, ergo, they should do what we say. That’s not going to happen.

But President Trump needs to sit down and very carefully evaluate the wisdom of his latest move of moving those gravity bombs, the B12s, the low yield nuclear warheads, to Great Britain to be ostensibly loaded onto F15s and F35s. Now, if that’s his intention, and that’s his card that he’s playing right now with Zelensky, he’s on the path to a confrontation with Russia. That’s the truth.

There needs to be an understanding in Washington where there is none, that the Russians are deadly serious. This is not open for debate. Ukraine presents in its current form an existential threat to Russia. It will not be tolerated. Well, seriously, we will end up at war with Russia.

Russian Patience and Hard Limits

DANIEL DAVIS: And it certainly looks like Russia completely understands what you just said because Dimitri Peskov understands, number one, that it’s Trump that’s actually calling the shots here. And then number two, that they’re not backing down from anything here. This is two days ago where Dmitry Peskov was addressing the possibility of a Trump Putin meeting, which he said was possible but difficult. And then he listed some other conditions. So he says “Our goals are clear, unambiguous and unchanged.” So sounds like that Russia recognizes that.

And you talk about the Russians, I think they of anything are very patient. They seem to want to avoid a conflict. But it also seems that they will have some hard stops somewhere that they say, no, we’re not going to go further than this.

DOUG MACGREGOR: I think we should watch carefully over the next few days to see what Russia decides to do on the ground, not only in Ukraine, but also in Belarus. In terms of moving capabilities forward, I’m thinking in terms of so called tactical nuclear weapons. I think we may see some of that as a definite and unambiguous signal to us is that they haven’t missed it. They understand what we’re doing and they’re not going to play games with us.

The other thing he mentioned, which again falls on deaf ears right now in the Trump White House, is this comment of tremendous work, this instant gratification culture in the United States is, I’m afraid, typified. And much of President Trump’s rhetoric, when he talks about tariffs and he puts down this 60 day time limit, either you sign up or you face worse tariffs and so forth, there is this notion that everybody and everything can be systematically packed into the Policy, microwave. Then you hit the button, and then when the button rings, bing, out comes your answer. And your answer is what you want, that you’re going to get everything you asked for or demanded.

That doesn’t apply. You and I know that everything takes tremendous effort, tremendous work. Long, strenuous and determined negotiation. But that’s not what we’re doing. Everything is a matter of bullying and microwave tactics. Get in, get in, get in fast, do what we want, or else you’re going to be fried for all intents and purposes. I just don’t think it’s working very well. I don’t think it has any chance of working in the future.

But remember, right now you got a lot of people who are saying, well, look, we signed the big, beautiful bill. We’re now up to a trillion dollar defense budget, that nothing bad has happened yet. Interest rates are down. Well, yes. Bond yields are rising. That reflects a certain lack of confidence, a lack of foreign investment in the United States. I know, but, you know, things are really actually pretty good. And look, look at the border. People are not coming in. Yeah, we’re not really deporting very many people. Biden deported more than we have thus far, but we’re getting there. And we’re locking up criminals. So, you know, look at the bright side.

Well, I think they’re in for a hell of a awakening coming up in the near future, and it’s unavoidable because things aren’t what they seem.

Ukrainian Diplomatic Objectives

DANIEL DAVIS: Yeah, and we’re actually going to touch on that in a second because you got a piece coming out in the American Conservative tomorrow, which we’re going to talk about in a second related to that. But before we get there, I should just show you what the Russians think. We’ve talked about what the Westerners and Americans think. Let’s go to now to Ukraine, because Volodymyr Zelensky has a very different definition of what diplomacy is supposed to produce. “The main task of Ukrainian diplomacy is to promote everything that protects Ukrainian life in Ukraine first and foremost and everything that hurts Russia for war. And each of you must be specific in your own results for the sake of our people, for the sake of Ukraine. This is not pathos. It is true, I believe, that this is the main goal. The first is weapons.”

Of course, we will not publicly discuss the details in each area now, but each of you knows what is in your countries. What are the opportunities for cooperation between joint productions. We now have a truly global cooperation, the largest ever built for Ukraine. But this does not mean that we can stop expanding the activity. We should always look for a new format.

So since his first diplomacy objective is protecting his country, that’s fine. That’s everybody supposed to do that. But then simultaneous with that, and apparently co equal is to harm Russia. It’s one and the other. And then of course, everything is focused on getting more weapons. So if that’s the comment from the leader, what do you think the delegation is going to do when it comes to Russian delegation tomorrow in Istanbul?

The New Long War Against Russia

DOUG MACGREGOR: Well, this is the new long war. Remember, I discussed that a few weeks ago. And we need to understand that the people that were behind the long war when we were involved in this global war on terrorism that now seems to have vanished, like nonsense on the wind, is now being replaced by a new long war, the new long war against Russia.

I would argue you’ve got a new long war against Iran and potentially Islam, as long as it fails to bend a knee to Israel. So this is all part and parcel of the same thing. The same people, the neoconservative figures and Zionists who are pushing us to war in the Middle East are also pushing us back into war against Russia.

Now, they’re betting, and this is very dangerous, they’re betting that the Russians will simply sit and take it. In other words, “okay, that’s fine, we’ve gone far enough. We’ll sit here and let us know when you want to talk again.” No, I don’t think that’s the case. I think we’re pushing the Russians over the edge where they’re going to have to take dramatic and decisive action. They have been reluctant to do that for good reason.

But I think after these talks at Istanbul are over, it becomes clear what’s really going on, which Zelensky, in my judgment, has said very straightforwardly. “We’re not going to sign up for anything that does not hurt Russia.” I mean, just stop and think about that. It’s incomprehensible. How do you reach a peace agreement with your opponent if the agreement itself is supposed to perpetually harm your opponent?

I mean, that was the problem with the Versailles Treaty. If you go back and look at it carefully, it essentially consigned Germany to a permanent pariah role and for that matter, Russia as well, that they had then become the Soviet Union. Everyone was pushed into a corner and of course, we know how that turned out. You push people into a corner, they’re going to strike back at you.

America’s Weakened Position

Now, we’re not the country we were then. We’re not as strong as we were then. Neither are our allies. We are actually in a much weaker state in every category of national power. That’s why when we use this term from Lenin, the correlation of forces, we say often. I know you have and I have, and others have said it. Larry Johnson, the correlation of forces doesn’t favor us in this collision with Russia in Ukraine. It simply doesn’t.

And it’s not favoring us right now in the Middle East. We’re working with 9 million or 7 million people in Israel versus not just 92 million in Iran, but potentially hundreds of millions of people. It’s not a good thing. It’s not sensible. It’s not going to lead to any sort of stable peace in the near future.

So I’m glad that Zelensky spoke and said what he did, because at least he’s being honest. “Give us more weapons.” And by the way, he has no one to use the weapons on the battlefield, so he wants more weapons in terms of unmanned systems, rockets and missiles. He’s not asking for weapons to put in the hands of tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers. In fact, I don’t think that even bothers him anymore or worries him anymore.

You know, Ukraine is effectively a graveyard. If you want to look at it from the realistic standpoint. You’ve got well over 1.5, almost 1.8 million dead Ukrainian soldiers. How many others have been injured or wounded, I don’t know. But that’s not what he’s interested in. He’s interested in these, what we have talked about in the past, revenge weapons, the Storm Shadow, the Taurus, and unmanned systems that he can ship drones through airspace and launch from inside of Russia.

All of this is what he’s about that just drags this thing out. And at some point, your opponent says, “these people aren’t serious,” and they’re not. And I think President Putin knows that. The problem is, I don’t think President Trump understands this. He’s caught up in this false dichotomy. “We’re good, they’re bad.” No, that’s not the case.

This is not… He keeps saying, “it’s not my war,” Mr. President, it’s your war. You’ve made it your war. That’s the problem. You should get out of it. You should have gotten out of it the moment he took over and said, “we want nothing to do with this.” He should have made restoring relations with Russia good relations his top priority. He didn’t do it. He finally fell victim to the same people that sabotaged and diverted and distracted him the last time around.

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So at this point, I don’t pay too much attention to President Trump anymore when he says these things. What does it really mean? I don’t know.

Actions Matter More Than Words

DANIEL DAVIS: Yeah, it only matters what is done, not what is said. And in terms of what’s done and said, one of the other things that Zelensky is doing, you talked about how he’s looking for these revenge type weapons and he’s taking action on it. One of our viewers just showed that he launched another strike into Moscow last night. I haven’t seen any reports of whether they found their mark or not, but at least he did try because he’s shooting back. Russia continues to shoot many hundreds of air attacks into Ukraine per day. They did it again overnight here too.

But what really seems to motivate Zelensky, aside from his hatred for Russia and wanting these revenge attacks is money. We’ve often seen Gary’s Throne shown a bunch of times. This picture from December 2023 when Zelensky was meeting with this whole room full of smiling faces and guys from Lockheed Martin and said all these different places for weapons manufacturing because that’s what they were really happy about that kind of thing.

Well, now then, it seems that Zelensky has taken it another step further and made it easier for corruption to take place in his country. Watch this.

Zelensky’s Corruption Moratorium

DOUG MACGREGOR: “We will hold a moratorium, a ban on checking businesses. And about what we have discussed with the government officials, we will hold a moratorium, a ban on checking businesses and in general, any interference of law enforcement agencies controlling various state structures into business activities. Of course, in addition to very risky shadow sectors such as the sphere of alcohol and tobacco products, so that there are no new gray schemes, there is also a clear list of legislative changes, specific measures at the level of the government to really change the positive conditions for business in our country during the moratorium.”

DANIEL DAVIS: And as the Kiev Independent is reporting that what he’s done there is not making it easier to handle business for the war effort, but it just gets rid of anti corruption agencies and makes it easier for the Zelensky regime to be corrupt. And now then what little controls there were are being taken away. How do you view the process here and the results?

DOUG MACGREGOR: Well, I think he should have titled the speech differently. It should have said “message to my donors” because effectively he’s addressing this mountain of corruption on which he privately and personally also depends for his existence. The whole Ukrainian state is a kleptocracy. Almost 30, 40% of everything we send in terms of cash or equipment ends up disappearing into the black hole of corruption. We know that. We’ve seen the photographs of Mexican cartel members walking around with Javelin missiles on their backs.

So this is not a new phenomenon. He’s simply saying, “look, we’re giving up. We can’t fix it, we can’t control it, but we can benefit from it.” And so I’m going to allow it. That’s all. And it’s going to benefit him and his regime. Now, the Ukrainian people, that’s another tragic story. And we don’t get truthful reports about Ukrainian feelings in the West. But the Ukrainian people have had it with this war. They want an end to it. They would welcome a peace agreement of some kind. It would put an end to their misery and to this destruction. But we’re not going to see it.

Lessons from the Gulf War

You know, something else here, and this is something I think the Russians need to learn from us. You and I lived this in 1991, when the ceasefire was suddenly called one sided, we stopped. And you’ll recall at the time I was not full of jubilation.

DANIEL DAVIS: I do remember that very clearly because…

DOUG MACGREGOR: I felt strongly this war needed to go on for another few weeks in order to go to Baghdad and end this thing. And everybody said “we don’t want to occupy.” Well, of course we didn’t need to occupy. We never needed to occupy. From your experience with the Iraqi troops and the Iraqi officers that we could have gone there, removed Saddam and turned it over to them and they’d have been happy to take it over and run the police and we could have had a different outcome from what we got.

But none of us knew at the time that once there was an agreement being discussed between Saddam Hussein’s representatives in the United States. The question Saddam Hussein asked was, “what are they doing now? Are they advancing?” And the answer was no. He said, “they’re not crossing the Euphrates River.” “No, sir.” With that he got up and he danced around the table and he celebrated. “They’re not crossing the Euphrates River. We win. We’ve won because we’ve survived.”

I think the Russians need to look at Zelensky as kind of a Saddam Hussein figure. The only way he wins is by staying where he is.

DANIEL DAVIS: And he would consider that a win. His whole country could be burned down, but he personally would consider it a win if he just stays in power.

DOUG MACGREGOR: Yeah. And there was never any evidence that Saddam Hussein was terribly worried about the plight of his nation. Yeah. And the millions of people living inside Iraq’s borders. He could care less. He didn’t care about the sanctions or anything else. So I think the Russians need to sit down and understand what they’re dealing with. They’re dealing with Saddam Hussein, somebody who could care less as long as they stay in power.

As long as nobody shows up at the front door and says, “hello, we’re knocking, you’re finished. We’ve got a wagon out front for you and you’re going to disappear into it and be done with you.” Until something like that occurs or he gets into a jet which I’m sure is fully fueled and manned and standing by as it is, gets into it and tries to fly away. This will go on.

The Pokrovsk Front Line Crisis

DANIEL DAVIS: Well, and here’s the problem with that. If that’s what Zelensky is thinking is going to be his long term plan, he might want to take a look at the tactical map because the front line is starting to buckle in one of the worst places for Ukraine it could in Pokrovsk.

DOUG MACGREGOR: “I believe that currently there are very heavy clashes for the southwestern part. And I believe that we are going to receive more and more videos exactly from this area. This is a vital question for the Russians to establish control over this part of the city of Pokrovsk, because if the Russians are able to secure this territory, this area, we call it as a contested area, then most likely the Russians will continue offensive operation in the northern direction. So with the main supply lines through the city of Pokrovsk itself as close as possible to the railways and in the direction of the settlement of Grishna. Because the Russians, if they are able to secure the western part of the city of Pokrovsk completely like this, this is going to be obviously a cauldron. A cauldron without any chances for evacuation. But most likely the Russians will be very fast because they understand that it’s…”

Russian Offensive Gains Momentum

DANIEL DAVIS: Time to finish this as soon as possible. And in fact that’s been going on. You may recall for our viewers that I guess late last year Russia was making a pretty big sweep across the eastern front and they moved up to Pokrovsk and it looked like they were going to continue moving right along there and Pokrovsk could fall.

The Ukraine side rushed a bunch of reinforcements into it, built up a bunch of hasty defensive positions, continued to spill it in further. And the Russian offensive kind of lost its steam in November of 2024. But here in the last month or so Russia has picked up steam.

And let me run real quick to the current battle map here. This is Pokrovsk down here and where we just saw in this area down here, this is the, once in November I guess they kind of got up to this point here and then they kind of ran out of steam because the Ukraine side really stiffened its resistance and that’s what led them to start a flanking maneuver.

Well, I’ll talk about that in a second but this area here is just in the last 24 hours where Russia now then, because I think of what’s been going on up here on the northern, the northeastern flank have actually now as of this morning started penetrating into the city itself.

And so we see this cauldron forming but that’s also part of maybe a pair of cauldrons because the Konstantinivka over in this area here is facing its own cauldron and this bulge kind of up the middle here is potentially going to put both of them at risk.

And this lifeline here coming into Pokrovsk from the north, Russia is now then continuing to move up the flanks of this as well. And they’re only 3km away from Rodinska which is on this just to strive that route there which could completely unhinge it.

And if you unhinge this one here, Doug, from what I’ve talked to from some Russian journalists who was actually stationed on the Eastern front, he said this was unambiguously the main effort for Russia. They had some supporting efforts in the Zaporizhzhia area and in the Kupiansk but this was their priority of effort.

And if they break through here, he said they do seek to use operational exploitation forces. What would happen if Russia is successful here and do you see this as a real threat to Ukraine?

Seven Weeks of Good Weather

DOUG MACGREGOR: Well, the Russians know their own country and they know the weather patterns and they have about seven weeks of good weather and hard ground ahead of them. In other words, if you’re going to wrap this thing up once and for all and I think that’s what is going to turn out to be the case, then this is the time to advance, start moving.

They know nothing’s going to come out of Istanbul. I mean that’s been made very clear. Zelensky is celebrating more, the arrival of more revenge weapons, long range strike weapons that he can hurl at people.

So the Russians are taking a position. They’ve got seven weeks. You got to wrap it up, because at week seven, you’re starting into mid September. That’s when you begin to get a lot of rain, a lot of mud. By the time October hits, it’s a giant swamp. So you want to get as far west as you possibly can as quickly as you can, while you have decent weather and good ground.

I would be surprised if they didn’t do that now. I’ve been surprised before, but I think this is different.

DANIEL DAVIS: It has a different feel to it.

DOUG MACGREGOR: Yeah, I think so. And I think President Putin knows he’s done everything in his power to try and cultivate a good relationship with President Trump. He had high hopes, and I think many people in Russia had high hopes, that President Trump’s arrival on the scene would be a game changer, that there would be an opportunity to reach a reasonable agreement that kept Ukraine out of NATO, that made it a neutral state, whatever it turned out to be, and that would recognize Russia’s legitimate national security interests, as well as the rights of Russian citizens in Ukraine.

That’s being dashed now, destroyed. So there’s no longer any excuse to wait for something good to happen in Washington. It’s not coming, so you might as well end this thing.

The Cauldron Strategy

So my view is he mentioned two cauldrons. This is the old German expression “Kesselschlacht,” for a cauldron. In other words, a big pot. Those two contain most of what’s left of Ukrainian fighting power, as far as I can tell. So the only thing you’ve got left are drones and revenge weapons.

And there is a large concentration, let’s call it a column or two, further north headed towards Kiev. Just within the last 48 hours. There was this almost panicked report that came out of Kiev. There are 160,000 Russian troops, and they’re headed to Kiev.

Well, that’s not really true. They’re, there are troops headed in that direction, not 160,000, but they have at the vanguard the Achmat Brigade. And these are Chechen forces, along with Wagner forces that have coalesced into a very tough outfit.

And they’ve got lists of names of war criminals, people that have murdered Russians and Ukrainians on behalf of the regime. And they’re going after them as they advance west. And I think that scares the living daylights out of the Zelensky inner circle in its regime in Kiev.

And it should, because they’ve got to go there and they’ve got to deal decisively with these people or there will be no end to this war.

Domestic Concerns and Historical Parallels

DANIEL DAVIS: And that’s, you know, this is part of the word, though some of the reports are in the Sumi areas where some of these 160,000 are, which is quite close to Kiev. But last thing I want to ask you about is something that you actually have coming out in the American Conservative.

You mentioned earlier in this broadcast here that there are some concerns about even in the United States if we keep not paying attention to some of our domestic issues here. And in this piece, which will come out tomorrow, which you kindly gave us an intro to, you wrote, “In short, Washington is hurtling toward a sovereign debt crisis, escalating foreign wars and potential domestic unrest without a clear path forward. While President Trump did not create these challenges alone, he now bears responsibility for addressing them. He campaigned promises on accountability, transparency and fiscal reform yet have to be realized. The proverbial buck stops with this administration.”

But then you continued on “like the Parisians of 1789.” This is what got my attention. “America’s response powerfully to appeals that honor virtue and condemn vice. It would be a grave mistake for Trump to ignore the impact of the Epstein scandal, especially as it coincides with his administration’s failure to fulfill key campaign pledges.”

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What is it about today and the 1789 that has your alarm bells ringing?

The French Revolution Parallel

DOUG MACGREGOR: You know, I go back and I try to understand what’s happened before in other settings. And of course, the French Revolution, which continues to echo today across Europe and the world, as the Chinese once pointed out, is a good place to start.

The problems that affected Louis XVI and his government at the time were very similar to what we face. They had a tremendous fiscal crisis because of gross mismanagement and extravagant spending. They also had a lost war on their hands. When I say lost war, well, they helped us gain independence from the British, but it cost them enormous quantities of money. They had to send a fleet and manpower over. We’re very fortunate they did that because otherwise we would not be sitting here talking as Americans, Dan.

But the bottom line is those things had to be viewed in the context of the comments, because the fiscal emergency is already upon us. People that live in this country know what the effects of inflation are. They know how the prices rise. They know what they’re paying for things, and they know the truth about jobs and unemployment and who’s working and who’s left the workforce. We don’t need to go over all that. But Americans know what’s happening.

Now, on top of that, you had this other problem with Epstein. Now, why is the Epstein issue a problem? Because President Trump was elected, in large part the first time and again the second time, for accountability, transparency. He was elected because people saw him as different, as not part of the larger problem in Washington.

But the truth is, it looks like he’s very much a part of the problem he was elected to solve. And that’s very, very dangerous, because that happened in France. There was a time between 1780 and 1789 when the population overwhelmingly concluded that the ruling class was decadent, depraved, degenerate, and unworthy to rule.

And when this coincided with the fiscal problems, the inflation, the lack of money, the inability of people to sustain themselves, as we always talk about, they simply could not even buy bread when that finally came together. You had an explosion in 1789, and that revolution was incredibly destructive. It eventually ends in 1795, to some extent. I shouldn’t say ends, but certainly abates. It’s Bonaparte, when he takes over, who finally puts an end to it.

My point is there are already people looking at us around the world and saying, “Look at the United States Republic. It’s failed miserably. It’s corrupt, it’s ineffective, it’s inefficient, it’s unserious.” Democracy itself is on trial, and people are saying it’s failed. All right, that’s the problem.

And President Trump is at the center of this. He’s at the top of the pyramid, and he is too close to people that, frankly, are despicable. And Americans are shocked. Now, you’re always going to have the usual suspects in the party structures that see this as an opportunity for them to benefit. He says that he’s not wrong, but the point is he’s tainted. Now, very seriously, that does not help his case.

And I think that we still have a lot of problems here at home that we gloss over, that we pretend aren’t there, involving not just social and cultural and economic things, but also racial things. All of these things we need to deal with. And we’ve been talking about this for a long time. Bring the forces back.

If we’re serious about this deportation business, where’s the strategy? Where’s the plan? Where are the assets? Where’s the manpower? How are we going to do it? And people now say, “Oh, well, the latest polls say Americans don’t want that.” First of all, I don’t buy that necessarily. And I think Tom Holman was right when earlier today or yesterday, he was asked about, “Well, polls said X, Y, and Z.” He said, “I don’t believe it. Because everywhere I go, I run into Americans who are desperate for us to enforce the law.” I think he’s right. I think Americans want the law enforced.

So President Trump needs to back away. Take the broad perspective. Look at the wide range of possibilities. And don’t underestimate the impact of this Epstein mess. It’s ugly, and I don’t think it’s going to go away anytime soon. It may be like Watergate. I don’t know.

Distraction Tactics

DANIEL DAVIS: And what do you think about this potential distraction? Maybe there’s some substance in it. There apparently appears to be some. I’m not sure it’s as strong as what’s being claimed about this whole Obama and his senior guys changing intelligence, etc, but it seems like there’s a pretty concerted effort to make everybody say, “No, don’t look at Epstein, look at this Obama.” Obama’s always the evil one for many on the right. And do you think that they’re going to be successful at distracting everybody away from Epstein over to this issue?

DOUG MACGREGOR: Well, there’s an easy test. Where are the attorneys and the Justice Department preparing cases? Are they doing anything? Are we going to see any grand juries? Are we going to indict anybody? And if we indict, are we going to go out and arrest anybody?

Privately, I don’t see much evidence that very much will happen. That’s not saying that I don’t think it’s true. I think Tulsi Gabbard is telling the truth, but I think it’s also being released at a point in time that’s designed to distract from what you mentioned, the Epstein problem, no doubt about it.

At the end of the day, it’s back to what President Trump promised. Accountability, transparency, good government. Can he deliver? Because in people’s eyes right now, that’s the real question. And we’ve got to give him a little more time. But after about six months, you would expect to see better. And at the end of nine or ten months in any presidential administration in the first year, you’re beginning to lose airspeed and altitude. You know, you only have so long to make your dent, so to say, in things.

Middle East Concerns

DANIEL DAVIS: Let me ask you this. As sort of the last few minutes we have here, related to what President Trump ran on and what people voted for him on was to get us out of these dumb wars, not start any new ones. And what’s going on in the Middle east right now, because it really is starting to look like not starting to look like. It’s really looking like Benjamin Netanyahu is pulling the strings for Trump.

DOUG MACGREGOR: And.

Trump’s Middle East Challenges and American Awareness

DANIEL DAVIS: And now then they. He, Trump says, “I wanted to improve relations with Syria so that we could get them part of the Abraham Accords. I wanted to get a ceasefire in the Gaza situation, get that over with. And now that I think I dealt with the Iranian situation pushed them back a couple of years, so let’s go with that.”

And instead, you have Israel attacking into Syria and then saying that instead of having a ceasefire for Gaza, they want to actually move deeper into the Gaza Strip, which seems to undermine American objectives. Do the American people see whether these things are happening? And how do they view Trump, who seems to be powerless to stop it?

The Destruction of Syria and Presidential Leadership

DOUG MACGREGOR: Well, this is the key question. How many American citizens on any given day pay much attention to what’s happening beyond their borders? I don’t think very many do. We destroyed Syria, let’s face it. That’s what we’ve been trying to do for the last 15 years. That’s not new. That started under President Obama.

Now, I don’t think Obama particularly cared about it. I think we’ve had a series of presidents. You know, I know from personal experience, President Clinton had no interest in the Balkans at all. He was dragged into the Balkans repeatedly by people that worked for him, Albright, Gore, Berger and others, and Strobe Talbot.

That’s what happens, unfortunately, especially when you’ve got a president who is not grounded in the area, in an understanding of the area, in understanding international relations. It also happens when the president’s not terribly concerned.

Now, I think President Trump may have an understanding of what you just described. He doesn’t know what to do about it. And at this point, what do you do about Syria? It’s destroyed. You know, people there are being murdered. They’re being killed. And let’s face it, Mr. Netanyahu had a real important role to play in that. He was in the forefront of removing this man, Assad, over and over and over again.

Edward Litwalk years ago said, “Why are we trying to move Assad out of northern Lebanon? You know, he’s providing some measure of stability up there. We’re better off with the Syrians there in charge than not.” No one listened to him. We got chaos. We’re seeing the same thing today in Syria.

The Greater Israel Project and Regional Tensions

Now, as part of the Greater Israel Project, they are going to control the watershed near Hebron, the Mount Hebron, and that’s fine. But they’ve got a problem with the Turks now who are very uncomfortable with this encroachment on territory and a sphere of influence that they historically have enjoyed. I don’t know what’s going to happen, but I’ve seen anything good coming out of it. Let’s be frank.

And President Trump is being led around by the CIA and Mossad and MI6 into all of these places, into this Ukrainian morass, into the Israeli morass. And then when you talk about Gaza, I’m sure that President Trump’s uncomfortable, but he doesn’t seem to have the courage to stand up and say, “That’s it, we won’t support this anymore.”

You know, you can look at the latest satellite photography and you begin to look at the statistics that are admitted through the Israeli media and the Western media. They’re totally ridiculous. What, 60,000 people killed? That’s absurd. We know that far more people have been killed and wounded. Hundreds of thousands, millions have been driven out of their homes.

And right now, President Trump is being pressured by the Israel lobby to find places to send Palestinians. So what are we going to do? We can’t deport our own illegals that need to be deported and their deportation is absolutely justified. So instead we’re going to help the Israelis remove people from their homes. It’s their home. That’s where they live. They have been there for thousands of years. They’re not illegal aliens. They didn’t migrate into the place and break the law to get there. So it’s a very depressing situation.

Economic Collapse and Israel’s Future

DANIEL DAVIS: Now, let me ask you this, Doug. So literally the last question here, you just mentioned here about your concerns of a 1789 kind of situation where a financial collapse could cause some real problems at home. In the event that your concerns turn into reality and we actually have an economic serious hardship down there, we have to retrench from overseas. What in the world would happen to Israel and its quest to dominate by military means the entire region, if all of a sudden it doesn’t have the ammunition, weapons and diplomatic support from the United States, which it has right now in unlimited, what would happen?

DOUG MACGREGOR: I think millions of Israeli Jews will go to Ben Gurion Airport and try to buy tickets on airplanes to other places, whether it’s Costa Rica, Honduras, Buenos Aires or New York City, that’s what I think would happen.

DANIEL DAVIS: Well, that would be a real problem. And maybe somebody in Israel should start thinking about that right now instead of gambling everything that the perception or the possibilities from the United States and the support and the ammunition will continue at flowing levels forever. Indefinitely, because I don’t think that’s a really good bet. That’s more like a gambler. But that’s their call to make. We’ll see what happens with it.

The Coming Economic Reality

DOUG MACGREGOR: But as always, remember the great Ben Stein. He says things continue until they stop. Yeah, he’s right. Yeah. And unfortunately we’re in that position right now. President Trump could have drawn back from the cliff. He could have walked back. Instead he said, “No big beautiful Bill. Let’s leap into the abyss.” So we’ve taken the big leap.

I don’t see it ending well. I think Nassim Taleb is right. I think gold is now the reserve currency, not the dollar. I think de dollarization is well underway. Contrary to what President Trump said recently, BRICS is in good shape. It’s roaring forward. It’s got lots of people that want to join it. And he’s trying to depict it as though it’s moribund and dead. Nothing could be further from the truth. So at this point, stand on the next to the railroad and watch the collision or crash with reality that’s about to occur.

DANIEL DAVIS: I fear that you’re going to be right on that one, too, but we’ll see. But in any case, we really appreciate you bringing light onto the truth. So if nothing else, nobody can claim they didn’t know. And so we appreciate this and we’ll look forward to that article in the American Conservative tomorrow and read it in full. Thank you very much for coming on today. Doug, always a pleasure.

DOUG MACGREGOR: By the way, it’s called “Versailles on the Potomac.”

DANIEL DAVIS: “Versailles on the Potomac.” The American Conservative. Be on the lookout for that. And we’ll see you guys soon. On the next episode of the Daniel Davis Deep Dive. Oh, sorry. Also. Thanks, Gary. We have Larry Johnson on at 3 o’clock this afternoon. “Is Russia being provoked?” Now, we’re going to go into a little bit more detail on some of the stuff we talked about here with Doug today. But get the take of Larry Johnson. Always a pleasure. And who knows what kind of shirt he’ll be wearing today. You won’t want to miss that. 3:00 today on the Daniel Davis Deep Dive. We’ll see you then.