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Can the US-Iran Peace Deal Hold? w/ John Mearsheimer & Trita Parsi (Transcript)

Read the full transcript of Switzerland with Tom Switzer podcast episode where guests John Mearsheimer and Trita Parsi discuss on the topic: “Can the US-Iran Peace Deal Hold?”, June 21, 2026.

Editor’s Note: In this episode of Switzerland with Tom Switzer, host Tom Switzer sits down with John Mearsheimer and Trita Parsi to discuss the volatile status of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding amid stalled talks and continued regional tensions. The guests analyze why the Trump administration is shifting its stance toward Israel, arguing that the need to prevent an economic catastrophe is forcing a strategic pivot. They further explore the challenges of navigating a peace process while facing resistance from within Washington and the implications of this shifting dynamic for the future of U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East.

Introduction

TOM SWITZER: Hello, I’m Tom Switzer. Always great to have your company. Now today on the program, we’re going to be asking this question: will the US-Iran memo of understanding, will that hold? And I can’t think of two better guests to address this question than John Mearsheimer from the University of Chicago and Trita Parsi, who’s from the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.

Now, I should say from the outset, both gentlemen, both John and Trita, who’ve been on this program several times, their criticisms of the Iran War have been proven remarkably prescient, and it’s great to have them on the program. John, Trita, welcome back.

TRITA PARSI: Thank you.

JOHN MEARSHEIMER: Thank you, Tom.

The State of US-Iran Talks

TOM SWITZER: John, let’s just turn to the news of the day. Talks between Iran and the United States in Switzerland, they’re stalled. Iran says it has again closed the Strait of Hormuz following continued Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon. Donald Trump, for his part, has warned that the US could attack Iran over its support for Hezbollah. And the Israelis, they’re saying they have no intention of withdrawing forces from Lebanon. John, what’s going on here?

JOHN MEARSHEIMER: Well, I think there’s no question that there is a lot of resistance to this agreement from Israel and even inside the United States. I think that Trump is getting hammered from a lot of his former supporters for agreeing to this deal, and he’s terribly frustrated as a result, and he’s lashing out at the Iranians.

Furthermore, it’s proving very difficult for him to get the Israelis to abandon southern Lebanon, and I think that’s really the key issue, getting the Israelis out of southern Lebanon. And this frustrates Trump as well. And of course, from an Iranian perspective, it’s absolutely essential that the Israelis leave southern Lebanon. So it looks like there are a lot of bumps in the road today, and I think the big question you have to ask yourself is what’s going to happen moving forward.

And my view is that Trump has no choice but to settle this conflict on the terms laid out in the Memorandum of Understanding. And if the Israelis resist, Trump will just have to steamroll them. He has no choice. There’s no alternative here. There’s no winning strategy that is an alternative, and maintaining the status quo would be a disaster.

What I think is going on here is that lots of people do not understand that what’s motivating Trump is the threat of a Great Depression, the threat that the international economy is going to go off the precipice. He has said that. He’s talked about the possibility of, quote, “an economic catastrophe.” He’s made it very clear he does not want to be the second coming of Herbert Hoover.

Trump understands what’s going on. And once you take into account those calculations, what alternative does he have but to lean really hard on the Israelis and to work with the Iranians to operationalize the Memorandum of Understanding. So I think eventually this is going to be in large part sorted out.

Trump’s Rhetoric on the Strait of Hormuz

TOM SWITZER: You give credit to Trump for at least recognizing the need to shut this conflict down lest the global economy go off the cliff. He doesn’t want to be like Herbert Hoover and triggering the Great Depression of the 1930s. I get that. But then, what do you make of Trump’s warning today? He said this on the Fox News program, that the United States could become, quote, “the guardian angel of the Strait of Hormuz,” even suggesting that America might one day assume responsibility for securing the waterway and collect tolls on the oil and the gas passing through it.

JOHN MEARSHEIMER: He’s just bloviating. This is nonsense. We just fought a war and we couldn’t take control of the strait. How is he now going to take control of the strait? This is just not going to happen. And furthermore, if he tries to take control of the strait, the war will escalate in ways that will expedite how fast we’re moving toward the precipice. He would be insane to try to take the strait. So he’s just blowing a lot of hot air today.

And this is, you know, vintage Trump. He’s frustrated. He’s getting hammered by the lobby and by Israel, as I said, and he doesn’t like to admit the fact that this is really a case of unconditional surrender. You remember he called early on for unconditional surrender, but what he didn’t understand in the beginning was that it would be us, the United States, that surrendered unconditionally, not the Iranians. And he’s frustrated by that. You can understand it. And in typical Trump fashion, he’s lashing out. But the question you have to ask yourself again is, what alternative does he have to settling this conflict?

Iran’s Position on Uranium Enrichment

TOM SWITZER: Well, Trita, the Iranian president has insisted that Tehran will never surrender its right to enrich uranium. He made these remarks over the weekend, and Trump responded by warning that Iran’s leadership — and these are his words, quote — “had better watch its mouth or America would take over the rest of the country.” I take it you agree with John that this is Trump just talking the talk, he’s not really serious, he’s just frustrated.

TRITA PARSI: Trump is talking the talk.