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Home » Diplomacy, Deterrence, and the Defense of Democracy at HISPBC (Transcript)

Diplomacy, Deterrence, and the Defense of Democracy at HISPBC (Transcript)

Read the full transcript of The Hoover Institution’s Summer Policy Boot Camp (HISPBC)’s discussion titled “Diplomacy, Deterrence, and the Defense of Democracy”… Sep 24, 2024.

Listen to the audio version here:  

TRANSCRIPT:

Opening Question on American Foreign Policy

AUDIENCE QUESTION (J.B. Lilly, University of Cambridge):
Hello, I’m J.B. Lilly. I’m an undergraduate student at the University of Cambridge. My question is for General Mathis. In terms of thinking about the next administration, over the past couple of administrations, we’ve seen capricious foreign policy decisions. You know, Trump’s decision to pull out of Syria, the Afghanistan debacle, escalation around the world during the Biden administration. And my concern is that sound foreign policy just really isn’t on the ballot. I just ask you, how do you see the future of American foreign policy when both parties are increasingly giving into isolationist narratives? There’s increasing skepticism of free trade. Trump pulled out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Biden has not rejoined it.

GEN. JIM MATTIS:
Yeah, well, and I’m no better at forecasting the future than any of you. But I would tell you, there was a British Prime Minister who put it pretty bluntly, you know, the continent has fallen, France has fallen, Denmark has fallen, it’s 1940, 1941. London’s being pulverized by bombs. And the Americans are saying, not our problem. You know, we don’t want to get involved.

We’ve always been a reluctant sheriff on the world scene, believe it or not. And Churchill’s response to his dispirited people is, just be patient. Once the Americans exhaust all the alternatives, they’ll do the right thing. Because of our background, the culture cannot be changed by any one person. We are who we are, as the Professor Stephen just put it. We are who we are.

There has always been somewhat of an isolationist strain in America. But the isolationist strain, even among our founding fathers, was, we don’t want to get into entangling alliances. We don’t want to get into Europe’s wars. But even they, in the Federalist Papers, in private discussions amongst themselves, it’s, we don’t want to get involved until it affects us. And then you can see what happened. Hitler had less confidence in us than Churchill did and saw what happened when America rose up and said, that’s it. Because America does eventually know what it stands for and does eventually know what it will not stand for.

So my point would be, for all of you here, is to breed the kind of culture that uses the strengths that were just enumerated very clearly about who we are and what we are to make certain we don’t forget our past. And here I would tell you, no matter what your major field of study is, mathematics or artificial intelligence, cyber, whatever it is, make certain that you study enough history that you can apply history. Whether it be Sunny Anna who said, you know, you’re doomed to repeat history or the guy who said history rhymes.

I will tell you that if I had it to do over again, knowing what I would face in this world as I grew up, and I was once your age, believe it or not. It was in the last millennium, admittedly. I would have studied, I would have majored in history. Because once you know how other men and women have dealt with a similar situation, either successfully or unsuccessfully, you learn from both, then you can better guide yourself. And if you do not do this, if you cannot do applied history, then you’re always going to be, it’s like you went to the florist and bought some cut flowers, then stuck them in your yard and say, now grow. They’ve got no roots. They’re going to die. Your policies will die if you cannot apply history.

I think history tells us how we get through this, whether it be post-Napoleonic Europe or post-World War II. And there’s a way to do this where the Americans return to who they are. Great question, by the way, to kick it off.

Question on Russia-China Relations

AUDIENCE QUESTION (Eli Tenenbaum, Tufts University):
Hi, my name is Eli Tenenbaum. I’m a student at Tufts University. First of all, I want to thank you all for speaking today. It’s really informative. I had more of a kind of question for both of you guys. Secretary Rice spoke about how we’re supposed to kind of eventually divorce China, Iran, and North Korea from each other, as well as Russia. Is there a way that using this kind of deterrence in diplomacy that we can essentially divorce specifically Russia and China at first because, I mean, they have the whole saying in Russian of китайцы и русские друзья на век, or Russians and Chinese friends for a century. How exactly can, you know, if they’re reunited and it feels so good, how can we get them apart?

PROFESSOR STEPHEN KOTKIN:
Good question, Eli. Okay. Eli, I know from my office at Princeton University, which he visited when he was a high school student. I taught at another institution, as you heard, for 33 years waiting for the Stanford offer.

Authoritarian regimes have trouble building alliances and alliances that work because they don’t have any trust. Trust is the coin of the realm, as Secretary Mattis said. They generally speaking don’t trust even their own elites, their own insiders, their own regimes, let alone trusting outsiders.

And so where we have alliances, and we have very strong alliances, Secretary Mattis could tell you how much we disagree inside our alliances, how much we fight inside our alliances, but at the end of the day, we’re in it together and we understand that alliances may fight, they may disagree, alliance partners, but at the end of the day, we’re in it together. We trust each other and we do the right thing.

Authoritarian regimes have difficulty getting to that point. I won’t give you all the applied history that Secretary Mattis says you do need to know, and I agree with that, except to say that, as you know from World War II, the Axis powers were a formal alliance, but did not coordinate, fight together, and as a result of which, they went down separately because they weren’t really that much together.

In the case of Russia-China, there are a couple of pieces.