India’s Rise to Global Geopolitics: Abhijit Chavda (Full Transcript)

And between the 18th century and 1947, India’s GDP fell to about 2% of the world’s GDP. And in 1947, India’s life expectancy was approximately 32 years. So, you can imagine what they did to India.

And now India is rising geopolitically and economically. So, after 1947, there was a significant period where India’s growth stagnated. It was called the Nehruvian rate of growth 2%, 3%, 4% per year. So, India could not achieve its potential for a very long time.

Then in 1992, India instituted certain economic reforms. India was forced to do that. And the economy was opened up. And that’s when India’s growth story started. So, it took about 60 years, roughly, for India’s GDP to reach $1 trillion.

Then it took another seven years for India’s GDP to reach $2 trillion. As of today, India’s GDP is about $3.5 trillion. India has overtaken lots of countries and is now number 5 in the entire world when it comes to the rankings of the nation by GDP. So, that’s where India stands today.

Now, if India grows at 6% per year, then by 2047, India will have reached $12 or $13 trillion of GDP, which is nearly where China is today, roughly, give or take.

And if India grows at 8% per year, then by 2047, India will have reached or surpassed the $20 trillion mark. So, India’s GDP is the only GDP — India’s economy is the only economy that is projected to keep growing in the coming years and decades. Every other economy is currently going into a recession.

So, if we look at India’s geopolitical heft on the global stage, it is largely dependent on the economy and the military might also. So, in geopolitics, it’s all about your hard power. And hard power depends on the economy and military and the kind of relationships you have with other nations.

So, currently, there is one superpower in the world. People like to say that China is also a superpower. So, how do we define the term ‘superpower’? From my perspective, a superpower is a nation that can intervene militarily anywhere in the globe at 60 minutes notice. That is my definition of a superpower. And currently, only one nation fits that bill, which is the United States.

So, the US is the only superpower. And as of today, there are three great powers and other powers as well. The three great powers today are China, Russia, and India is now emerging as a great power.

So, why is India emerging as a great power? It’s because of the choices that India is making and the foreign policy that India has adopted over the past decade or so. So, historically, India’s foreign policy was based on idealism. It was based on the non-alignment and India essentially refused to pursue its own national interests.

In the 1950s, India was offered a permanent seat on the UN Security Council three times, and India refused that. In the early 1960s, India was offered nuclear weapons technology by President Kennedy of the US and the Indian government, the leadership rejected that offer.

And India shunned many such opportunities in the 1950s, 60s, and onwards to become a great power. And India’s government refused to unleash the true potential of the nation and help the nation grow at a rapid pace.

Understand this, in 1947, Japan was completely destroyed at the end of the Second World War. India was also not in good shape, but India had a functioning government. India was not destroyed by war. And yet, if you look at the trajectories of the two nations, they are very divergent.

So, Japan was able to grow very fast and India did not grow to its full potential. So, after the 1990s, India’s growth started. Then after essentially the 2010s, India started pursuing a foreign policy that is aligned with its market interest.

So, these are the reasons why India is now becoming a relevant global power, a great power in the geopolitical stage, because India is aligning itself with other nations. So, India is a member of multiple coalitions, so to say, groupings of nations. There is BRICS, which is Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

There is the SCO, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which has Russia, China, India and certain Central Asian nations. There is also the Quad Grouping, which is four nations, India, the US, Japan and Australia.

So, India is playing significant roles in a multitude of important organizations. And India, if you look at the geography, it is a God gifted geography. India dominates the Indian Ocean region. So, geography also tells you how a nation will perform on the geopolitical stage.

So, India’s geography, from one sense, it is not very good because it is surrounded by not very friendly nations, but India has the entire Indian Ocean at its disposal. So, because of this, India can become a great maritime power, a Rimland power from Mackinder perspective. And we have a Prime Minister whose policies are very dynamic and we have a very strong Foreign Minister, External Affairs Minister, Dr. Jayashankar, who has effectively put forth India’s perspective on the global stage.

So, these are the reasons, along with the economic growth, that have propelled India into a position of being a geopolitical great power. And India is projected to rise.

Now, let’s look at future projections. If we have to compare, see, people have been saying that this is the Chinese century. But that’s what we’ve been hearing for the past decade, that the 21st century is going to be the Chinese century. Of late, we are hearing that it’s going to be the Asian century.

So, why has this shift happened? It’s because of the demographic problems in China. So, the Chinese instituted a one-child policy in the 1970s onwards. And because of that, now, the total fertility rate has dropped to 1.1. So, for a sustainable population, the state population, you know, size, you need 2.1 to be at the TFR. In the case of China, it’s 1.1 now. So, that population is declining.

By 2100, China’s population will be projected to become around 700 million people. So, that’s roughly half of what it is today. And as the population declines, it will grow older.

So, by 2050, China’s population, average age of the population is projected to be around 58 years. So, the average Chinese person in 2050 will be 58 years old. And corresponding in India, it’s going to be 37 years. So, that’s a generation difference.

So, India is going to have the demographic dividend, but China’s demographic dividend has already gone. So, China is, if you look at the Chinese economy, it is now not growing the way it was supposed to grow. It’s going to get 3%, 4%, maybe 5% per year. And the two engines that were supposed to take China to superpower status, the Belt and Road Initiative and [indiscernible] are now no longer really functional, because the various nations that were participating in this are no longer that interested.

And this has to do with the 2019 pandemic that came out of China. So, because of this, the Chinese growth engine has stopped. And China is now no longer projected to surpass the US as the world’s biggest economy in this century.

And now today, if you look at the economic projections, the only nation that is projected to possibly surpass the US in the 21st century is India. So, if India gets its act together, it’s going to be an Indian century.

So, there is a huge opportunity for India. There are big problems also because other nations will not want India to rise. You have to understand that. Geopolitics is a cutthroat game. And we already have an established superpower. And when you are a superpower and you have all the power in the world, you are jealous of it and you will jealously guard it.

So, there is something called the Thucydides Trap. It is something that the Greek historian Thucydides wrote about in his account of the Peloponnesian War, which happened two and a half thousand years ago.

So, according to this concept, when you have an established power, which is threatened by the rise of a new power, then war is inevitable. So, right now we have three powers that are now rising. That is India, that is Russia, that is China. And India is the one that seems to have a sustainable rise.

So, from the perspective of the US, it makes sense for them to try to engineer a fight between these three emergent powers. Let them fight amongst each other, so that our power remains safe. So, there is the possibility of a Thucydides Trap kind of situation emerging in the 21st century.

We are seeing very rapid geopolitical changes right now. And as we know, in the BRICS, a coalition of nations, the weakest link is China. Because China has boundary issues, border issues with almost everybody. It renames the names of places in Arunachal Pradesh, in other parts of India. It also renames the names of places in Russia. The port of Vladivostok, the island of Sakhalin, the peninsula of Sakhalin, all that.

So, China is a nation that has expansionist ambitions, which makes it the weakest link in the BRICS grouping. So, the great existing power, the US, would like to leverage these pressures within BRICS and try to make the coalition non-sustainable.

Just like we have SAARC, the South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation, which is not functioning anymore because of the presence of Pakistan. Similarly, BRICS could become non-viable because of the presence of China.

So, this is one of the problems that the Chinese would face and the BRICS coalition would face. So, right now, there is a possibility of the emergence of a multipolar world order, not just one major power, but multiple poles and possibly a bifurcation of the global system, the economic and financial system also.

Maybe the emergence of a new currency, maybe a BRICS currency, maybe the Chinese Yuan, maybe the Russian Ruble, maybe the Indian Rupee. So, a lot is happening right now and a lot of uncertainty is there.

So, from India’s perspective, if India gets its act together, if India has the right leadership, then India can make this the Indian century. And for that, India will need to ensure that for the next decade at least, possibly for two decades, India should not get embroiled or entangled in any military confrontation with any great power.

If India can ensure this and if India can focus on the economic, then this is guaranteed to be the Indian century. When it comes to the next superpower, right now, we have only one superpower and what can happen most likely is that the 21st century will be a multipolar century.

There will not be a single superpower or two superpowers. You may have three or four great powers. The emergence of a new superpower at this stage seems unlikely. Of course, anything can happen. We have seen this happen multiple times in World History. The sudden emergence of a new empire that happens.

But as things stand right now, it looks like the 21st century could be the century of multi-polarity, multiple great powers and no one superpower. The US is certainly declining right now. Its influence is declining, it’s waning, it’s moving away from Afghanistan, it’s moving away from the Middle East region, from Saudi Arabia, Iran and other parts of the world.

So, we are seeing a decline of US power and the growth of India, China, Russia. China is not — its growth is not sustainable. Russia is limited by its population, not by the territory and India has the demographic dividend.

So, that is the situation that we are in right now. I personally don’t see the emergence of a new superpower anytime soon, but certainly great powers are emerging. India is one of them and if we play our cards right, by the end of this century, India will most likely be the largest economy in the world and possibly by that time, a superpower.

So, that is how the geopolitical game could go and I will conclude with that.

Thank you very much.

Want a summary of this talk? Here it is.

SUMMARY:

In his TEDx talk, titled “India’s Rise to Global Geopolitics,” Abhijit Chavda delves into the evolution of India’s influence on the global stage. He begins by underscoring India’s historical significance, pointing to the advanced Saraswati Sindhu civilization that once thrived, highlighting its urbanization, technological prowess, and economic prosperity. He contrasts this with the impact of British colonization, which led to India’s decline and stagnation, followed by a slow recovery post-independence.

Chavda emphasizes the interplay between a nation’s economy and its geopolitical influence, highlighting that India’s recent economic growth has been propelling its return to prominence. He identifies the linkage between economic prowess and military might, which define a nation’s hard power, with the United States currently serving as the sole superpower.

The speaker outlines the emergence of India as a geopolitical great power, driven by its foreign policy alignment with market interests. He underscores India’s active participation in coalitions such as BRICS, SCO, and the Quad Grouping, as well as its strategic geographic advantage in the Indian Ocean region.

Chavda delves into demographic considerations, comparing India and China. He notes China’s demographic challenges due to its aging population resulting from the one-child policy. In contrast, India’s younger population positions it advantageously for a potential demographic dividend.

While acknowledging the rise of multiple great powers, including India, China, and Russia, the speaker explores the idea of a multipolar world order. He introduces the concept of the Thucydides Trap, highlighting the potential for conflict between established and rising powers. Chavda considers the possibility of a non-sustainable coalition within BRICS due to China’s expansionist ambitions, echoing the volatility of geopolitical dynamics.

In conclusion, Chavda envisions India’s trajectory towards becoming a major global player, emphasizing the need to avoid military confrontations and maintain economic growth. While acknowledging the uncertainty inherent in geopolitics, he suggests that, given the right leadership and actions, India could potentially lead a multipolar world order by the end of the century.

In summary, Chavda’s talk sheds light on India’s historical rise, economic resurgence, and strategic positioning, offering insights into the complexities of global geopolitics and the potential role India may play in shaping the 21st century world order.

For Further Reading:

TRANSCRIPT: The Next Global Superpower Isn’t Who You Think – Ian Bremmer

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Capt. Raghu Raman: The 32-Minute MBA From Indian Streets (Transcript)

R Madhavan’s Speech on India in 2030 at Harvard University (Full Transcript)

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