Transcript: The Next Mayor of New York? – Olivia Reingold on TRIGGERnometry

And all of a sudden everyone went to me, oh, do you know who the next mayor in New York is going to be? And they went, Zohran Mamdani. I’m like, I’ve never heard of it. What about Eric Adams? What about Cuomo, who I’ve heard of? What about the other candidates?

So let’s talk about that because I think that’s very important so that people get an understanding of who this individual is.

OLIVIA REINGOLD: Absolutely. So it reminds me a lot of 2016 leading up to the primary. Zohran was not, polling said that Cuomo, the former governor of New York, Andrew Cuomo, this is a guy who once was talked about as a potential presidential candidate. So polling was showing that Andrew Cuomo, he had this in the bag.

And yet I really felt like it was going to be Zohran. I mean, I would be on the subway and all the cool people, they were carrying “Hot Girls for Zohran” bags. Okay. It became a huge trend on social media to post his support. He was getting all these endorsements that typically would go to someone like Cuomo.

But yeah, a year ago he was polling at 1% and just had this meteoric rise.

A Privileged Background

So who is Zohran Mamdani? Well, as a person, he comes from a very privileged family, which is ironic because he’s become this champion of the working class. But his mother, you might have heard of her, her name is Mira Nair. She was the director of The Namesake, Monsoon Wedding, I think is what it’s called. These really successful films.

And so, yeah, his mom is this successful director. The dad is the Columbia University professor, and he was born in Uganda, lived in South Africa for a little bit, moves to New York City and he moves to Queens. He lives there for a little less than two years and decides he’s going to run for the State House.

And even in that race, he ran against an incumbent who had been on the job for a decade. And, you know, he was the underdog then. That’s the main thread of Zohran’s entire career is he’s always been the underdog and he’s always made the impossible happen.

And so he won his state House seat by a couple hundred votes. And when he was in the State House, well, there’s something we haven’t gotten to yet, which is the real connective tissue of his politics is Israel and Palestine.

And so his main bill that he introduced in the state legislature was an act that was intended to penalize nonprofits that might have had connections to settlements in the West Bank. And he has said over and over again in interviews that “Palestine is why I got into politics.”

FRANCIS FOSTER: Yeah, okay, now you’re getting interested.

OLIVIA REINGOLD: Yeah.

Palestine as a Driving Force

FRANCIS FOSTER: Yeah, no, I was interested before, but that is a pretty bold statement because that’s not about what’s going on in New York. I understand if you’ve come from a left-wing persuasion, which I have some empathy for, I’ll be honest. And you see, you know, poor people struggling. You go, that’s why I got into politics. Look, that makes sense. But “Palestine is why I got into politics.” That’s nothing to do…

OLIVIA REINGOLD: It is, it is interesting, especially because, you know, a talking point that a lot of his supporters say in response to how much he is pressed on Israel, they say, guys, he’s not running to be mayor of Tel Aviv.

And yet when he talks about this issue, there are so many things he could say about the domestic impact. I mean, I think October 7th changed New York City. It just feels different, I think, to a lot of Jewish New Yorkers. And yet he hardly ever talks about the real implications here. When he releases statements, it’s genuinely all about foreign policy.

But, yeah, so when he was in college, he went to a pretty fancy school called Bowdoin. Now it costs nearly $100,000 a year. He co-founded the school’s chapter of Students for Justice in Palestine, which is a pretty radical group. After October 7, it released a statement that was basically a condemnation of Israel.

So, yeah, this is another topic on which he has attempted to moderate on. But when you go back to his past, he really comes at it from this radical academic history.

A Talented Politician

FRANCIS FOSTER: And so he was in the State House, he got elected. He was an underdog, which, by the way, and I think we need to talk about this as well. Whatever we think about him, this marks him out as a very talented politician.

OLIVIA REINGOLD: Absolutely, absolutely. Yeah. I saw a clip recently. I mean, as we’ve said, I read all of his tweets. I have gone so deep on this man’s life. I have a spreadsheet of people whose doors I aspire to knock on in Uganda, where he was born.

And he has made me laugh. He’s made me think. I saw an amazing clip of him recently where there was this heckler who, I know that guy, too. He goes to every Zohran event and just yells at him. He was yelling at Zohran. He was yelling, “Communists. You’re a communist.”

Zohran was getting on a Citi bike, which is the New York City, you know, not free, but it’s a cheap bike service. And he was getting on a city bike, and this guy’s yelling, “Communists.” And Zohran turns and he’s like, “It’s pronounced cyclists.”

And what, yeah, what can you say? The charisma is next level. And I do think that helps explain so much of the overnight success is charisma and positivity.

It’s interesting because it’s kind of an inverse in some ways of Trump, of populism on the right where he is. Zohran is tapping into this class grievance. Like I said, he champions himself for the working class. And yet a lot of people make comparisons to Obama.

A lot of people, when they talk to me about Zohran, they use the word hope. “He gives me hope.” And so, yeah, I think there’s grievance under the surface, but he is always smiling. In the last debate that he had with Andrew Cuomo and the Republican candidate, he smiled through the whole thing. He was obviously really frustrated. So even when he’s frustrated, he’s just, he’s smiling always.

The Smile Question

KONSTANTIN KISIN: Does that work? Because it might be just a British-American thing, but when I see someone who’s being heavily criticized and they smile through it, that makes me think that person is inauthentic. Because if you call me a dick to my face, I’m not going to be like, you know what I mean? Right? I might be serious or I might take it on, or I might. But does that work here?

OLIVIA REINGOLD: Right?

The Challenges Ahead

OLIVIA REINGOLD: It’s hard to say. I will say in that debate it was getting really intense. It was a smile, but it was getting really intense. But I think that cracks are already starting to show, like on the topic of Israel.

He often uses the talking point that “I want to be the mayor of New York City for all New Yorkers, even those who disagree with me on the topic of Israel.” But when he’s pressed on it, he kind of can’t really answer, well, how are you going to protect Jewish New Yorkers against anti-Semitism if you’re convinced that anti-Zionism is not anti-Semitism, like in most or if not all instances.

So I think if he is elected mayor, I think the thing about Zohran is he’s an excellent campaigner. And in some ways his primary campaign had way more energy than now the general election campaign has had because everyone who was helping him organize, they love this idea of the underdog.

And so we’ll see if he’s elected, if he is able to. I think the frustration is going to come through because he’s going to have to build a moderate coalition. And already this activist wing that has really supported him, there’s this organization, the Democratic Socialists of America, which is becoming an increasingly important force in American politics. I think they’re probably going to butt heads eventually. But is this smile working? I think so far, yeah.

Mamdani’s Core Policy Promises

KONSTANTIN KISIN: The reason I ask is, culturally, Britain and America are very different. I think that’s part of it. So in terms of policies that actually affect the lives of the overwhelming majority of New Yorkers, what are his central beliefs and promises?

OLIVIA REINGOLD: So he would say his campaign is all about affordability, that his signature promises are a rent freeze. Asterisks, it’s only to rent stabilized units, which is about 40% of all rental housing in New York. So that’s the first thing, a rent freeze.

Fast and free buses. So he wants to take the New York City bus system, make it free. And then he says making it free is also going to make it faster. That’s what he says with that. And then the other signature promise would be free childcare for children under six. So it’s a lot of, if you’re noticing a common theme, it’s free or subsidized services.

KONSTANTIN KISIN: And what about, I mean, you say statistically speaking, crime is down. In Europe, we keep being told crime is down in London. Crime is not down in London. If you walk around, it’s not down. People are getting mugged all the time. Phones stolen, stuff.

Take a snapshot, right? When I go to New York, I don’t walk around going, this place feels like it’s getting safer every day. And we come there a couple of times every year. You don’t feel safe walking around at night in very wealthy parts of New York. So I suppose the question is, why is his message of free stuff resonating in a city that’s experiencing increasing levels of disorder and lack of safety?

The Affordability Crisis

OLIVIA REINGOLD: Yeah. It’s interesting because I’ve heard interviews where Zohran says, or actually it’s really with his team. I’ve heard his team speak candidly, that the polling was showing when he was considering a run for mayor, polling was showing that the number one issue New Yorkers cared about was safety. That is the message that Cuomo ended up going with.

And Zohran had this impulse, no, we really need to focus on affordability. And ultimately, that was totally the right decision. And it’s really interesting because the stereotypical Zohran voter is they probably make $100,000 to $140,000 a year. They live probably in Brooklyn or gentrifying parts of Queens and have a college degree. And you might ask why.

KONSTANTIN KISIN: Yeah, sorry, the reason I’m going to interrupt you is that might sound like a caricature from a Mamdani critic who wants to peg him as a fake voice of the people. He doesn’t actually care. Can you put some stats on it? Do we know how it breaks down?

OLIVIA REINGOLD: Oh, okay. Yeah, I guess I was trying to talk about the actual caricature, but let me think about what do I know about his actual coalition? I don’t think I have stats on, I mean, his coalition includes Jewish New Yorkers. He and Cuomo are actually kind of breaking even on Jewish New Yorkers.

I think he does, his best bracket, though, is probably, I think the range is like $100,000 to $150,000 is the strongest bracket. But he’s polling competitively in all, I guess that’s why I’m struggling to limit.

KONSTANTIN KISIN: That’s why I interrupted you, because when you say a stereotypical voter, it sort of makes it sound like that’s the bulk of his base. Whereas what you’re saying is that is an area he does very well in. But he does well with pretty much every group in New York. Is that fair?

OLIVIA REINGOLD: Yeah. The caricature of the Zohran voter, that caricature of the Zohran voter, of someone who makes $100,000 a year, lives in Brooklyn, et cetera, they are, at first, they were kind of his entire coalition. These are people who are members of the Democratic Socialists of America, just like he is.

But increasingly, his coalition has become really comprehensive. Where he is, polling is showing that he’s starting to crack into Cuomo’s base. People that the Cuomo camp is relying on. So we’re talking about black voters, people who live in public housing in New York, Asian voters. I mean, every demographic Mamdani is basically going head to head with Cuomo on.

The Cost of Living Crisis

FRANCIS FOSTER: And it’s interesting, you talk about affordability and the reason people become successful is, people can talk about the smile, we can talk about the charisma. And the guy’s got charisma to burn. Let’s just be honest about that. He’s super likable. The smile leaves. But I’m British, like we said.

But one of the things is when people resonate, it’s for a very particular reason. And you said affordability. And I’m going to be honest with you, we’re doing all right at Trigonometry. I feel, look at the shirt, look at the buttons. But I don’t feel rich in New York. I think if I lived in New York, I would be like, I look at rents. Rents are dementedly high.

OLIVIA REINGOLD: It’s getting dire. It’s getting dire in New York City where when someone asks me for a dollar, I’m like, I know this doesn’t make any sense to you, but I need this dollar.

So, yeah, I guess what I was trying to get at with that stereotype of a voter, I think something that is confounding to people who maybe live in a city where rent is not $4,000 to $7,000 for a hole. New York City is one of the only cities in the world where you can make $150,000 a year and you need to get two roommates and eating or getting a burrito from Chipotle is like a big night out.

It’s become insane where to live within Manhattan. I mean, I need to look for a new apartment soon, so I’m sharp on these numbers and it’s really hard to find. I would say you probably need to pay like $5,000 to $6,000 for a studio to live in any neighborhood that is considered cool in New York City. So it’s become the fastest group that is fleeing New York City are white collar workers, people who are making $200,000 to $300,000 a year.

FRANCIS FOSTER: I mean, which is just insane because if you said to most people, you’re going to go to college, you’re going to come out, you’re going to get a job over $100,000 a year, you’d be like, quids in. I’ve done it. High fives, Mum and Dad, we’ve all made it. But the reality is you’re kind of above the breadline in New York, which is, he’s been very interesting about landlords.

OLIVIA REINGOLD: Yeah.

FRANCIS FOSTER: And I think that’s really resonating. I think we should talk about that.

OLIVIA REINGOLD: Yeah. So I think that this is why the DSA is not just taking off in New York. It’s taking off in cities that also have a cost of living crisis where white collar workers, yeah, you can pay your rent every month and okay, maybe you’re saving, I don’t know, $75 one month. The next month you’re probably more in debt.

That is why it’s resonating so much with these upwardly, people who in a different era, maybe only five, ten years ago, before COVID would have been considered upwardly mobile. Arrive in a city like New York and don’t see, certainly don’t see a path towards home ownership.

KONSTANTIN KISIN: Well, right. I mean, think about just the numbers. If you earn $100,000 a year and you rent a studio for $5,000 or $6,000 a year, you’re spending $72,000 a year just on rent. Well, it’s hard to live because you’ve got other expenses, forget about saving anything.

OLIVIA REINGOLD: Right. And then there’s taxes and yeah. And so I think even if you have roommates, whatever, I think that, so Zohran is a millennial. And I think that who he’s resonating most with are these people who are really struggling to kind of break into the hallmarks of adulthood like home ownership, marriage, kids.

He’s also of course, very popular with Gen Z, but it’s these millennial activists within the DSA who have been really crucial in getting him over the finish line and in their just immense canvassing, door knocking operation.

The Rent Freeze Proposal

FRANCIS FOSTER: And what is he going to do to tackle this rental, let’s call it what it is, it’s a rental crisis. It’s simple. It’s that simple in New York. What is his actual policy?

OLIVIA REINGOLD: So he is proposing a rent freeze for all rent stabilized units. And in New York that’s 44% of all rental housing. And the next question is, well, can he do that?

It’s unclear. It’s unclear because basically how the city institutes rent freezes, which mayors in the past or other administrations have instituted, it’s through a board that the mayor can appoint if there’s a vacancy, but it’s not a direct action, if that makes sense. The board is responsible for instituting whether or not they institute a rent freeze or how much rent goes up by.

FRANCIS FOSTER: So that’s really interesting. So it’s not completely in his power because we’ve talked to former guests about Mamdani and they’ve said, look, he can say he’s going to implement all these policies, but unless the governor of the state releases the funds, then he’s kind of tied, isn’t he, really?

The Political Reality

OLIVIA REINGOLD: Yeah. Yeah. So the other policy, another policy he’s proposed is a millionaires tax. There are question marks on a lot of his policies, like the childcare or his massive Department of Community Safety that would augment, slash, replace parts of the police department. How is he going to pay for these things?

Well, it might not surprise you that the answer in most instances is an increase in taxes. And you’re exactly right. He needs collaboration from the state government. He needs collaboration from the state legislature. And then he would need the governor to sign off on that too.

And the governor is Kathy Hochul. She’s a Democrat, but really more of an establishment Democrat that now is having to navigate this herself, this huge populist movement in New York City. So she’s up for reelection in 2026 and she’s already endorsed Mamdani. Mamdani has not endorsed her for her reelection campaign and she said she doesn’t want to raise taxes.

And that’s, I mean, that’s a huge political liability for her going into 2026. So long story short is that a lot of tricky politics. It’s very uncertain that he would be able to get that done.

FRANCIS FOSTER: That puts him in a very precarious position because effectively he might well be writing checks, in order to quote Top Gun, that his body can’t cash.

OLIVIA REINGOLD: Yeah, yeah. No, the critique certainly holds that his vision is unrealistic.

The Mobility of Wealth

KONSTANTIN KISIN: Well, one of the things as well is for the reasons that we just discussed, a millionaire in New York is not necessarily what people think of as the super wealthy. I’ve been to New York, there’s a lot of people who are more super wealthy than that, let’s put it that way.

But the thing is those people are so incredibly mobile, particularly within the United States, that the risk is, I suppose, that a lot of them will simply move somewhere else and take their businesses and wealth generation with them. Does he have an answer to that or is he like, I’m glad they’re leaving?

OLIVIA REINGOLD: So he doesn’t believe that that is going to happen. He says that he really diminishes the amount, the percentage increase in taxes upon millionaires. He’s suggesting a 2% increase. He’s like, guys, they’re not going to leave over 2%.

Well, I spoke to not millionaires, but actually billionaires, people whose impact on local tax revenue is far, far more impressive. And these people are already so close to packing up and moving to Florida, moving to places like Texas. And a lot of these guys, they say that they’re getting pressure from their employees, that their employees, those are the millionaires.

So 2%. I mean, I think it’s also just a quality of life thing too, where the parks can be so scary and sketchy. Just basic quality of life issues regarding safety. The incentives to stay in New York have already cracked.

The Irony of Capitalism’s Capital

FRANCIS FOSTER: And what it talks about especially. And the reason I find New York so fascinating, this particular example is that you have got the most capitalist city in the world.

OLIVIA REINGOLD: Yeah.

FRANCIS FOSTER: In the world. The hub of business, finance, banking. You think of finance and banking, you think Wall Street.

OLIVIA REINGOLD: Right.

FRANCIS FOSTER: And then you’ve got this guy.

OLIVIA REINGOLD: Yeah, yeah. And I think that it, I mean it’s almost poetic. There’s a huge irony there that you just pointed out. And I think it’s because income inequality is so severe in New York City. It’s so severe where, I mean there’s hardly a middle class there.

The average salary. Now I’m like, maybe I should look this up. But I guess I should say to raise a family within New York City. So that includes residential Queens, that includes the Bronx. Anywhere in New York City you need over $300,000 for a family of four. And that’s just to kind of break even.

KONSTANTIN KISIN: Yeah. You’re not living in luxury. A lot of people listen to this. Gone, 300 grand. That sounds like a lot. But what you’re saying is in New York now, for a family of four, you’re just about going to get by.

OLIVIA REINGOLD: Yeah, yeah. So the middle class in New York is totally hollowed out. You have a situation where the people who are just getting by are white collar workers. And then of course, there are the people who are actually just living in poverty.

So, yeah, it’s very ironic that New York, the center of capitalism, has become the center of this fight. But in some ways, I think that helps explain why it’s become the center of the fight. You know, people like Bill Ackman, who’s a billionaire, Dan Loeb, another billionaire who runs a hedge fund, they have become.

KONSTANTIN KISIN: Huge.

OLIVIA REINGOLD: Sources of ire for Mamdani supporters, where a lot of DSA members, they’re really familiar with. There are all these names in New York City of just local, wealthy families that people really have it out for in New York City.

The Celebration of Violence

FRANCIS FOSTER: This comes as no surprise when you think about the murder of Brian Thompson by Luigi Mangione.

OLIVIA REINGOLD: Yeah.

FRANCIS FOSTER: Which itself was obviously awful and horrific. But then the celebration that came afterwards and how Mangioni was turned into a sex symbol by some people. It was grotesque.

OLIVIA REINGOLD: Yeah. And the DSA, this group that has really propelled Mamdani. I mean, they have had really radical reactions to all these instances where after Joe Biden was diagnosed with cancer, you know, I have access to the DSA’s internal message board and I read it all the time.

And basically, anytime there’s one of these events, you know, sometimes there are people who are outright celebratory, but at the very least, it’s people who feel like it’s complicated. And obviously that relates back to October 7 too, where Mamdani, Jewish New Yorkers are a part of his coalition.

Cuomo is polling better with Jewish voters, but only by a few percentage points. And Mamdani has had a lot of Jewish supporters very visibly within his campaign. But when you look at, well, who are these Jewish voters and what do they believe? These are often really radical groups.

Like one that shows up to everything he does is Jews for Racial and Economic Justice. And after October 7, they released a statement that said that Hamas’s terrorist attack was “unjustifiable, but not unprovoked.” So that kind of sounds like a justification.

KONSTANTIN KISIN: Right.

OLIVIA REINGOLD: And so there are these. There’s this anti-Zionist bend that’s really active within Mamdani’s coalition. But I think you’ve rightly picked up on this thread of kind of anger and sometimes justification for violence that is active on the far left and is not a part of Mamdani’s coalition, too.

A National Movement?

KONSTANTIN KISIN: And do you think his success is something that will be replicated in other cities in America that will appeal to people beyond New York City, where, you know, the housing issue is not as bad in most other places in the US but it is very bad in some places in the US and do you think you’re going to start to see things like him in California, perhaps in D.C. maybe and other places?

OLIVIA REINGOLD: Yeah, I think the only uncertain dynamic is just as we said, Zohran is so charismatic. Where you really, that’s the unknown is will there be someone as charismatic in a city like Houston or San Francisco?

But you’re already starting to see people run in his image. So the DSA is highly organized. They are mapping out school board races in the San Antonio suburbs or water referendums, you know, outside of Pittsburgh. So they are already talking about the midterms, certainly, which are just around the corner, and then even 2028.

So the DSA, they have plans to run candidates in major races across the country. And you’re already seeing, you know, on election day, it’s not just Zohran’s big day, but there are similar candidates in cities like Minneapolis. Arguably, the mayor of Boston is already kind of in this vein. So, yeah, there are already. His impact is already felt.

Economic Populism Without Identity Politics

FRANCIS FOSTER: You know, it’s. Look, I don’t agree, but it’s a smart play. It’s a smart play because when I looked at the Democrats, when they embraced identity politics and then the Labour Party in our country, I was like, this ain’t going to fly. This ain’t going to fly with white working class people. It ain’t going to fly with people who are more naturally conservative. It ain’t going to work. There is. It just isn’t. It’s not going to appeal to enough people.

I look at this and you talk about the inequality and the gap between rich and poor, and it’s growing all the time. And then you’re talking about cost of living crisis, inflation, housing crisis, all of this. And you go for the left. These are very, very rich pickings.

OLIVIA REINGOLD: Oh, absolutely. And I think that in America, there’s so much to gain for whomever deploys economic populism without the identity politics. And Zohran, I think, has had so much success because for the most part, he really has avoided the identity politics.

He, when he talks about his plan for community safety, he’s not really talking about an epidemic of black and brown men being shot. You know, language that we heard in 2020. He is trying to do a new brand of kind of post-BLM politics, but there are still these hints of identity politics, you know, on the debate stage.

It came out his plans to support trans New Yorkers. Immigration is obviously going to continue to be a huge thing, and there could be a potential clash with ICE. And so, yeah, it’s unclear to me if he’s really moved on from this. How he handles public safety and police will continue to be a big test. But I think you’re right. The economic issue of it is huge. There’s a huge potential upside there.

FRANCIS FOSTER: And it’s. I look. And there are people on the right and hopefully there are people in the Republican Party who are watching this as well. Look, you need to be addressing this.

OLIVIA REINGOLD: Absolutely.

FRANCIS FOSTER: You need to be talking about this, because this isn’t an issue that has been, you know, created artificially in the corridors of Columbia University.

OLIVIA REINGOLD: Right.

FRANCIS FOSTER: This is something that affects practically every single person in this country. And it’s a matter of urgency.

The Death of the Establishment

OLIVIA REINGOLD: Yeah. I’ve heard this talking point often from conservative commentators that, you know, oh, we hope Zohran is mayor. We hope he’s mayor because he’s going to make our job easy because we’re going to run on him in 2026 during the midterms. He’s going to make our job easy for the presidential race in 2028.

I think that’s totally misguided. I mean, it could be true if he gets in and then is just completely delinquent as a mayor and just lets the city fall into disrepair. But he is a really serious person, and at least if he manages to please his constituents in New York, I mean, I just think that’s totally, totally misguided.

It’s also how people in 2016 responded to Trump, though. You know, they said, yeah, we hope that he’s the nominee because. Or that’s why they thought they had it in the bag in 2016. That’s why they thought Hillary was so. Her win was so certain. And they obviously came to regret that.

And there’s just so much overlap in the way that people discount Zohran and the way that they discounted Trump. There’s always discussion about the donors. The donors are never going to get behind Zohran. Well, he hasn’t needed them. You know, it really, in many ways, has been a grassroots campaign.

Of course, now he has many super PACs behind him. And increasingly he does have institutional force behind him. But yeah, it’s a populist movement and so of course the establishment doesn’t take it seriously and is discounting it. But I think to me, what this represents, it’s not just about the meteoric rise of Zohran Mamdani. I think it’s also a story about the death of the establishment too.

The Executive Challenge

KONSTANTIN KISIN: The interesting thing, I think your analysis and comparison with Trump is very apt given the way that some people are responding. The difference I think is, and correct me if I’m wrong, I say take AOC for example. Great campaigner, very charismatic, gets elected, but she’s not in an executive position.

Mamdani as mayor is running one of the biggest cities in the world and his success or failure will affect the brand quite significantly. Yeah, so the challenge for someone who is promising people a lot of free stuff is you have to actually then deliver the free stuff. And the question, one of the aspect of this that’s worth probably delving into as well is how much experience does he have running things?

OLIVIA REINGOLD: Well, just to get that out of the way, not very much for a time. A lot of his resume was propped up by his parents. After college, he actually had a brief rapping career that was quite successful. I don’t know if you guys knew about this. So, yeah. In terms of managing experience, what’s the…

KONSTANTIN KISIN: Biggest thing he’s run?

OLIVIA REINGOLD: I don’t think he has run anything. He hasn’t run anything.

KONSTANTIN KISIN: So this is where I think the difficulty comes in because Trump demonstrably knows how to run big organizations.

OLIVIA REINGOLD: Right, right.

KONSTANTIN KISIN: He has done his entire life with Mamdani. He clearly is very talented at campaigning, but he’s not going into a Bernie Sanders AOC kind of role. He’s going in to run a major city and that requires a skill set that we don’t really know if he has. Right, right. And yeah, you seem keen to correct me, so please do.

OLIVIA REINGOLD: Well, I guess because his credentials, he doesn’t have typical credentials, but he was a really successful organizer. He helped campaigns in the past and was meticulous about. This is the exact block that we need to target. And so he has been a really successful leader in the progressive movement.

KONSTANTIN KISIN: I’m not trying to disparage him a little bit. I’m making a very different point, which is leading a campaign does not really require a huge amount of dealing with the reality of trade offs. Totally.

OLIVIA REINGOLD: Totally.

KONSTANTIN KISIN: Right. So, for example, increasing taxes is a thing that comes with a bunch of first, second, third order consequences. And what I’m saying is I understand where some of those conservative commentators you mentioned are coming from, because their thinking is, this guy’s going to get elected. I’m going to condense it into he doesn’t know what he’s doing. Yeah, he’s going to ruin everything. That’s going to be great for us as conservatives.

OLIVIA REINGOLD: Right, right.

KONSTANTIN KISIN: Do you think that’s likely?

The Future of the Democratic Party

OLIVIA REINGOLD: I don’t. I think that unless his administration, if he were to win, is just a total flop, I just think so much of his success is based on vision. And I think that even if he fails to accomplish his agenda, I think that his supporters are going to blame that on the establishment. I think they’re just going to frame it in terms of, I don’t know how much of the blame he’ll get. I guess if he does end up failing.

But I guess I would also say that I just think that this is the future of the Democratic Party, regardless of what happens with Zohran Mamdani. I say that because in San Francisco, there was that progressive DA Chesa Boudin, who he was ousted. These ideas, not all of them have died, and they just keep bubbling up and bubbling up.

But the social justice element, I feel like that chapter has closed. But what hasn’t is really what Bernie kicked off, like in 2016, that hasn’t gone anywhere. Like, we had this moderate. I mean, I’m not quite sure how to characterize Joe Biden, but there was the Biden presidency, which was not like a DSA vibe at all.

And yet this, as income inequality just continues to grow and grow and grow. This isn’t going anywhere. So, yeah, I don’t know that Zohran Mamdani is the future of the Democratic Party, but whoever is, is going to have the same populist energy.

Democratic Socialists of America

KONSTANTIN KISIN: And let’s talk about the Democratic Socialists of America.

OLIVIA REINGOLD: Yeah.

KONSTANTIN KISIN: What is the difference between a Democratic Socialist and a communist?

FRANCIS FOSTER: Whoa.

OLIVIA REINGOLD: I guess because a Democratic socialist is slightly less revolutionary in the sense that they believe in making change within a democratic system.

KONSTANTIN KISIN: They believe in getting elected.

OLIVIA REINGOLD: Yeah, exactly. Right, Exactly.

KONSTANTIN KISIN: Anything else?

OLIVIA REINGOLD: I think that they, in some instances, they’re more comfortable with private ownership. They…

KONSTANTIN KISIN: They believe in some measure of private property.

OLIVIA REINGOLD: As I’m thinking about it now, it’s, no, they do want to dismantle capitalism. So…

KONSTANTIN KISIN: But what does that mean? What does it mean?

OLIVIA REINGOLD: I would love to ask the DSA that when you read their platform, it talks a lot about tearing down systems. It’s not quite clear to me what they would replace it with.

KONSTANTIN KISIN: Well, this is what I was getting at when I was talking about Mamdani specifically is it is one thing to organize a very effective campaign.

OLIVIA REINGOLD: Right.

KONSTANTIN KISIN: Which is about defunding, dismantling, giving things. Right. But then all of that stuff has another dimension to it, which is once you’ve dismantled things, you have to build things. Once you’ve given free stuff to people, you have to find the money somewhere for that thing to be given to people. And you can do that in the short term and do the magic tricks, but over time, it, you get to a position which just becomes unsustainable.

OLIVIA REINGOLD: Yeah.

KONSTANTIN KISIN: So that’s kind of what I’m getting at.

Vision Versus Practicality

OLIVIA REINGOLD: No, it’s fair. I think if you go back to 2016, maybe the similarities continue. Where Trump, it was so much vision and not a lot of practicality, and his first administration, I mean, the scandals just couldn’t stop coming. It was very disorganized. I think he regrets a lot of the appointments he made and then the second administration, he really came in and now is accomplishing his agenda.

But the vision and the spirit of what he represents didn’t go anywhere. So I’m just not convinced. Yeah, I think that there, of course, all signs point to Zohran struggling to accomplish his agenda, but I just think that until income inequality is addressed, I think that the appetite for someone like him only grows as well.

KONSTANTIN KISIN: It’s populism all the way down.

OLIVIA REINGOLD: Yeah, yeah. Which is why the policies, the policies don’t really matter. I think ultimately, I really think it’s vibes, the two vibes of class grievance masked with positivity. I think that that is why people are supporting Zohran, because they’re very angry about income inequality.

And it’s almost, he’s almost giving people permission to, it’s like as if MAGA wasn’t associated with bigotry and tearing people down. That’s how people on the left think of MAGA, at least. It’s as if he’s giving people permission to just be completely angry about income inequality. But they’re not bullies. Like the way that MAGA is portrayed there. It’s really a progressive anger.

FRANCIS FOSTER: Yeah, It’s a righteous anger.

OLIVIA REINGOLD: Righteous, yeah. That’s a great word for it. Yeah.

The Establishment Versus Populism

FRANCIS FOSTER: Is probably how they would frame it. And I think it’s important to say this as well. I was in Venezuela in 99 when Chavez came to power, and Chavez won a general election in Venezuela by a landslide, and it was legitimate. Now, he then went on and was absolutely awful and fixed elections and whatever else, but the reason people vote for the Mamdanis of this world is because they feel that they’ve been failed by the establishment, and in many cases that they have, and they have no other option but to go for a radical. I think we need to be honest about this.

OLIVIA REINGOLD: I think so too. And like I said, I’m not really convinced that Zohran is the future of the Democratic Party. I think in some ways it’s because I don’t know if his ambition. I don’t really think he’s someone that would enjoy being president. But whoever is, whether it’s AOC, I mean, Bernie, he’s getting up there.

But I really think that we’re on this clash of the establishment against populism again. It’s literally 2016 all over again. Except I think we’re finally hitting the tipping point where the populists have more power, where you’re seeing people like Kathy Hochul, the governor of New York, where she is endorsing Zohran because she needs Zohran’s support. She has more to gain from endorsing Zohran than Zohran has to gain.

FRANCIS FOSTER: And look, one of the things that populism does and it’s very good at, and Nigel Farage, in our own country is a maestro of, is pushing issues that were once seen as fringe by the establishment and making them mainstream and making the establishment tackle them. So, in a way, if Zohran pushes the idea of wealth inequality and actually makes the left, right, and center have discussions and start to implement policies to tackle it.

Shifting Political Yardsticks

OLIVIA REINGOLD: Yeah, yeah. I mean, you’ve already seen this since 2016, where now even the Republicans have come to accept a lot of these things that were seen as only being elements of the Democratic Party, like support for Medicare and Medicaid and elements of the social safety net, like Social Security. Now, even Republicans know that the campaign against those things is really a death sentence.

So I think that this populist bent is taking over both parties, and the yardstick has really been moved in a lot of ways. I mean, look at the issue of Israel and Palestine. That has already shifted drastically. So it’s hard to tell who’s driving the ship. Is it people like Zohran who are moving the yardstick, or does he just reflect it? I don’t know.

But so much has changed in terms of what would actually be, what would be a liability for a politician now, arguably, is a strength like these. I feel like it’s based on my reporting, based on reading all of his tweets, I think it’s fair to characterize his politics as anti-Israel. He’s really struggled to answer whether or not he believes that Israel has the right to exist as a Jewish state. Actually, he has implied no. That he has a problem with Israel, just like he has a problem with Saudi Arabia.

But he, this would have been a huge problem for any politician only a few years ago, and now this is actually an asset. Cuomo, when leading up to the primary, there were so many things that he thought were going to help him, like all these attack ads being, calling Zohran a socialist or saying he’s an anti-Semite. That’s what a lot of Cuomo supporters did to try and attack Mamdani and people who saw the attack ads, I just, I think, if anything, it informed them about Zohran and then they became Zohran voters.

American Attitudes Toward Socialism

KONSTANTIN KISIN: Yeah, that’s the interesting thing about that, is socialism, because we’re here in Texas, we got in an Uber and we met a guy who was driving, he was Spanish, and we asked him why did he come to America? And you’d never hear this in Europe because people don’t talk like this. But he was like, I don’t know, man. Just socialism isn’t for me. Right.

And this is in many ways the American, historically speaking, at least the American attitude or at least the prevailing attitude towards socialism or. But I think the current Democratic Party has moved in a very different direction, hasn’t it?

OLIVIA REINGOLD: Yeah, there was polling I saw recently from Gallup only a few months ago, it was done in August, where more Democrats actually have a favorable view of socialism than capitalism. So the number that have a favorable view of capitalism, it’s something like 40 to 46%. And then the percentage that have a favorable view of socialism is 66%.

KONSTANTIN KISIN: And what do you think they mean by socialism? Like, what is it that they support? What is it that they like with the definitions?

OLIVIA REINGOLD: Yeah, precision is important here. What is it that they like?

KONSTANTIN KISIN: Well, because, see, if you’re from Eastern Europe, when you think of socialism, you think of the Soviet Union.

OLIVIA REINGOLD: Right, right, right.

KONSTANTIN KISIN: Because it was the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. I don’t think American Democrats want the Soviet Union. Right. So what is it that they believe?

OLIVIA REINGOLD: Well, I guess because socialism has never been executed here, it’s really just a vision of a utopia. We don’t have the memory, the recent memory of socialism and the failures of it. And so I think when most Americans picture socialism, they’re like, I’m going to get to see my same doctor and it’s going to be free or I’m going to be able to afford a modest house, but the house that I want. I think they assume that, I guess what I’m describing is really a utopia.

KONSTANTIN KISIN: Well, I mean, having a house and seeing a doctor doesn’t seem that utopian to me.

OLIVIA REINGOLD: Right, right.

KONSTANTIN KISIN: So I’m not trying to be…

OLIVIA REINGOLD: No, you’re right, you’re right. I guess they picture America but like a fulfillment of the American promise and…

KONSTANTIN KISIN: Free buses and the other, free childcare and all these other things.

The American Dream and Economic Functionality

OLIVIA REINGOLD: I think they probably just picture a more functional economy, like the way that the American dream is supposed to work, where you, the days when you could be a blue collar worker and you actually could support, you could have two, three kids, you could take an annual vacation, you owned your home.

KONSTANTIN KISIN: I think that your wife could be a homemaker, et cetera. Right.

OLIVIA REINGOLD: Yeah, I think that that is what the draw. It’s not so much maybe a draw towards socialism, but just a sense that life’s capitalism, life’s hot, is not working. And so it’s people in search of an answer.

So, yeah, I think you’re right. I’m not convinced that. I think Americans, I mean, Americans, I feel like, do love to work. I think most would prefer to work if that work could afford them the American dream.

So I think that that’s more what that data reveals. I don’t think it’s people are so lazy. They just want free things. I think that maybe that’s where it’s gotten because there is so much anger. But, yeah, it’s funny. I think you’re right that they just want an economy that works.

Questions from Supporters

FRANCIS FOSTER: Before Olivia answers the final question at the end of the interview, make sure to head over to our Substack. The link is in the description where you’ll be able to see this.

KONSTANTIN KISIN: Do you think it’s likely that there will be a significant relocation of particularly financial industry elsewhere? And if so, where are they likely to go?

FRANCIS FOSTER: Do you think that the mayoral polls and the probable result in the NYC are a backlash response to the presidential elections? A big city is moving ideology in a different direction than the rest of the country? Or is it in sync?

KONSTANTIN KISIN: What do you make of the CBS Free Press merger?

OLIVIA REINGOLD: Oh.

Final Question: What We’re Not Talking About

KONSTANTIN KISIN: Olivia, great having you on. Thank you for coming. We’re going to ask you questions from our supporters in a second. But before we do, what’s the one thing we’re not talking about that we shouldn’t?

OLIVIA REINGOLD: Oh, my gosh.

FRANCIS FOSTER: Don’t say the shirt.

OLIVIA REINGOLD: What is the one thing. Oh, my gosh. I don’t. Okay, Am I allowed to think for a second? Okay, thank you.

KONSTANTIN KISIN: You’re allowed to think, Olivia.

FRANCIS FOSTER: We’re not on the socialism yet.

Ranked Choice Voting

OLIVIA REINGOLD: Okay, I’m going to go. It’s a little wonky, but ranked choice voting, arguably, that is the system of voting in which you rank candidates in order of preference. That’s how we got Zohran.

So initially, this was a system that New York instituted. New Yorkers actually voted to vote that way in primaries. Sorry. Now it’s getting so nerdy because it’s primaries, not the general election. But the idea with that, it was this progressive idea that it’s actually going to help elevate moderate voices.

And yet we ended up with Zohran Mamdani. And so New York is not the only place that has ranked choice voting. Burlington, Vermont has ranked choice voting. And you’re probably going to see a lot of people advocate for it after they saw that, you know, it was able to elevate Zohran.

KONSTANTIN KISIN: All right, thank you so much for coming on. Head on over to triggerpod.co.uk where we continue the conversation with your questions.

FRANCIS FOSTER: Our Jews in New York taking precautionary steps to begin hiding their identity, as they do in Paris, in London, ahead of Mamdani’s expected win.

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