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Diary Of A CEO Interview w/ Robert Pape – 8 Dangerous Weeks Ahead (Transcript)

In this Diary Of A CEO interview, political scientist Robert Pape tells Steven Bartlett why the 8 weeks after the US midterms may be the most dangerous of our lives, as violent populism at home, possible new US strikes on Iran, and Putin’s threatened winter escalation in Ukraine all come together. Pape explains the “escalation trap,” the 3-day plan modeled on Instant Thunder, the Insurrection Act, the risk of World War III, and the 3 firebreaks he believes can stop the spiral. Read the full transcript of this interview which was recorded on October 29, 2026 below:

The 8 Most Dangerous Weeks of Our Lives

STEVEN BARTLETT: (00:01:39 – 00:02:14) Robert Pape, every time I speak to you, I feel like I start with the same question, but it is the question that is front of mind for me, which is what the hell is going on in the world at the moment?

ROBERT PAPE: (00:02:15 – 00:03:24) What’s going on is we are getting deeper and deeper into an escalation trap and we are moving up rungs in escalation where risk is growing and we are about to enter the 8 most dangerous weeks since this war began, and they may become the 8 most dangerous weeks in our lives. We are going to see the coming together of 3 fundamentally dangerous issues.

We’re about to see the US midterms where the voting has now stopped, but we are now in the process of counting the vote, certifying the vote, and in 2 months, and it will take 2 months, seating the victors. That’s the transfer of power where the real danger zone, of political violence, what I call violent populism, is starting now. It began the moment the voting stopped and the counting began, because that’s the transfer of power.

Understanding the US Midterms

STEVEN BARTLETT: (00:03:25 – 00:03:30) Okay, so most of my audiences around the world probably won’t know, including myself, what a midterm is.

ROBERT PAPE: (00:03:31 – 00:04:02) In the presidential system in the United States, we have 4-year terms for our US presidents. Then for our Congress, we hold an election every 2 years, and we have 2 houses in our Congress. Sometimes it dovetails with the election of the president, in which case we just call it the general election. But when the president is not up for reelection, we call it a midterm, meaning midterm of the president’s term.

STEVEN BARTLETT: (00:04:02 – 00:04:09) So let me explain this to you and you tell me if I’ve got this. There is this House of Representatives and then there’s the Senate.

ROBERT PAPE: (00:04:09 – 00:04:09) That’s right.

STEVEN BARTLETT: (00:04:10 – 00:04:14) And both of them work to vote laws into power.

ROBERT PAPE: (00:04:14 – 00:04:14) That’s right.

STEVEN BARTLETT: (00:04:15 – 00:04:36) And as we stand here right now, the Republicans, Trump’s party, has a majority in both. So it’s quite easy for them to pass new laws. What you’re saying is in these midterms that are coming up, there’s a prospect that Trump might lose his power in the Senate and in the House, which would mean he wouldn’t be able to get his laws passed very easily.

ROBERT PAPE: (00:04:37 – 00:05:37) It’s not just about passing laws, Steven. It’s about a system of check and balance. The way the Constitution was set up is that the Congress and the president, and then also the Supreme Court, which is not an elected body, they check each other. So what’s supposed to moderate the policies in the United States where we don’t go to the extremes is when different parties control the Congress, and the president.

When you have the same party controlling both houses of Congress and the president, by definition, there’s very little check and balance on the president. The president can pretty much do what the president wants, especially in international affairs, but also very heavily in domestic. That’s why the president’s power is going to be severely checked if Republicans no longer control the House and the Senate.

Violent Populism and the Transfer of Power

STEVEN BARTLETT: (00:05:38 – 00:05:41) So why is this the 8th most dangerous weeks in your view?

ROBERT PAPE: (00:05:41 – 00:06:49) It’s the 8 most dangerous weeks because political violence, especially in the era of violent populism when tens of millions of Americans support political violence on both sides of the aisle, the most dangerous time is the transition of power. And we saw this 6 years ago with January 6th.

It’s important to remember that in November 2020, President Biden was elected. However, That did not prevent President Trump from taking steps to prevent that transfer of power. We saw it come to a head on January 6th, and that occurred over a 2-month process. It was when the voting stopped and the counting began, and then the certification of the votes began, and then the transfer of power.

That was the most dangerous moment that we have seen in American domestic politics since the Civil War. We are heading to a very similar situation again, and it’s worse now.

STEVEN BARTLETT: (00:06:50 – 00:06:50) How do you know?

ROBERT PAPE: (00:06:51 – 00:07:14) For 30 years, I’ve studied political violence around the world, but for the last 5 years, Steven, I have devoted myself to understanding what’s happened in the United States. We are seeing a transition of power in the context of literally this fact.

STEVEN BARTLETT: (00:07:15 – 00:07:15) What does that fact say?

ROBERT PAPE: (00:07:15 – 00:10:25) That fact is that today, as of a month ago, over 40 million Americans support the use of the US military to suppress Democratic protesters against the Trump agenda. Think of this as 40 million Americans who support political violence for Trump, And 60 million Americans, over 60 million, support the use of force to prevent Trump from being president.

I’ve been doing these national representative surveys for 5 years.