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Home » TRANSCRIPT: Morgan Housel: What You Need to Master (And Avoid) to Get Rich, Stay Rich, and Build Wealth

TRANSCRIPT: Morgan Housel: What You Need to Master (And Avoid) to Get Rich, Stay Rich, and Build Wealth

Read the full transcript of The Knowledge Project Podcast episode titled “What You Need to Master (And Avoid) to Get Rich, Stay Rich, and Build Wealth” where host Shane Parrish interviews Morgan Housel.

Listen to the audio version here:

TRANSCRIPT:

SHANE PARRISH: I want to start with a bit of a paradox. The less money we seem to have, the more risks we’re willing to take. Can you explain that to me?

MORGAN HOUSEL: Daniel Kahneman said something along the lines of, when all your options are bad, your willingness to take a risk explodes because you’ve got nothing else to lose. And I think you see this in a lot of areas in life. One that I see it all the time in, that is a big news story in the United States, I don’t know if it’s the same in Canada, but in America we spend something like $100 billion a year on lottery tickets. $100 billion, it’s massive that people spend on lottery tickets. And if you dig into who’s buying it, it’s almost exclusively poor people.

They buy the vast majority of lottery tickets. And the poorer you are, the more lottery tickets you buy. And these are some people for whom they literally can’t buy food, or they might be homeless. And whatever little money they have, they go into a 7-Eleven and buy some scratcher tickets. And you might look at that and say, you idiots, what are you doing? This is the dumbest idea I’ve ever seen. And maybe that’s the right answer. Maybe you could just stop there.

But in Kahneman’s framework, I think it starts to make a little bit more sense. If you have someone in a situation like this, who in their mind at least, they think, I can’t get a raise. I can’t build a career. I can’t get promoted. I’m kind of stuck in minimum wage job. But then buying a lottery ticket might be the only time in their life where they can say to themselves and believe, this is my literally ticket out of here. This is the only chance that I have to get ahead. And so it starts to make a little bit more sense in that situation.

And maybe you contrast that with someone who has a very high net worth. They might be like, look, I can just put all my money in treasuries and just live for the rest of my life to solve the interest. And when you have so much, you don’t need to take the risk. It comes down to perspective, right?

SHANE PARRISH: So if I could see what you see and feel what you feel, that decision would be rational.

MORGAN HOUSEL: Yeah, there’s so many things in life where you can look at other people and the decisions they make, not just in money, but for politics, their health decisions, whatever it might be, and fiercely disagree with it. But what’s easy to overlook is that if I were in your shoes and had experienced what you had, had the same family dynamic that you do, the same DNA that you do, I would do the exact same thing. This is a more important question to ask yourself.

Like, what financial decisions would I make differently if I were born in a different era, born to different parents, born in a different country? And I think you can’t answer that question, honestly, because you don’t know. But you know there would be a lot of things different that are completely outside of your control. Where and when you were born would have a massive impact.

You and I should not pretend that if we were born in the 1960s in Nigeria, that we would have the same views about investing in the stock market over time that you and I do today. This kind of gets to the topic of luck. And a lot of people, when you bring up luck, they will say something that sounds smart that I fiercely disagree with. They say like, oh, you should increase the surface area of your luck. You should like, oh, the harder I work, the luckier I get. It’s like some variation of that. And I’m like, no, if you can do something that changes your odds of an outcome, it’s not luck by definition. Luck to me, the biggest are where and when you were born. Bill Gates couldn’t control it. Elon Musk couldn’t control it, but it has a massive impact on where you’re going to go in life. That to me is what luck is. It’s what you truly have absolutely no control over.

And then there’s also the, not only the country you’re born into, but the socioeconomic households you’re born into, the schools that you go to. How much of this is nature versus nurture versus chosen nurture? The stat that I think is so astounding is that income among brothers is more correlated than height or weight. So basically that means if you have a brother who is rich and tall, you are more likely to also be rich than you are tall. It’s more correlated than the literal DNA that you’re sharing with each other. Look, is it a perfect correlation? No. Is it possible to be raised by a poor family and become rich? Of course. Is it possible to be raised by a rich family and end up in the streets? Of course. But there’s a very strong correlation between those two.

I think people get really, can get kind of testy when you talk about luck. Because if I say that you got lucky, I look jealous. And if I say that I got lucky, I feel diminished in what I’m doing in life. So it plays a massive role, but it’s very easy to ignore the impact that it has in the world.

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SHANE PARRISH: How do we break down that contribution between luck and skill or what’s repeatable on our part?

MORGAN HOUSEL: Rather than saying, what is luck?