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Home » Transcript of Trump’s Tariffs and the Great Depression: Victor Davis Hanson

Transcript of Trump’s Tariffs and the Great Depression: Victor Davis Hanson

Read the full transcript of a conversation between Victor Davis Hanson and cohost Sami Winc on “Trump’s Tariffs and the Great Depression”, April 4, 2025.

The interview starts here:

Understanding Tariffs in Context

SAMI WINC: Hello, and welcome to the Victor Davis Hanson Show. This is our Saturday edition where we do something a little bit different in the middle segment. And today Victor is going to be talking about the Great Depression. And I think that kind of works well with the top news stories, which are over Donald Trump’s Liberation Day speech and the topic of tariffs.

Welcome back to the Victor Davis Hanson Show. Victor is the Martin and Neely Anderson Senior Fellow in Military History and Classics at the Hoover Institution and the Wayne and Marsha Busky Distinguished Fellow in History at Hillsdale College. Please come join him at his website, The Blade of Perseus. The web address is victorhanson.com, and we would love to see everybody there. There’s lots of things to read, and I think that you will enjoy the website, especially if you like Victor’s work.

So Victor, Donald Trump gave his Liberation Day speech, which seemed to be centered around tariffs and the process of the United States giving what Donald Trump called general reciprocity for tariffs.

We’ve had some reaction in the meantime to that Liberation Day speech, with the stock markets dropping a little bit – sixteen hundred points today on Thursday. Europe and China have sent out the signal that they are going to retaliate possibly. So this looks like it’s going to turn into a very big part of Donald Trump’s administration. I was wondering your thoughts on this.

Challenging Conventional Wisdom on Tariffs

VICTOR DAVIS HANSON: I have some questions about this. Number one, if tariffs are so bad, then why isn’t the economy of China, Vietnam, India, and Europe crashing? Because they have tariffs up to two hundred, three hundred percent in some aspects like Canada, but twenty, thirty percent in others. So why aren’t they having a discussion in China or Europe about how this is bad, like the Smoot-Hawley Act? Classical libertarian economics say tariffs are terrible. Why aren’t they having that internal discussion? But they’re not. Apparently they think tariffs are very good. It’s only our tariffs that are bad.

The second is they keep saying “Great Depression, Great Depression, Great Depression.” Well, we’re going to talk about the Great Depression. But my former colleague, deceased, but a brilliant man, Milton Friedman pointed out in print and in lectures – I must have heard him say this four or five times in person – that tariffs were a minor factor in the Great Depression. Most of it was monetary policy, too few dollars. There wasn’t enough money, and people were hoarding money.

But his other point was it was wild speculation in Wall Street. So my point is that the more Wall Street lectures us about depressions and tariffs causing depression, I want to say to them, no, you did. You caused depressions because you had wild stock swings. Does anybody believe some of these stocks that are being offered to the public are actually worth that? If you look at the actual earnings of companies and you look at their stock valuation, they’re way off.

Why is the world not angry at the people who started the tariffs and have asymmetrical policies, but they’re angry at the target that is finally replying?

SAMI WINC: The United States is the strongest country in the world and expected to be paternal to the rest of the nations.

Redefining the Tariff Conversation

VICTOR DAVIS HANSON: Okay, so we’re going to be a patsy for long because we think it’s 1947 forever and we’re right after World War II flush with cash and we’re the colossus astride the entire world and that’s in perpetuity? No.

The other thing is, is the word tariff even appropriate? If Europe has a ten percent, eight percent tariff on cars and we say we’re going to do the same thing, is it a tariff or is it just, are we just doing what you do?

What I’m getting at is tariffs classically as defined, going back to the Smoot-Hawley Act, were forty and fifty percent, and they were unilaterally imposed by the United States to protect industry after the 1930 stock market crash. These aren’t unilateral preemptive provocative tariffs. They are a reaction, and they’re reciprocal.

It’s like we’re on autopilot. We just say, we don’t believe in tariffs, but all we’re going to do is whatever tariffs you have, we’re going to mirror image you. So it’s your tariff. So Canada, if you have a 258 percent tariff on American butter, it’s autopilot. We’ll do the same to you. And if you don’t, we won’t. But we’re going to be completely on autopilot reactive.

I don’t even think tariff is the right word for it. They keep talking about the Smoot-Hawley Act in 1930, but if you look at those tariffs like I just said, they were astronomical. They weren’t ten percent. They weren’t even twenty-five. They were forty and fifty percent. And this is a whole different world right now.

The Real Economic Concerns

I’m more worried about the stock market being overvalued. And a whole generation of young people between the two coasts that are not getting married, they’re not having children, they can’t buy a home, they have not had a rise in real wages.

From 2005 to 2017 until Trump came in, there was no rise in middle-class wages adjusted for inflation. What good does it do to dump all this free trade stuff from China and Vietnam, for example, and Mexico in the United States and say that keeps consumer prices down if wages haven’t risen commensurately? We don’t get any break by cheaper prices if the wages are flat. And I don’t mean California artificially raising the minimum wage and driving everybody out.