Full transcript of Psychology professor Tom Griffiths’ talk on: 3 Ways to Make Better Decisions — By Thinking Like a Computer @ TED conference.
Listen to the MP3 audio: 3 ways to make better decisions – by thinking like a computer by Tom Griffiths
Tom Griffiths – Professor of Psychology and Cognitive Science
If there’s one city in the world where it’s hard to find a place to buy or rent, it’s Sydney. And if you’ve tried to find a home here recently, you’re familiar with the problem.
Every time you walk into an open house, you get some information about what’s out there and what’s on the market. But every time you walk out, you’re running the risk of the very best place passing you by.
So how do you know when to switch from looking to being ready to make an offer?
This is such a cruel and familiar problem that it might come as a surprise that it has a simple solution: 37%. If you want to maximize the probability that you find the very best place, you should look at 37% of what’s on the market, and then make an offer on the next place you see, which is better than anything that you’ve seen so far.
Or, if you’re looking for a month, take 37% of that time – 11 days, to set a standard – and then you’re ready to act.