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Home » Iran: The Illusion of a Peace Deal w/ John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt (Transcript)

Iran: The Illusion of a Peace Deal w/ John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt (Transcript)

Editor’s Notes: In this discussion, host Tom Switzer joins renowned scholars John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt to analyze the escalating tensions between the United States and Iran. The conversation explores the strategic challenges facing the Trump administration as it navigates a conflict that threatens global energy markets and economic stability. By examining Iran’s leverage over critical maritime routes like the Strait of Hormuz, the experts highlight the complex geopolitical consequences for U.S. allies and rivals alike. This video offers a critical perspective on the shifting dynamics of power in the Middle East and the difficulties of securing a lasting peace deal. (March 29, 2026) 

TRANSCRIPT:

Introduction

TOM SWITZER: Hello and welcome to Switzerland. I’m Tom Switzer. Always great to have your company. Our two guests today, Professors John Mearsheimer from the University of Chicago and Stephen Walt from Harvard University. John, Steve, always great to see you both.

STEPHEN WALT: Nice to see you. Great to be here.

Trump’s Claims of Negotiations with Iran

TOM SWITZER: Now, President Trump has paused his threatened destruction of Iranian power plants until April 6, and he’s claiming that detailed and productive negotiations with Tehran are underway. Of course, the Iranians categorically deny this. John, what’s going on?

JOHN MEARSHEIMER: Well, the fact is that the Iranians have a deep seated interest in continuing this war because it’s going very well for them. And the longer the war goes on, the more leverage they have. President Trump, despite what he says in public, surely understands that things are not going well and he’s looking for an exit ramp. And he believes that he can work out a deal, or he hopes that he can work out a deal with the Iranians, that allow him to put this war to an end on reasonably favorable terms for the United States. But again, I don’t think that’s going to happen because the incentive structure for the Iranians points in the other direction.

TOM SWITZER: John, let’s just get this straight on the issue of negotiations. The President of the United States has asserted his government is doing negotiations behind the scenes with the Iranians, but the Iranians deny this, and there is global uncertainty about whether to accept Washington’s version or the version put out by Tehran’s leaders. That’s a strange state of affairs, isn’t it?

JOHN MEARSHEIMER: I think you misspoke, Tom. I don’t think there’s global uncertainty. I think there’s global certainty that President Trump is lying.

TOM SWITZER: Yeah.

STEPHEN WALT: Can I add something here, Tom?

TOM SWITZER: Sure.

STEPHEN WALT: There are several countries that have been rumored to be involved in some kind of mediation effort, in particular Pakistan. And none of them have been saying that there are serious talks underway. It’s possible that they’ve been exchanging some messages back and forth, but the idea that there’s serious negotiations actually happening, I think, is a fiction.

Is the War Going Well? The Strategic Reality

TOM SWITZER: It’s a fiction, Steve. Max Hastings, the distinguished British historian who has been a guest on this program, he wrote over the weekend that when Trump says the war is almost won, nobody knows whether this is a prelude to a fresh bombardment, a ground invasion, or a ceasefire. What do you make of all that?

STEPHEN WALT: Well, I think that’s consistent with, first of all, the run up before the war, where we were told there were negotiations underway right up until the moment that we started bombing — we and the Israelis started bombing. I think it’s evidence here that the administration is also flailing around a little bit. They didn’t have a plan. They assumed this was all going to go very well from the very beginning and be over with the regime collapsing. That hasn’t happened. So now they’re improvising.

And just to amplify what John said a moment ago, the reason the Iranians have such an incentive to keep this going is they’re essentially trying to restore deterrence. They want the United States to pay a large enough price for this that we’ll learn not to do this sort of thing into the future. And until they’re confident that they’ve re-established deterrence, they’re likely to keep this going.

TOM SWITZER: And we should stress, just so that we’re all on the same page here, that before February 28, before the strikes started, Iran controlled a mere 4 to 5% of the world’s crude oil exports, which is essentially its own output. But by blockading the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran now controls something like 20% of the world’s oil and LNG, the liquefied natural gas, which is your point — both of you have made about Iran’s strategic leverage. John, where does all this leave Trump?

JOHN MEARSHEIMER: Well, Trump is looking for an exit strategy. He’s looking for an alternative to conceding defeat, and he can’t find one. And in the meantime, what’s happening is we’re walking up the escalation ladder slowly but steadily. And the problem that he faces there is that the Iranians hold most of the cards as you go up the escalation ladder, and we don’t have escalation dominance. And in fact, as you go up the escalation ladder, the threat to the global economy increases markedly.

So we’re in a very precarious position as we march up the escalation ladder. And this just creates greater pressure to find an exit strategy, to find some sort of way we can live with the Iranians. But the Iranians, again, as I said at the beginning of the show, have an incentive not to cut a deal now, in good part for the reasons that Steve just laid out. So Trump is between Iraq and a hard place. And I would argue that what might happen — one could argue is even likely to happen — is that the economy threatens to go off a cliff and Trump has no choice but to cut a deal with the Iranians on terms that are favorable to them, not the United States.

Trump’s April 6 Deadline and the Question of Escalation

TOM SWITZER: Well, I was just going to say, Steve, when Trump’s April 6 deadline is up and we assume that Iran won’t surrender, that it won’t accept this — what’s it called, a 15 point framework plan that the Americans have put to the Iranians — if the Iranians won’t relinquish control of the Strait of Hormuz, and just assume that Tehran keeps attacks on Israel and the Gulf states after that deadline passes on April 6, Steve, what does Trump do?

STEPHEN WALT: Well, I think we’ve all learned to not try and predict too much about what he’s going to do, but he will face the decision of: does he move up the ladder, does he try something else?